Gambling is ridiculous.
Sometimes I reminisce about the days when I would get excited simply because baseball season was around the corner, or my favorite basketball team in the line-up for TNT's Thursday Night double header, or the Super Bowl (no matter who was playing) was just a few short days away. I remember when I'd get all geeked up because Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee were going to face each other in the NLCS opener, never once wondering what the over/under was or who was favored to win. It was the Giants, of course. It was always the Giants.
Today, however, I scour the Internet after Monday Night Football, looking for an edge in the UL Lafayette Arkansas State Tuesday Night Sunbelt Conference showdown, learning more than anyone should ever know about this un-historic rivalry. Today I study split stats, look at World Series Game 1's passed, and bet confidently that a pair of veteran aces on the hill in Boston will earn me the sure-fire under. Today I also turn the TV off in disgust after the first inning, cursing myself for not remembering Adam Wainright's first inning woes.
Tonight I am 100% certain that the NHL is the only place to make money as a gambler. Last it was the NCAA. The night before that the NFL, and prior to that several other acronyms ending in L have made the cut. Today I have gambling rules that change with the results of every game. No more parlays. No more teasers. Only four-team teasers. No overlapping parlay/teaser/round robins. No betting on preseason NBA. Only betting on the New Orleans Pelicans. And finally, no more betting on mascots that don't inspire fear or excitement. Man I miss the WNBA.
Minnesota Lynx vs Atlanta Dream
Gambling, dear readers, is truly ridiculous.
The best thing to do, really, is to keep both your heart and your pocketbooks out of it. For now, however, open your hearts and minds to these possibilities, as Marco and I bring you our NFL Picks for Week 8. Yes, it's true we've been awful as you can see on our Expert Picks Page. However, we do feel some momentum coming off our bye week with the following stats:
Last week: 7-8 ATS, plus two of our experts were 8-7 ATS (way to go Todd and Laura)
Friday Five: 3-2 ATS - it only took half the season, but we did it.
Over/Under to Date: 62-45 - now that's not bad at all
Okay, we're putting all of that on the line this week with our 13 Solid Gold Lickity Clickity Locks of the Week. As usual, picks in bold and HOME TEAMS in CAPS. And as usual, "locks" means "toss up." We're interested to know your thoughts, so after you glean the amazing knowledge below, please light up the comments board, send us an e-mail (vinnyandmarco@gmail.com), or just buy us a cup of coffee (Donate button) we can cry into on Sunday night.
Thursday Night Football
Carolina Panthers (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Well, Tampa Bay should have an even better defense next year when Jadaveon Clowney joins their ranks. With Doug Martin out for what might be the season, the winless Bucs don't stand a chance against a Carolina Panthers squad that is beginning to roll. Although Tampa Bay's young quarterback has appeared serviceable for the Bucs, his two games have come against the less than stellar defenses of the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles. If he doesn't throw three picks against the Panthers secondary, I will buy him a CostCo-sized bottle of acne medication for his trip to eighth grade next year. On the other side of the ball, Cam Newton still isn't Superman, but he has been super-sizing his QBR rating the past two weeks into the ranks of the other elite quarterbacks around the league. This will be a low-scoring rout. Panthers 24-10. Give up the TD and take the UNDER.
Expert Team: 5-0 Carolina
International Sunday Morning Football
San Francisco Forty Niners (-16.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville is hoping that the extra couple of time zones the Forty Niners have to cross will slow down their offense just enough for the Jags to stay within a couple of touchdowns and steal the backdoor cover late in the game. Unfortunately, there is no number of time zones crossed nor countries in the world visited where the current brand of football being played by Jaguars is going to earn either victories or ATS covers. Jacksonville comes into the game with an 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS record and hasn't come closer that 14 points to any team in any part of the world. The Forty Niners, on the other hand, since losing to the Colts at home a month ago, have convincingly won and covered four games in a row. Give up as many points as it takes and enjoy some crumpets, fish and chips, shepherd's pie, and several warm beers while you watch this rout and glimpse the future. Niners and the UNDER.
