Making a Bed We'll Have to Lie In: A Short Story By Vinny and Marco

Going into Thursday night's preseason finale, Marco and I knew we had an uphill battle when it came to picking games against the spread. In researching the games, we quickly realized that the Over/Under might be easier to gauge based on the experience of a team's back-up quarterback or the win-at-all-costs (Jim Schwartz) or momentum (Jim Harbaugh) philosophies of some of the coaches. Although Marco cautioned me, "If we're good at this, you know they'll ask us to keep doing it." How good could we be - it's the preseason. It's like shooting fish in a barrel - if it's night time and the barrel is actually an Arctic, fish-less ocean.



Okay, I'm exaggerating. The fourth week of the NFL preseason is typically an UNDER heavy week with all of the back-ups and their back-ups fighting for the remaining roster spots before Saturday's final cuts, so if you have a large bankroll you could bet UNDER across the board and walk away a moderate winner at 9-7 or 10-6.

OR...

You could just read The Spread Zone  where Marco and I - after a stellar first week of rolling our old Dungeons and Dragons 40-sided die, ended up with hit points, charisma, and a promotion to Dungeon Master. I know, I had you at 40-sided die, right? If you'll recall, our picks included 7 OVERs to go with the standard preseason UNDERs, and the results were:

TSZ's 2013 Preseason Stats

Thursday Night: 8-8 ATS

Preseason to Date: 29-19 ATS

Over/Under: 13-3

As my three year-old daughter likes to say, "Dad, that's blossom." So will we be including OVER/UNDERS in our weekly analysis? That is a conversation Marco and I will have with our expert team this weekend. It might be pretty cool to retire at 13-3, claim an 81% success rate in our advertising campaigns, but never, ever pick another game. Beats sticking around too long...



So that was the preseason, folks, and if you're not excited about football season starting after all that, then you're probably one of the misguided folks who ended up at The Spread Zone looking for porn. True story - in the first month of TSZ our number one source of traffic was from porn site frequenters looking for a different kind of spread.



In addition to this preseason wrap, I've added a couple of other articles on The Spread Zone with some interesting takeaways from this year's preseason. As sports bettors, it's important to find a balance between research and TMI - too much information. Take things with a grain of salt, and remember - if you try something and it works, it's called "a system," but if you try some thing and it doesn't, it's called information.

See you all back at The Spread Zone,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Preseason Week 4: All the ATS and O/U You Can Handle

When he looked at the lines for Week 4 of the NFL preseason, Marco said, "I don't think we should touch these. Why risk our beautiful 21-11 ATS record heading into the regular season?" I was inclined to agree with him. In fact, I may have been the one who said it. The truth is I may have been talking to myself the whole time, trying to wrap my brain around the metaphorical coin flip that is the final week of preseason football while frantically researching for an edge.



Regardless of the circumstances or who was speaking, by the end of the day I knew what had to be done. What if the Starship Enterprise had stopped boldly going where men hadn't been after they found Spock in the third movie? What if George Lucas had decided that Return of the Jedi was interplanetary acrimony for the next few generations? What if MJ said, "I'm good with three. Baseball is awesome?"



The answers: they wouldn't have made that stupid movie about saving the whales, we would have been spared the poor acting of a young Anakin Skywalker, and the Utah Jazz might have won an NBA title. So basically, nothing good really comes from going forward into the fourth anything. Nonetheless, we persist. It's what we do. We're a sports betting site for Pete's sake. We don't cower in the shadows of Vegas odds makers, we rise above them, cast our stones and make them wonder if they set the lines right.

Are you with me? I know Stan is, because he was the voice of reason that came through electronic mail that said the simple words, "I'd like you to give Week 4 a try," and it was enough. So, without further adieu, let's save some freakin' whales, watch some stupid special effects, and make sure a basketball championship never makes its way to Salt Lake City.

