NFL Week 9 Picks ATS: Favs in the Morning Dog Day Afternoon

LAST WEEK: 9-5 ATS

SEASON TO DATE: 65-53 ATS

FRIDAY FIVE TO DATE: 8-3 ATS (4-2 last week including bonus pick)


Goddamn, stupid Pennsylvania teams. That's Pittsburgh and Philadelphia for the geographically challenged. If you're anything like Marco and me, you sometimes get fifteen minutes into a game and say, "What the hell was I thinking?" Really - the Eagles in disarray over the undefeated Falcons? Ben Rothlesberger and the 100 year-old defensive coordinator of the Steelers losing to a rookie? What were we thinking? Had we picked the right Pennsylvania teams, we'd be looking at an 11-3 week, a victory in our pool, and no residual smack talk from our Denver Bronco-loving commissioner. As it is, we'll take 9-5, especially on the heels of a three week 26-15 winning streak.

So, Happy Halloween everyone. Let's jump right into our picks for the week, beginning as always with our Thursday Night game - a special one that pits the most undervalued team in the NFL this week against the justifiably most undervalued team in the NFL this season. Our picks our in bold with HOME TEAMS in capitals.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-8.5) over Kansas City Chiefs: Like we said, Rivers and Co. are coming in underrated after a poor offensive showing against the Browns last week. It's true they could have played that game three more times and not hit the over, but don't let that fool you. Although the Chiefs play well as a dog of 8+ (6-1 ATS in their last 7), San Diego has been equally good at home against Kansas City, winning 7 of 8 SU. Besides, the Raiders beat the Chiefs by ten last week in Kansas City, and the Chargers are much better than the Raiders...and the Chiefs...combined. Chargers win big, giving favorites their first Thursday Night win of the season. 

Denver Broncos (-3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Broncos will quadruple cover AJ Green, and the Bengals offense will come to a screeching halt. At least that's what Marco and I would do if we were John Fox. Denver's offense is in mid-season form and it's only mid-season, which means big days for Peyton, Willis, and Demaryius- which ironically are the first names of our friend Jimmy the Weasel's children. If you want numbers with that burger, Denver is 12-2 SU in their last 14 against Cincy, and they've covered all three times as a favorite this year. 

                                      

                              Demaryius as a Replacement Ref

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Giving any Harbaugh two weeks to prepare for anything is like gobble, gobble, turkey. John, Jim, and the football gods know exactly what that means. It means the Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following a bye. And let me remind you, Senator Reid, "You are no Harbaugh." The way overvalued Browns get stomped by the perfectly-prepared Joe Flacco who took the Texans blowout personally and will make it 5 in a row ATS when visiting Cleveland. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-10.5) over Arizona Cardinals: The wheels are coming off in the desert, and we don't mean training wheels. Week by week, Arizona is starting to look like the worst team in the NFL. They started out strong, got banged up, and now they literally have no offensive line to stop Clay Matthews and the Packers defensive rush. They are a terrific team ATS as a dog of 8+ going 9-3 in their last 12, but Aaron Rogers laughs at ATS stats, especially after not covering against Jacksonville last week. This is a classic undervalued vs. undervalued. Take the home team and give up the big line. 

HOUSTON TEXANS (-10.5) over Buffalo Bills: Giving Houston two weeks to brainstorm all the different ways they are going to run all over the horrible Buffalo defense is like giving a Harvard graduate like Ryan Fitzpatrick a Wonderlic Test. It's just not fair. We are going to disappoint Jimmy the Weasel twice this week by taking another big favorite. The Texans are the most balanced team in the NFL, they are winning the Spread Bowl at 5-2 ATS/3-1 at home and they are 10-0 SU in their last 10 as a favorite of 8+. Numbers may never lie, but they sure can be manipulated.

                       

                                 Ludacris as Anthony Davis

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Marco and I are finally believers in the Dolphins. Their defense earned Marco 22 fantasy points last week, so he's all in. Miami may also be the most confident team in the league right now and they are spread-covering fools on the road at 3-1. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 visits to Indy, so they must love the turf. And by they we mean they. We really don't know any of their names or how they do it, but they do. Take them and give up the points.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: As long as the wide receiver Titus Young continues to perform well, the Lions offense is back. Teams will have to back off of Megatron and Detroit should be able to string a few games together and get back in the playoff hunt. Detroit has struggled historically against the Jags 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three, but Detroit has also struggled historically period. The teams probably haven't played since the Detroit became a respectable team two years ago. The Lions stop the run well, and be honest - what else do the Jags have going for them?

Chicago Bears (-3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS: Plain and simple, the Bears will dominate in all facets of the game. Colorful and complicated, the Bears are 15-2 SU in their last 17 as a favorite, their defense will probably outscore the Titans offense, and their team as a whole is starting to give us glimpses as to why Marco called them his pre-season Super Bowl Sleeper. 

