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Monday, November 26, 2012

Monday Morning Quarterback: Week 12 Wrap

Sometimes gambling feels like math.

                           

You spend ages working with numbers, following what you think are the rules, figuring out the variables, adding key factors, subtracting extraneous ones, dividing your time between a healthy life and a questionable compulsion, and hopefully multiplying your money. Then you get to the end of the problem - the end of the game - you check the answer and Bam, Sweet, Awesome, you got it right, you chose the correct team, you covered the spread, the hard work paid off, you're a math/gambling genius, and there's no better feeling in the world.

Other times, however, when flip to the back of the book you discover you were off by an x or a 2y, a half point here or a field goal there. You slump in your suddenly uncomfortable seat as hindsight shines a giant, glaring spotlight on the error of your ways. "Of course," you curse yourself out loud, as you realize you forgot to carry a one or remember that the Bills still suck. "I knew that," you mumble, realizing you just needed to convert units or have a crystal ball that would tell you that every running back in an historically reliable backfield would fumble.

The wonderful difference with gambling, however, is that unlike math you don't have to turn back to the same problem and start over, you don't have to think too long and hard about why a tenth ranked San Diego defense can't stop a 4th down and 29 or why reliable Matt Bryant missed a point-covering field goal at the end of the game, because there's a whole new set of fresh, exciting, potentially uplifting problems staring you in the face every day. Ahhhh, the joyous life of a gambler.

Good morning, TSZ readers. That was my all-inclusive way of saying, "Shit, shit, shit." A disastrous Sunday morning left Marco and I feeling like Thanksgiving was the only thing we were grateful for at all. From 3-0 ATS on Turkey Day to 7-8 ATS on the week, and clinging for dear life to our six week +.500 streak. What a dubious time for us to privatize our Friday Five and almost double our Followers, which brings me to this:

New TSZ Followers: Let's all give a warm welcome to Christina P. This hasn't been our best weekend, Christina, but the atmosphere of tepid optimism at TSZ never changes thanks to the everyone who participates during the good weeks and the tough one.

Coffee Thank You's: Generous donations were made to TSZ yesterday by Tony B. and Brian M., and this morning by David L. We thank you all sincerely for your contributions to building this project of ours. We feel a bit sheepish about this section today, because our incentive program for donations - our Friday Five - only went 2-3 ATS this week. It was our first sub five hundred Friday Five, but the timing couldn't have been worse.

Here's what Marco and I decided we'd like to do: We don't like being wrong, and we like it less at your expense. Any coffee donations sent in are intended to be used towards building a better future for The Spread Zone. That being said, however, we want happy, satisfied readers who are willing continue to participate in dialogue with us and in commentary with each other. So, if you were a coffee donor who feels disgruntled by the lack of value received in our Friday Five, just send us an e-mail saying, "Marco, Vinny, you suck," or "Not very good, guys. I need you to buy me a cup of coffee," and we'll press the old "Issue Refund" button and buy you a cup of Joe in return.

Seriously, please don't hesitate to do this. We will not post "Coffee Un-Thank You's," or feel slighted at all. You will still be forever on our e-mail list and receive free Friday Fives as long as we do them. We just want to get off on the right foot together. Friday Five for Frappacinos will continue and we will be back, but in the meantime we want TSZ to be a resentment-free zone. We want you to be happy and feel supported.

Some mornings, we feel like The Spread Zone has become a cozy and comforting support group for compulsive gamblers - like ourselves - who never, ever want to quit. To wake up after such a disheartening Sunday to a such a large cup of coffee donated by David L. - our first Twitter follower (@vinnyandmarco) - made us feel like winners again, and gave us the courage to come back to TSZ with our heads held high. We want you to have the same feelings. Thank you, David.

We'll have our Week 13 Picks ATS posted by Wednesday this week and we'll be sending a reminder e-mail about our Thursday Three fan picks. I think the small sample size and the New York Giants defense hurt our perfect season this past weekend, so let's get some more input this time around. We really believe that if we put our minds together we'll all be more successful.

Also, if you have a success story you'd like to share with the rest of The Spread Zone about your weekend or a particular game or a fun gambling story, shoot us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com. We need something to keep readers interested on Tuesdays.

Thanks again for all of your support and encouragement and coffee.

See you on flip side,

Vinny and Marco

PS We noticed Hameen posted a question re: some picks this weekend. We would love to get more dialogue in the comments section about questions like his and yours.


19 comments:

  1. I was waiting for you guys to e-mail me back but since you didn't i'll add some "funny betting facts". Lost $130 this weekend, hahaha! Funny eh? Should have won $350 if the replay official who took 9 minutes to review the spot on 4th and 29 in the San Diego game got it right. Was it me or did they still spot the ball a yard further than it should have been? Worst week I've seen you guys have by far! DON'T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN!!! HAHAHA, now that's funny! Just kidding boys, keep up the good work and the witty commentary because we all love to read what you have to say. Besides, I'll quote "1 week does not a guru make" and 1 bad week is had by all. I for 1 will continue to keep the faith and appreciate your overall record! (Could there have been a worse sample for the newbies?)