NFL Preseason Week 4: Electric Boogalu



Don't expect much detail, but we are throwing in the added bonus of Over/Unders this week to hedge our bets a little. As role models in the gambling community, I feel it is my duty to tell you to take it easy on these games. We have real football just around the corner and as much fun as it is to bet, you might want to get your fix on a solid pitcher or hot WNBA team. Nonetheless, in spite of the lines, the match-ups, and the likely sub-par execution we're about to witness, here's our best (albeit skinny) analysis of tomorrow's games.

Detroit Lions (-4.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: Third string quarterback Jeff Tuel (unfortunate name) will be getting a lot of pass play opportunities to learn the playbook for opening day while the Lions still have a wide receiver competition going on. These facts make the OVER look very attractive. The fact that the Bills have sucked this preseason and Jim Schwartz is trying to erase the memory of a 4-12 season, makes the Lions equally attractive. Lay the points, take the OVER.


        Look - a whole family of Tuels

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over NEW YORK JETS: The Eagles are planning to try some of their regular season playbook, while the Jets are just trying to get to the regular season in one piece. Back-up quarterback and former starter Nick Foles will take the majority of first half snaps and has shown himself to be very efficient. We like Philly and a lot of points - OVER.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Both back-up QBs, Shaun Hill and Ryan Fitzpatrick, have been NFL starters in their careers which lends itself to the OVER. Other than that we'd like to take a home dog in a loud stadium, but something tells us the Titans running game is deep enough to put enough points on the board to win and cover this game.

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS: I know I mentioned it before, but it merits repeating that Texans coach Gary Kubiak in Games 1 & 2 off the preseason is 14-4 SU but only 6-11 SU after that. He's like that guy who tries to impress during the courting process, but could care less about chivalry once the ring is on his finger. We're taking the 'Boys in Houston and the UNDER.



KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5) over Green Bay Packers: Neither one of these head coaches is likely to show their offensive hands a week before the regular season and will be focusing on defense and special teams instead. As a result, we'll take the home team, lay the points, and take the UNDER.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (-7) over Baltimore Ravens: Rams coach Jeff Fisher is 11-4 SU in Week 4 of the preseason, and St. Louis has an on-going battle at back-up QB between Kellen Clemons and Austin Davis, which bodes well for both the Rams and the OVER.

CHICAGO BEARS (+1) over Cleveland Browns: In a battle of defensive squads, this game - like many of them - comes down to the back-up quarterbacks Jason Campbell (Browns) and Jordan Palmer (Bears), neither of which will do enough to merit betting anything but the UNDER. Take the home dog in a low-scoring affair.



NEW ORLEANS (+6) over Miami Dolphins: There are compelling stats to back picking the Dolphins, but we don't think you can give a Sean Payton team six points no matter what string he's playing. His playbook is that good. We advise taking the Saints and the UNDER which has hit in Miami's last six home games.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are likely looking to their Week 1 match-up with Oakland while Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is looking at last week's game and how Cincinnati needs to improve. The Bengals are 7-2 SU/ATS at home after a preseason loss and the UNDER has hit in their last six games against the AFC and their last four games at home. Take the Bengals and the UNDER.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) over ATLANTA FALCONS: We just don't think Mike Smith or the Falcons have anything to prove, while the Jags will take a win no matter when it comes. Look for a road victory for the Jags - the last of the year. And the UNDER.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers: Neither starting quarterback will play, both teams have work to do on offense, and we think the Panthers are a little deeper when it comes to point scorers. Take Carolina and the UNDER.



Washington Redskins (-2) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: I could play quarterback for Mike Shanahan in Week 4 of the preseason and he'd come out victorious. The guy is 12-3 SU in the last week of the preseason, and it appears the Redskins are about six deep behind center. We see Washington finishing a perfect preseason and hitting the OVER yet again.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5) over New York Giants: Neither one of these teams has looked particularly good this preseason, but somehow we know when the regular season kicks off next week - they'll be fine. In the meantime, both teams have depth on offense, but are a bit shallow on the defensive end, so as the third and fourth stringers come in, we see a points fiesta. Tom Coughlin's preseaon O/U record 43-29 while Bill Belichick's is 48-27 including 3-0 this year. Take the Pats and the OVER.