                                 

    Cutler Blows...impressive Halloween smoke rings

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers: In what looked to be a game of the week during the pre-season, RG3 is facing his prototype CN1 in a battle of mediocrity. Cam Newton and RG3 will be compared every second of this game. The difference is Cam will self-destruct with the pressure and cool, calm, and collected RG3 will produce just enough offense to outscore Carolina by a touchdown in a game that promises to be a shootout. Buyer beware, however, although the Redskins are 5-0 SU recently against the Panthers, they are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 going into a bye. Go figure that one out. We still like the Fab Freshman against the Super-Sophomore Slump. 

Tampa Bay (+1.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS: We don't know how Tampa Bay is getting points in this game, and I'd even give up points in a wager that this game will make another appearance in our Friday Five. Look for Josh Freeman to continue his bounce back season against a weak Raiders defense. This game is going OVER and it's going to Tampa Bay. 

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: This is another classic under-valued line, with the Vikings getting way too many points after being embarrassed at home by the Bucs. It's difficult to imagine Seattle putting up enough points to beat any NFL team by more than five points. Seattle may be 11-2 ATS in their last 13 at home, but we'd venture to guess that a lot of those have been as an underdog. Take Minnesota and the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS: We believe this will come down to the best 4th quarter QB's in the business...and their reliable field goal kickers. Either way, if we take Pittsburgh, we win. Although Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog, the road team has won 4 of these teams last 5 meetings. Yes, that's dating back to 1991 - but numbers never, ever, ever lie. 

                                   

                               Best Polamalu costume 2012 

Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: This is Marco's blindspot special. He is comparable to Jerry Jones in his continued belief that the Cowboys can still win the Super Bowl. The Falcons finally lose as the Cowboys greatly improved secondary shuts down the Falcon Flight Attack. I know that's what we said last week against the Giants, but if they hadn't spotted them 23 points...Just take the Falcons, okay. We're taking the 6-2 ATS as a dog Cowboys. And that's final. 

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles: New Orleans is my blindspot special. The Eagles are dealing with the drama they've created at QB along with Andy Reid again being on the hot seat. Andy Reid may have an impressive ATS record coming off a loss after a bye after a home overtime loss to an NFC Central opponent, but we don't see that trend continuing this week. Seriously? No, not seriously. There may be stats like that out there, but we don't have theVIP pass. The Philadelphia Eagles are going down like a crack whore trying to get a fix, while the Saints still have some magic left in their dome. The Saints will go marching on...possibly to a .500 record by season's end - at home that is. Not cumulatively. That would be nuts. 

Happy Betting Everyone. Hope you get treats instead of tricks. 

Vinny and Marco

Braylon Edwards Still Plays Football???

Week 9 Picks ATS Coming Soon: After another successful week at 9-5 ATS we just have a few kinks to work out on the Week 9 line-up. We'll have them to you by tomorrow morning, but in the meantime, enjoy this real story ripped from this morning's headlines.

Sometimes factual stories in the real world are better than the ones Marco makes up during sleepless nights of child-rearing. This one is hot of the presses from this weekend's action in the real world.

Can't a Dude Get an MRI in Peace?

A hospital security guard — who is also a fantasy football owner chastised Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Braylon Edwards for not playing in last Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions because of a swollen knee.

Edwards was at the hospital Monday to get an MRI, but apparently the security guard was more concerned about Edwards screwing up his fantasy team.

Check out Edwards’ tweets: 

Fantasy football participants are "owners" and "managers" of teams that play in competitive leagues. They gain “fantasy points” based on the statistics of real NFL players like Edwards.

Notice that the operative word is “fantasy” football.

Obviously the hospital security guard has a problem separating fantasy from reality.

                                  

THE END

More than separating fantasy from reality, this security guard needs to separate 2012 from 2007. What is this guy in - a 32 team league with no running backs? Edwards should be flattered that he is still on anyone's fantasy team and offered to buy the kind manager/owner dinner for keeping the faith. 

Vinny and Marco

Friday Five: Week 8's Best Bets Hit the Road

First of all, how about those home teams on Thursday Night Football? That's 8-0 ATS this year, including the cover and upset we predicted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And yes, I did pick up Josh Freeman this week with both of my starting QBs on a bye. And yes, I am keeping him for the rest of the year - or at least next week against Oakland - as he just became the first Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback in their history to throw for three or more touchdowns in three consecutive games.

Keep in mind, I'm talking about the storied franchise that has had the likes of Brian Griese, Craig Erickson, Gary Huff, and Doug Williams behind center. Okay, they also had Steve Young when he was young, Vinny Testaverde when he was even younger, Brad Johnson when he was pretty good, and Steve Spurrier when he was about to start coaching. Whether or not Josh Freeman is the best quarterback they've ever seen in Tampa Bay, he was the best fantasy move owners made this week on a Wednesday morning in Northern California.

Now let's see what else we can get right last week with our second edition of The Spread Zone's Friday Five. Had this been the Wednesday Five, we surely would have put Tampa Bay on the list, but I'm sure you could tell that by our emphatic prediction.

