NFL Picks Week 6: Packers Ravens Pick ATS, Preview, Prediction

NFL Picks Week 6: Packers Ravens Pick ATS, Preview, Prediction

The Packers are three point favorites on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in this week’s The Spread Zone Early Game of the Week.

By:  MaChez, TSZ Expert

This Sunday, the 2011 Superbowl Champs and their 130-million dollar quarterback travel to take on the 2013 Superbowl Champs and their 120.6 million-dollar quarterback.  Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will be looking to get two straight wins and above .500 for the first time this season, while Joe Flacco and the Ravens will continue to verify that the losses they suffered in the off-season didn’t hurt them as much as we all would like to think.  This is by far the most exciting game of the morning and should be an entertaining shootout in Baltimore.

Green Bay Packers

Similar to the 2012 Packers, the 2013 Packers are starting the season a little bumpy.  Alternating wins and losses, the Packers have yet to establish a rhythm.  After two solid games and a 1-1 record to start the season, they’ve now had two straight shaky games on the way to a 2-2 overall record.  Aaron Rodgers had one of his worst games ever in Week 3 against Cincinnati and followed it up with a pretty average performance against Detroit last week.  The Packers have looked terrible in the red zone and will need to fix that issue quickly.

One crazy reason Rodgers may be off is that he finally doesn’t need to carry the team to its victories and that weight off his shoulders may be tweaking his throwing motion.  The Packers had their first 100-yard rusher in three years earlier this season and are now averaging 141 yards/game (5th in the NFL) and 5.3 yards/carry (2nd).  The D has also improved, holding RBs to 86 yards/game (5th in the NFL) and limiting the Lions to nine points last week.  The pass D looked really good with star-safety Morgan Burnett finally back from injury last week but are now overloaded with injuries at the LB position, including Clay Matthews who could miss a month with a broken thumb.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have been a tough team to figure out.  Week 1 they got blown out by Denver on the road, but six weeks in to the season that doesn’t look as embarrassing as it did at the time.  They also lost on the road to the Bills, but did have a chance in that game at the end despite Flacco throwing five picks.  Last week on the road against Miami they pulled off a 26-23 victory and looked pretty good.

On offense, Flacco and the Ravens are pretty average - #21 in total offense and #14 in points scored.  Torrey Smith has stepped up in the absence of Anquan Boldin and Jacoby Jones for over 100 yds/game while Bernard Pierce is actually the leading rusher, not Ray Rice, with 197 total yards.  On defense they aren’t the scary unit they were last year after losing several of their veterans, but they’re still falling in the middle of the pack at #14 in points and yards allowed. 

The Spread

Just like Rodgers beat out Flacco by a bit with his contract, Vegas sees the Packers beating out the Ravens by a bit as three point road favorites with the total at 48.5. 

The Ravens basically have two weapons on offense, the run game, and Torrey Smith.  The Packers stout run D will limit Pierce and Rice and Flacco will be forced to throw to Smith a lot.  With Matthews and CB Casey Hayward out, Flacco should be able to move the ball through the air, but it will be tough with the D zeroing in on Smith.

On the other side of the ball, the new Ravens D will have their hands full with a Packers offense that is very comparable in talent to the Broncos team they lost bad to in Week 1 (two better-than-good WRs, one super-talented slot receiver, and a physical-beast TE).  TE Jermichael Finley had two TDs the last time these two teams met and should have another big day against a team that’s allowing TEs to go off this season.

Rodgers hasn’t had a “great” game since Week 2 (four weeks ago) which is an anomaly for one of the game’s most elite passers.  He should have a huge day on Sunday with the Ravens forced to cover all his weapons while also accounting for the Packers’ new run game.  This Packers offense that ranks #3 in total offense, #3 in points, #4 in passing, #5 in rushing, and #1 in run blocking will be too much for Flacco to keep pace with and the Packers will win this game by at least a TD. 

PREDICTION:  Green Bay Packers (-3) at BALTIMORE RAVENS

                                OVER 48.5