NFL Picks Week 5: Niners vs Chiefs ATS - Friday Five

Last Week's Record: 3-2 ATS

Season to Date: 12-8 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 3-1 ATS

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NFL Picks Week 5: Friday Five Top Confidence Picks

#5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (+2.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS: To Marco and me, these guys don't look like your dad's Charlie Browns anymore. In fact, as they've been building towards success (for the past three decades), they've quietly gone 3-1-1 coming out of their bye weeks the past few years. The Titans, on the other hand, have lost their last three games as home favorites and are still uncertain about the status of starting quarterback Jake Locker. Even with Locker, Tennessee has struggled to put points on the board (1.3/drive), so we'll take our chances and the points and Cleveland's QB Brian Hoyer's 5-1 ATS record as a starter. 



#4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6.5) over New York Jets: Philip Rivers has been nothing short of sensational this year, racking up 39 points last week for my fantasy team while carrying his reality team to a 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS start. Although the underdog has dominated the last six meetings going 5-1 ATS, recent history has the Jets going 2-4-2 ATS in their last eight road games, and 6-13-1 in last 20 games as underdogs of eight or fewer points. More importantly, recent history also has Geno Smith as their struggling quarterback. He has become the Geico of the NFL - he'll save you 15 points in 15 minutes or your money back. We'll give him six and a half and take the Chargers. And just for fun, I'm bringing back an old picture of my daughter interviewing him after a tough game.



#3. NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5) over Atlanta Falcons: Who doesn't love Halloween? Free candy, cool costumes, the marked beginning of the holiday season? Eli Manning doesn't, that's who. In fact, if he could dress up as anyone - besides his brother Peyton - it would be Bill Murray in Ground Hog's Day so he could replay the month of October (a career 29-7) over and over and over. We never feel great picking the Giants, but at -4.5 this line looks way too Atlanta friendly for a team that has a terrible defense, a decimated O-line, and a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 games. This one could get ugly.



#2. Cincinnati Bengals (-1) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Teams that win the running battle this season have covered games to the tune of 40-20-1 ATS. That's as money as Tom Brady used to be when he had protection, reliable receivers, the novelty of youth, and an AFC that rivaled basketball's Eastern Conference. Until this year, Marco and I never really thought the Bengals were legit, and every post-season they validated that belief. Not anymore. This Cincinnati team is not only going to run away with their division, they'll be accepting a first-round bye in the playoffs. Look for a stunning home loss as the Patriots fall below .500 in the AFC Least.



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May the Spreads Be With You all,

Vinny and Marco

Spurs Thunder Pick Game 4 - 5/27/14

What's the opposite of prophetic? After boasting a 2-0 Sunday with a perfect hockey score prediction, Marco and I hit our first 0-fer in a couple of weeks, missing on the NBA, the NHL, and the MLB. I knew we should have gone with the WNBA. The Minnesota Lynx helped us win all of our early NFL losses back last year.

NBA Playoff Record: 39-38-1 ATS

NHL Playoff Record: 2-1-1 

MLB Record: 0-2

NBA

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-2.5) over San Antonio Spurs: There's a lot of action coming in on the Spurs because of Coach Pop and his legendary ability to get his teams to bounce back. We believe the Spurs will win this series, but it's starting to have the feel of a long one and that means heading back to S.A. knotted at two. The favorite/home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings and the Spurs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 visits to OKC. With a playoff atmosphere, we don't see that changing. We're recommending laying the points and for totals players the UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11.



Random Stat of the Night: Play On – Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) when trailing in a playoff series, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
152-91 since 1997. ( 62.6% | 51.9 units )
7-6 this year. ( 53.8% | 0.4 units )

MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers/Cincinnati Reds - UNDER 6.5: Greinke has been stellar all year and the Reds Alfredo Simon has not been seen by many Dodgers. All indications point to a low-scoring affair.

Toronto Blue Jays (-125) over Tampa Bay Rays: Mark Buerhle on the mound + Blue Jays playing some of the best baseball in the majors = W.

OAKLAND A's (-120) over Detroit Tigers: Sonny Gray baby, plus Max Scherzer's ERA on the road this year is approaching 4. That will be enough as Sonny continues to dominate the majors.

NHL

MONTREAL CANADIANS (-110) over New York Rangers: Montreal finds a way to send this series back to New York. No reason - just the way it's going to be.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Nets vs Heat Game 5 Pick ATS

Did the universe hear me say we'd retire if we ever hit both games in a single night? Are cyber space and outer space now equally tired of all the trash we mindlessly dump in them? Who cares - with the Wizards and the Clippers covering last night our NBA playoff stats are finally above .500. And it only took 68 games.

NBA Playoffs Round 2 Record: 10-7-1 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 11-11-1 ATS

2014 Overall NBA Playoff Record: 34-33-1 ATS

Hindsight is always 20-20, but I feel as though last night's success hinged more upon the psychology of basketball rather than the numbers and trends between the teams, which tend to decrease in usable value as a seven game playoff series goes on. If Washington is 11-1 ATS heading into the series - back them. If they're 12-4 ATS after falling behind 3 games to 1, that ATS record smells a little dodgy. Did we expect Washington to win the game in Indy by 30? Absolutely not. But we did expect the combination of Indiana letting down their guard and Washington having their backs against the wall to yield a close game. As far as the Clippers/Thunder, who didn't see another huge lead blown in the final minutes of the game ending in a devastating road loss? As far as the phantom calls and missed calls - what goes around comes around. The Clippers had a seven-point lead with 48 seconds left, so there's no excuse for losing that game. Onward and upward to tonight's pivotal Game 5's in Miami and San Antonio. And by pivotal, I mean series ending. 

Brooklyn Nets (+7) over MIAMI HEAT: Throw out the numbers - they don't support this pick. The one great thing about veteran ball clubs is they have short-term memories. That was as devastating loss in Game 4 for the Nets, but it also took a near 50 point performance by LBJ to pull it off. That will at least instill enough hope for the Nets to battle long and hard - before ultimately losing. The UNDER looks like the best bet of all. 

Portland Trailblazers (+8) over SAN ANTONIO SPURS: The best thing about young teams is they do have a short-term memory, and in this case it's telling them they can compete with the Spurs. The unbeatable aura of the Spurs took a chink to the armor on Monday, and we believe Rip City carries that confidence into Game 5. Once again, we don't think it will be enough to continue the series, but it should be enough to cover. 

Top Confidence Pick: Portland Trailblazers (+8)

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

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