DENVER BRONCOS (PK) over Arizona Cardinals: I would stay away from this game. I think the Cards are out to win games and the Broncos don't care. Nonetheless, anything can happen at altitude, so we're saying the Cardinals join the Mile High Club when Denver sticks them with a loss. Take the UNDER, too.



San Francisco Forty Niners (PK) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Why on earth would Jim Harbaugh show anything or do anything that would jeopardize the health or future of his Super Bowl bound team? He wouldn't and won't, so the Chargers will take the meaningless victory in an OVER shootout.

Oakland Raiders (+7) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: As bad as the Raiders have been, they haven't lost by more than 8 during this preseason. Sure Pete Carroll wants to win every game, but I think he'll be smart and focus on the back-up running back battle still going on between Christine Michael and Robert Turbin. A low-scoring affair that will be closer than most think will ensue. Surprise everyone and take the Raiders and the UNDER.

That's all folks. Enjoy your Thursday and count the days until next week.

Bet Cautiously,

Vinny and Marco

NFC West Preview: Over/Under Predictions for All Four Teams

Sheepless In Seattle and Other Goofy Titles

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

A lot of hype going into the season is surrounding the NFC West after Russell Wilson completely outplayed his draft spot and height and Colin Kaepernick did 55% of the work to get the 49ers to the Superbowl.  The christening of these two as some of the best quarterbacks in the league after just one (or half of a) year starting for two stacked teams is surprising to me (see Cam Newton, Year 2) and I’m curious to see if they maintain their status.  The Rams and Cardinals are somewhat in re-building mode with the Rams at the tail-end of it and the Cardinals completely changing things up to create for an interesting year out West (and in St. Louis).

San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 10.5 wins

2012: 11-4-1, 1^st in the NFC West, 2nd in the NFC

Finally we get to the 49ers, the favorites out of the NFC to win the Super Bowl.  Last year’s runner up, the 49ers come in to this season with high expectations and should be extremely dangerous.  Basically the only negative thing coming from San Francisco this off-season was Colin Kaepernick’s lack of understanding of the term “face of the franchise.”  I mean, other than the obvious reasons, wouldn’t it be strange if Bill Gates decided to wear this unitard to the beach and tell everyone “it’s just swag, it ain’t never hurt nobody.”

  

Fortunately Kaepernick’s football talent is ahead of his maturity and his grammatical knowledge regarding the use triple negatives in sentences, and he’s one of the least likely second year quarterbacks to regress this year.  However, with last year WR1 Michael Crabtree out for the season with a torn Achilles, Mario Manningham recovering from a torn ACL, Randy Moss in the broadcast booth, last year’s first round pick A.J. Jenkins traded to the Chiefs due to underperformance, and Vernon Davis a rare target of Kaep’s, the bulk of the load will fall on the shoulders of new arrival Anquan Boldin.  Luckily for him, the O-Line is strong and allows Frank Gore, LaMichael James, and Kaepernick to run the ball well.

On defense, Star ILB Patrick Willis anchors the unit and had them as the #2 defense last year according to Football Outsiders.  The entire front seven is scary with DE Justin Smith the beauty to OLB Aldon Smith’s beast, NaVorro Bowman next to Willis at ILB, and former fifth-pick-overall, Glenn Dorsey coming over from the Chiefs to play nose tackle.  The secondary isn’t as scary, but with the drafting of safety Eric Reid and signing of former shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha they shouldn’t be an issue.

Looking at the schedule, the 49ers don’t have it too bad. Unlike the Seahawks, they get most of their tougher matchups at home (GB, IND, HOU, ATL) and most of their easier games on the road (TEN, JAC, WAS, TB).  Only two of the games are on the East Coast and only the Tampa Bay game is at 10am.  The JAC game is at 10am also, but it’s in London and c’mon, it’s Jacksonville.  Even giving Tampa Bay that one game, it’s hard to find surefire losses for the 49ers.  The Week 1 matchup against the Packers could be the most important game of the season, likely determining home field in the playoffs and possibly the NFC championship game.  I see the 49ers going 12-4 and recommend taking the OVER 11 Wins.