Expert Team: 4-1 Niners
Regular Old American Sunday Morning Football
DETROIT LIONS (-3) over Dallas Cowboys: This was an over-valued vs. under-valued play. The Cowboys are coming off a less-than-impressive (to us) victory over a less-than-impressive (to everyone) Philadelphia Eagles team while the Detroit Lions lost at home to a playoff-bound Cincinnati Bengals squad. The Lions are still favored, and they should be. It was tempting to take the points, but the continued absence of DeMarcus Ware and the DeMarco Murray will ultimately be the downfall of the Cowboys as they continue to make the NFC East race interesting with their mediocrity. We'll give up the field goal and take the OVER.
Expert Team: 3-2 Lions
New York Giants (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: With Nick Foles out and Michael Vick back in, it also means winning is out, and losing is returning to the starting line-up. Yes, it's nice to have a mobile, dual-threat quarterback, but not ones made of porcelain when there's a better long-term solution on the bench. I guess there's a blueprint for stopping Chip Kelly's offense and it's called Watch-Them-Shoot-Themselves-In-The-Foot-With-Injuries-And-Poor-Decision-Making. Are the Giants over-valued coming into this game off a widely-viewed Monday Night Football win over the really, really bad Minnesota Viking's offense? You bet they are. But they're also pretty big underdogs, and if Eli Manning can just relax and stop trying to do so much, getting the ball to his athletic, talented receivers will feel like walking on the moon against the Philly defense. Take the points, but expect a ton of them - take the UNDER.
Expert Team: 3-2 Giants
I'm One...hit away from the end of my career.
Cleveland Browns (+7.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: It was tempting to take the Chiefs in this spot because they're the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL, they've climbed the power rankings of every sports site out there, they have a stellar defense, and they play well at home. If, however, we learned anything from last week, it's that not only can the Chiefs win tough, close games, but also that Andy Reid does some pretty conservative play-calling in order to do so. His rhyming motto has always been: Up by less than three points late, run and punt to seal our fate.
We also learned that the Chiefs play close games against the tougher defenses in the league like the Texans and the Cowboys. If Cleveland is one thing, it's a defensive ball club. They haven't been playing well lately, but their secondary can and will keep them in games. We see another Chief's win: 17-13. Take the points and the UNDER.
Expert Team: 4-1 Browns
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-12.5) over Buffalo Bills: When every single one of our experts is taking the Buffalo Bills, we feel confident that the New Orleans Saints is the team to roll with. Even Psychic Granny C saw the shape of a Buffalo in her coffee grounds this morning and changed her pick. I do understand the prisoner of the moment mentality with the Bills coming into the game way over-valued after a road win in Miami where Ryan Tannehill threw two INTs for the 3-3 Dolphins, while the Saints are coming in off a bye week after losing their perfect season to New England the week before on a last-second TD by future HOF Tom Brady.
Sure the Bills haven't lost a game by more than 7 this year, but a lot teams have said that heading into the Super Dome in New Orleans. I really think New Orleans bye week has people forgetting just how awesome they've looked. Let me lay some stats on you. The New Orleans Saints have won 7 of their last 8 home games dating back to last year (when they sucked) with their average margin of victory resting at a comfortable 19 points, including a six-point win over the Falcons in Week 1. It's a big number, but trust me - it's big to lure the Bills backers...and it's working. Jimmy Graham or no Jimmy Graham, we'll give up the points an watch Drew Brees win and cover with a 38-17 OVER.
Expert Team: 4-1 Bills
Miami Dolphins (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Tough call - two undervalued teams facing off at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. Much like we'll say about the Bills above, the Miami Dolphins had played well on the road until they went to New Orleans a few weeks ago and lost by 21. Other than that, the Dolphins haven't lost a game by more than 3 points and fared well away from home in wins over the Browns and the Colts. This is not your slightly older brother's New England Patriots. They have struggled in both victory and defeat and their only win of more than a touchdown came in Week 3 at home against the pre-complete-implosion Tampa Bay Bucs. We like the underdog here and a slight lean towards the OVER.
