NFL Picks Week 5: Bills vs Browns Pick ATS & Predictions

NFL Picks Week 5: Bills vs Browns Pick ATS & Predictions

The Cleveland Browns are four point home favorites against the Buffalo Bills with the total sitting at 41.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Two weeks ago this Thursday’s match-up between the Browns and Bills would have looked like one of those snooze fests that always seem to sneak on to the Prime Time schedule.  Strangely, the Browns have done a 180 since they traded away Trent Richardson, winning two straight games with third stringer Brian Hoyer at the helm.  The perennially disappointing Bills have been wildly unpredictable under rookie EJ Manuel, putting up a fight against New England and beating Baltimore, while losing to the Jets and going 3-1 ATS.  I wouldn’t go so far as to say I’m excited about this game, but “somewhat interested“ wouldn‘t be a stretch.

Cleveland Browns

When the Cleveland brass traded 2012 first rounder to the Colts two weeks ago, everyone assumed they were collecting picks and tanking it in an effort to pick up a franchise QB in the QB-heavy 2014 draft.  Two weeks later and things seem to be turned around.  Previous third-stringer and Tom Brady backup, Brian Hoyer, who many believed the new Browns’ management preferred over Brandon Weeden, has led the Browns to two straight wins.  In Week 3, although he threw three INTs, he also put up 300+ yards and 3 TDs while leading Cleveland to a last minute win in Minnesota. 

He followed that up with a 17-6 victory over the allegedly stacked Bengals team and left people wondering what kind of team the Browns really are.  TE Jordan Cameron has also been a pleasant surprise and catalyst for the Browns, scoring 5 TDs to make him the second best fantasy TE in the league.

They have absolutely no run game but it hasn’t seemed to matter recently because of their defense.  The Cleveland D has sneakily become one of the best in the league and kept teams from putting up points.  Third in yards and eighth in points allowed, Joe Haden and the Browns D are a tough unit to play against. 

Buffalo Bills

New coach Doug Marrone surprised everyone when he passed on his college-QB Ryan Nassib and chose EJ Manuel as the first quarterback in this year’s draft.  Manuel has since had his moments in leading the Bills to a 2-2 record, including a game winning drive down by six to beat the Panthers (and one of our Friday Five) in Week 2.  That being said, both wins have come at home and against the Jets in New York in Week 3 Manuel was ineffective and completed less that 50% of his passes.  Overall the Bills are only 28th in passing offense.

The Buffalo run game has been solid however, good enough for 2nd in the league.  Unfortunately for Bills fans, RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, who combined for 207 yards in Sunday’s defeat of the Ravens, both suffered injuries and will be playing at less than 100% on Thursday.  How healthy they are will play a big factor in the outcome of Thursday’s game. 

One defense the Bills defense ranks 18th in points per game, 17th against the run, and 20th against the pass.  Nothing special.  However, although they are giving up lots of yards, they are doing good things against some of the league’s elite QBs, making things difficult on Tom Brady in Week 1 and forcing Joe Flacco to throw 5 INTs last week.

The Spread

Vegas has set Cleveland as four point home favorites with the total sitting around 41.  This marks the first time the Browns have been listed as favorites this year, yet they have covered the spread twice.  Despite the Bills 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS record, the Bills have yet to be listed as favorites this year. 

Although this game is more intriguing than we expected it to be two weeks ago, the game will still be an ugly one.  With two pretty mediocre teams, this is a tough one to call, but we see the Browns pulling off the SU win and cover.  Cleveland’s D is solid and will force Manuel in to mistakes on the road where he hasn’t played as well and will be forced to carry more of the offensive burden with Spiller and Jackson injured.

Until proven otherwise, Brian Hoyer and Jordan Cameron are providing the spark this offense needs to win games and the Browns should win a barn burner, 20-13.

Prediction:  CLEVELAND BROWNS (-4) vs. Buffalo Bills

                        UNDER 42