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    1. Hey Mysterio,

      Didn't see an e-mail in either account. Whoever ended up receiving it is probably feeling much better about themselves.

      As for the newbies - I know, worst first date ever. Maybe that should be the Tuesday Topic this week. Replay officials, water sprinklers, dead leg of Matt Bryant, the greased up balls in Cleveland, Brady Quinn pretending he was on this year's ND team - all of it totally F-ed with our S. Ahhh, the sweet regret of gambling.

      We can still pull .500 if the Panthers cover the game of the year tonight? Could there be a worse MNF game? It's during games like this when gambling was probably invented.

      Keep on keepin' on, Mysterio.

      Vinny and Marco

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  2. As a newbie, I will keep looking for guidance. I will say that your predictions fell in line with my other research so you were in good company this week. I look forward to this week and try to redeem myself.

    DrFlo

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    1. Thanks for the faith, DrFlo. Hope to hear your thoughts on our Thursday Three coming up soon. We'll post a reminder tomorrow and we'll have our picks out by Wednesday.

      Vinny and Marco

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  3. I was feeling good about my teaser and super teaser parlays. Had greenbay plus 8 and 13. Then Greenbay decided to just implode. How does that happen. Giants look like contenders against san fran and greenbay. Then chumps against pittsburgh and cinn. I just dont get it!

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    1. No kidding. Mercifully, I only had to listen to that game on the radio at work. Sounded ugly and I'm sure it looked worse. Last time Green Bay was trounced like that was apparently 2007 by the Saints. Weird week. We'll get 'em next time.

      Vinny and Marco

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  4. Early pick for next week....Saints +3.5 at Falcons. Falcons with an easy schedule 10-1. 7 wins by 7 or less, hmmm?

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    1. Also, for the Saints the playoff essentially begin next week. That's a solid pick.

      Vinny and Marco

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  5. Hey it's Jayden. Just wanted to say that everyone has their down turns and its not our fault Vegas did great this week overall. I sure a lot of people loss this week.
    What was with Matt Bryant missing two key field goals that could have easily pushed the game over -1. One on the twenty yard. Like cmon. Green Bay was just a horrible choice to pick. The elite QBs didn't even cover with the points...

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    1. Oh and Chad Henny is legit. I'm sure he will cover or win outright again.

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  6. you guys are doing pretty good, but it's just that you guys pick to much favorite. Not all favorite is always going to win against the spread. Sometimes when you look at the spread when it looks to good to be true you have to take the underdog. Vegas knows how to set their line up so that it makes you want to pick the team that looks best. Just like week 11 when Baltimore was going against steelers and the line was only 3.5 when Big Ben was out. Honestly I think that line should bump up to atleast 6.5 or 7 because they can't win without big ben. If the line was 7 i bet you atleast half the people would of took steelers because 7 is alot of points.

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    1. Just like the Detroit pick. Not much people will go with Detroit, but look what happen, Texans had a hard time.

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    2. Hey James,

      Thank you for the feedback. I hope you'll send your picks in for our Thursday Three.

      You're probably right with regards to our Friday Five - although this was our first bad week, but if you look at our picks from Week 12 we had a pretty even split of favorites and eight underdogs (9-7). We just didn't pick the right ones.

      And yes, Detroit was an awesome pick. Ahhh, sweet nostalgia.

      Thanks for writing,
      Vinny and Marco

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  7. Vinny and Marco,
    What a weekend! Crazy! Lets look back at the potential the weekend had. The Bronco's (Prater) misses two field goals, one of which hit the post, or they cover. He missed as many in that game as he did in the whole season so far. Then the San Deigo blunder--whether or not the mark was right (which it wasn't)--the whole defense should be benched. Absolutely stood around figuring someone else would tackle Rice.
    Great predictions on Chicago, washington, St. Louis and Detroit. Called the outcomes and described exactly what would happen. Keep up the good work.
    Go Broncos!

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    1. Thanks Todd. Let's not forget the consistent Matt Bryant missing twice. Look forward to your Thursday picks. Reminder e-mail coming soon.

      Vinny and Marco

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    2. Yeah that SD/BAL game was a CROCK! Seratore took 10 minutes to figure out the spot and still got it wrong by over half yard (or so it appeared)...the NFL is a funny thing (and by funny I mean...crooked??). No no I didn't say that! Oh well...back to work. Later

      BNB4B

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  8. Hey Guys,
    Good breaks and bad ones last week. I havn't even looked at week 13 yet this week. I'll tackle it tomorrow when I have a little more time. Hoping to get out my Thursday Three by the afternoon. I need a bounce-back week, big time (just like the Pack). Gotta make up some ground in five weeks. Until then...

    Beer & Brats for Breakfast

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  9. ...Ok, early lean on NO +4 ATL, JAX +6 BUF, & CAR -3 KC. More later...

    B&B4B

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    1. BNB4B! What's up buddy? We could all use a little bounce back week. Marco and I just got off the phone, locked in our picks, and will have the written work out by late afternoon. Like your early leanings - only because they match up with ours.

      Vinny and Marco

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