Expert Team: 3-2 Patriots
Sunday Afternoon Football
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) over New York Jets: We had the Jets, we liked that pick. But then we remembered what the Bengals have been doing to the comfortable picks we like the past two weeks. This Cincinnati squad is on a mission to return to the playoffs and make a deep run. In order to do that, they will have to compete for home field advantage. In order to do that, they will have to win at home. The Jets are a tempting take at 6.5 points. They'll stop the Bengals, but the Bengals will stop them more. This will be a little higher scoring than it looks on paper - give up the points and take OVER in a Bengals 27-17 win.
Expert Team: 4-1 Bengals
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh certainly isn't the team they've been in seasons past. In fact, they were a much better squad last year...when they lost all three of their games SU/ATS against teams from the AFC West. And yes, one of those was the Oakland Raiders (and another was Tim Tebow in the playoffs) who beat the Steelers 34-31 last September as 4 point home dogs. Deja vu? Absolutely, except the Raiders defense is better and the Steelers offense is worse. Take the points, the home dog, and the OVER.
Expert Team: 3-2 Steelers
DENVER BRONCOS (-13.5) over Washington Redskins: Another classic over-valued/under-valued match-up. Everyone saw the emotionally fatigued Peyton Manning's sub-par performance on the road in Indianapolis last Sunday night, so the public is all over the Redskins this week to the tune of 90% ATS because Washington finally got a second win - at home, against a second-string quarterback, barely, at the last possible minute. This week altitude thins both the air and the Redskins hopes of ever seeing .500 this season. Give up the two touchdowns and watch the Redskins run out of gas at halftime. I think the Broncos go OVER yet again, too.
Expert Team: 3-2 Broncos
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: Seriously? The Cardinals are favored? I know the Falcons have been bad and they're banged up all over, but the same could be said of the Cardinals. Arizona has the better defense, but Atlanta has the better offense. Plus, both Marco and I picked up Harry Douglas in our fantasy leagues and expect big things. This should be a pick 'em at worst, so we'll take the points in the desert. If you need a back-up QB, however, because Andrew Luck is on a bye, pick up Carson Palmer. This should be shoot out. Taking points and the OVER.
Expert Team: 4-1 Falcons
Sunday Night Football
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+9.5) over Green Bay Packers: I know, I know - all those crazy Prime Time stats that don't support backing the Vikings, but...
It looks like QB Josh Freeman is out and former starter Christian Ponder is back in as the Minnesota Vikings starter this weekend against the Green Bay Packers. Asked if he was putting a lot of pressure on himself earlier this season after the Vikings made the post-season in 2012, Ponder said, "God no. I had nothing to with that. That was all A.P." Actually, what he really said was, "I think I was playing with a lot of pressure on myself before and never felt in sync. Now is the opportunity to take that deep breath and go out and have fun again. I already got benched, so it can't get worse than that," he said. Ponder has a point - when you're an athletic, white millionaire playing a sport for a living, I guess it doesn't get worse than that. In other news, these signs have been posted all over the Metrodome
and everyone on the Vikings staff has been instructed to speak to Adrian Peterson with said accent in hopes that he will have the kind of breakout game fantasy and reality owners have been waiting for since the Vikes sole win over Pittsburgh in London. We'll take the 9 plus points and the UNDER.
Expert Team: 4-1 Packers
Monday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS: With Sam Bradford out for the season, the Rams have put calls out to Vince Young, Tim Tebow, and Jimmy Clausen to see if they know anyone who can play quarterback. Other than that if you want reasons to back the Rams, you could point to the stellar 26 points/game the Rams have given up at home this year or the fact that even with Bradford they averaged about 300 yards/game of TOTAL offense, including 70 yards/game on the ground. Terrible. The Seahawks have been and continue to be money ATS, cashing in on about 75% of their games over the past three years. Monday Night, division rivalry or not, won't be any different. Give up the points in a low-scoring, one-sided UNDER. Seahawks 31-7.
Expert Team: 5-0 Seahawks
We're definitely in, Seattle.
Good luck out there, everyone. Enjoy the mediocre NFL line-up by pouring ridiculousness all over it.
Vinny and Marco
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