St. Louis Rams - Over/Under 7 Wins

2012: 7-8-1, 3^rd in the NFC West

Like a Starburst, St. Louis was the contradiction of the NFL last year.  Although they finished with a sub-.500 record and in third place in the NFC West, they did hold the best division record at 4-1-1, including never losing to San Francisco.  The team looks to be moving in the right direction after one of the best drafts of the off-season.

         The Evolution of Sam Bradford

Former first-pick-overall, quarterback Sam Bradford enters his fourth season - officially becoming the face of the franchise after God finally answered running back Steven Jackson’s career long prayer to leave St. Louis for a contender.  Fortunately, Bradford will finally have someone to throw to now that they drafted Tavon Austin and his WVU teammate Stedman Bradley and signed ex-Tennessee tight end Jared Cook.  The #1 and #2 WRs from last year are still around, but Austin instantly skyrockets the level of talent at receiver and should be crazy good.  With another former-first-pick-overall in OT Jake Long added in the off-season to protect Bradford‘s blindside, he will have no excuses if he doesn’t play up to expectations this year. 

On the other side of the ball, Jake’s brother-from-another-great-great-great…grand-mother, Chris Long, anchors one of the best defensive lines in the league (second against the run, third against the pass according to Football Outsiders). Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins make up one of the best cornerback tandems in the league but unfortunately for the Rams their safeties are terrible. A decent line backing corps lead by the new #1 bald, white linebacker James Laurinaitis, will help shore things up back there and the whole defensive group should again pose difficulties for the division.

Looking at the Rams schedule, they obviously don’t have it too easy being in the NFC West, but that didn’t hamper them last year and I think they’ll be able to manage at least three wins from their division rivals again this year.  The line is set at seven wins so they’ll need to find four more outside the division.  Games against Jacksonville, Carolina, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay sound like good places to get them.  Other than that, they do have three playoff contenders from 2012 plus the Bears, Cowboys and Saints on the schedule but I don’t see them having any issues hitting the over.  The defense is loaded, Fisher’s a good coach, and Bradford should have a big year now that he finally has weapons.  I actually see them going 10-6 as the surprise #2 team in the division and recommend taking the OVER 7 Wins.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 10.5 Wins

2012: 11-5*, 2^nd in the NFC West, 5^th in the NFC

Seattle was a pleasant surprise last year when they went 11-5* after two straight 7-9 seasons.  Rookie QB Russell Wilson was also a surprise, first stealing the starting job from Matt Flynn and then becoming the first QB in NFL history to throw a game-winning interception in only his third NFL start.  Even though he has talent, it will be a battle living up to the expectations for this season.

Although his offensive line is pretty average, with the exception of LT Russel Okong, Wilson helps with his legs and has Marshawn Lynch consistently going beast mode behind him to keep defenses honest.  Also helping Wilson out (eventually) is new arrival Percy Harvin who GM John Schneider traded for in the off-season on the way to his goal of collecting all of Brett Favre’s 2009 receiving corps.  They aren‘t trading cards, John…  Wilson will still have to rely on Sidney Rice and Golden Tate like last year for the first half of the season while Harvin recovers from a hip injury.  Not a bad player to have in your back pocket for a late-season playoff run.

On defense the Seahawks are oversaturated with talent.  A prime example of this is standout second-year DE Bruce Irvin being moved to a made-up DE/LB role just to keep him on the field (when the league allows him there) with the arrival of ex-Lion DE Cliff Avril to the Seahawks‘ talented D-Line.  Cornerback Antoine Winfield also left the NFC North for Seattle and gives them three of the top ten CBs with Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner at 1 and 2.  Even at linebacker they’re set with one of last year’s top defensive rookies in Bobby Wagner. 

So, they’re Super Bowl bound, right? Wrong. I know I’m in the minority here, but I don’t see the Seahawks doing so well this year.  First of all - their schedule.  Yes, the Seahawks have the best home-field advantage in the league and should do well there this year with TEN, TB, JAC, MIN and NO at home.  However, they are also one of the worst away teams and will be without the 12^th Man for most of their tough match-ups with CAR, HOU, IND, ATL, and NYG on the road. To make matters worse, all five of those games are at 10am PST when Seattle is significantly worse (1-3 in 2012 with losses to MIA, DET, and STL) and four are on the east coast where they have lost eight of nine 10am games since 2008.  Even with CAR to start the season, I wouldn’t be shocked by an 0-5 non-division road record.

              Not on the road, they can't

Secondly, the only thing not making this a 2011-Eagles-esque Dream Team is Vince Young not being around to name it that.  The hype is sky high and along with a lot of big ego, questionable character guys from last year (look at all the suspensions), they also brought in talented veterans who desperately took less than they deserved on short term deals to win a Super Bowl.  With positions now over-filling with talent and three 2012 playoff teams in their first five games, how will all these superstars react if they go 2-3 or 1-4 to start the season and don’t think they’re getting used correctly or playing enough?  What’s that quote about too many cooks in one kitchen?  I’m guessing it’s not one of Wilson and Pete Carroll’s little sayings, but there is such a thing as too many shepherds. I’m using my “one crazy pick” card:  I see Seattle going 9-7 this year, good for 3^rd in the division, and recommend taking the Under 10.5 Wins.


Arizona Cardinals

2012: 5-11, 4^th in the NFC West 

After a strong start to 2012, the Cardinals completely tanked it the rest of the season leading to the ousting of the coaching staff and basically half their starters.  New GM Steve Keim was busy filling during the holes during the off-season and new head coach Bruce Arians will have plenty of work to do pulling it all together in one of the NFL’s strongest divisions. 

Ever since Kurt Warner left, the Cardinals have been rotating through a list of ex-Phoenix University quarterbacks.  After seeing what Andy Dalton is doing in Cincy, they finally decided to acquire Carson Palmer, although part of that uptrade (upgrade/trade…) required Palmer to promise not to read how many sacks his new O-Line gave up last year (58!) and to please give up certain sponsors. The Cardinals used their seventh overall pick on  highly talented guard, Jonathan Cooper to fix it, but he broke his leg on Saturday leaving the job of improving the line to Winston Justice, Levi Brown, and Bobbie Massie. 

Keim was also aggressive in fixing the running back position after Beanie Wells left the team and Ryan Williams keeps injuring himself. He brought in ex-Pittsburgh Steeler Rashard Mendenhall and picked up two RBs in the draft - Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington.  When he’s not handing it off to his mediocre running backs, Palmer will obviously be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald who gives him his best threat since Ochocinco.  Behind him are slot receiver Andre Roberts, tight end Rob “zero career TDs” Housler, and 2012 first-rounder Michael Floyd, who should have a big year under Palmer.

On the other side of the ball, things were blown up even more.  Their two starting safeties are gone so the team drafted honey badger Tyran Mathieu to help replace them.  He could easily be defensive rookie of the year if he continues to stay out of trouble. Big, captilized IF. The two starting ILBs are gone too but the Cardinals brass signed Karlos Dansby, John Abraham, and fourth-rounder Alex Okafor to compete with the leftovers from last year, including the talented Daryl Washington who may or may not be in jail the entire season.

At cornerback, they have their star player Patrick Peterson and not much else to speak of.  With him set to also line up at WR, RB, QB, and Coach this year I can already hear the ESPN debates about the injury he suffers as a decoy on offense… Fortunately, Arizona has Calais Campbell and Darnell Docket returning from injury on the D-Line and they should slow things down for the rest of the questionable secondary.

The Cardinals are going to have a lot of work to do this year with a new coaching staff and tons of new players. On top of that, their schedule is very hard for a below average team.  There are pretty much only four “easy” games and even those are hard to call.  After that there are a bunch of toss-ups (STLx2, DET, PHI) and more tough match-ups (SEAx2, SFx2, NO, ATL, HOU, IND). They seem to be moving in the right direction and I’d love to pick them as a surprise team this year, but with their schedule, the amount of turnover on the team, the shaky secondary, and the quality of teams in their division, I’ll save that for another team.  I see them finishing with a 6-10 record but with the line set pretty low at 5.5 wins I recommend betting the Over 5.5 Wins.