LAST WEEK: 4-1 ATS

5. Washington Redskins (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

4. San Francisco Forty Niners (-6.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

3. New England Patriots (-6.5) over ST LOUIS RAMS

2. San Diego Chargers (-2.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

1. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5 or more) over Jacksonville Jaguars

That's it. Marco and I crunched the numbers, combined out lists, and came up with three road teams, a neutral win and cover, and the Green Bay Packers who are really finding their stride.

                                 

Bonus Pick of the Week (Dedicated to our Seattle Seahawks Insider Don Quinlan):

*DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Good luck everyone. And remember - luck favors the prepared. Do your homework.

Vinny and Marco

NFL Week 8 Picks ATS: Underdogs go 8-0 ATS on Thursdays

LAST WEEK: 8-5 ATS

SEASON TO DATE: 56-48 ATS (roughly 54%)

FRIDAY LOCKS: 4-1 ATS in our inaugural week


On the surface, our All Favorites Picks last week may have appeared lazy or thoughtless, but had it not been for the two Bay Area teams (which we love and are grateful they won) blowing their covers by mere half points, we'd be basking in the glow of a 10-3 ATS week. As it is, we'll take an 8-5 week all the way to the bank. I guess when you're gambling or running for presidency, 54% is all you need to keep on playing. Less than that, however, and you might need a cousin who's a pit boss or a brother who's a governor.

Even better than that was our very first Friday Five in which we went 4-1 ATS no thanks again to the Oakland Raiders. More important than our continued success at marginally picking the correct teams ATS, is our hope that we're giving fellow gamblers a resource with which they can cultivate their own illusory belief that there is a time-tested, proven system for winning. Remember: You can't, but we can. There may not be an "I" in team, but there is an "US" in ambiguous. You know what I mean?

If you do, then you should really stop gambling.

Now, let's move on to our picks. If you're like me, then you have both your fantasy quarterbacks on a bye week and you're looking at picking up Christian Ponder or Josh Freeman off the waivers to start tomorrow night. What better place to start our Week 8 Picks ATS than what has now become the traditional Thursday Night Football game:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Everyone talks about how hard it is to win in the Metrodome, but over the last 20 games, the Vikings are only 9-11 SU and 11-8-1 ATS. The Bucs, on the other hand, are spread covering fools at 4-2 ATS this year, including both of their losses. Look for Josh Freeman to build on his 420 yard performance last week against the Saints as Tampa Bay pulls out the cover and the upset. Can you tell who I picked up for my fantasy team? Until a favorite wins the Thursday night game, we're sticking with the dogs who have run their total up to 7-0 ATS.

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) over CHICAGO BEARS: The Carolina Panthers fired GM Marty Hurney this week after a 1-5 start, and franchise QB Cam Newton appeared frustrated and defeated in his post-game press conference on Sunday. The Bears, on the other hand, dominated the Detroit Lions Monday Night, but it was primarily their defense again that was so impressive. Chicago is 7-3 SU in their last 10 at home, but only 5-4-1 ATS. On paper, this game should be all Chicago, but we expect the Panthers to respond to front office changes with enthusiasm and energy on the field. Will they win? Probably not, but they'll lose by less than seven.


                                      
                           Pouty Smurf Says "Set Newton Free"


San Diego Chargers (-2.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: The Chargers score more (24.7 to 21.0) and give up fewer points (22.8 to 25.7) than the Browns. Cleveland's youthful core is gaining experience and improving each week and although they are 1-6 SU, they are 3-3-1 ATS, including 2-1 at home. San Diego, however, is a better team with veteran leaders. Plus, they're coming off a bye week. They should be embarrassed by their performance two Mondays ago when they gave up a 24-0 half time lead in a loss to the Denver Broncos and will be playing to make up a game for the rest of the year.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) over Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are 6-0 coming into this game, but Andy Reid is 13-0 coming off a bye week. The Eagles fired their defensive coordinator last week and will be out to prove they made the right decision. The Eagles are inconsistent, but have found ways to win this year regardless. Vick will minimize his mistakes this week and Philly will hand Atlanta its first loss of the season in the Battle of the Birds.

                         

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS: This game is essentially a pick 'em, so we're taking the Dolphins coming off the bye against the Jets coming off an impressive road loss to the New England Patriots last week. The Dolphins will be answering the Rust vs Rest question with an affirmative "Rest, thank you very much," will be answering questions about their offense again. The Jets are 12-6-2 ATS in their last 20 against Miami, but only 4-4-2 at home. We see Miami covering with a win in New York.

DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) over Seattle Seahawks: Remember when they used to call it the NFC Worst? Now the West hosts four of the top ten defenses in the NFL with only the St. Louis Rams giving up more than 20 points (20.1) per game. The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, have plummeted down the ranks, giviing up more than 100 YPG on the ground.This week, however, they are essentially playing to save their season.  Marshawn Lynch will get his Skittles on the ground, but Megatron will finally have a the big game we've been waiting for and Matthew Stafford fantasy owners will be sorry they benched him this week. Lions win big.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars: This line has moved a lot since it opened, but we don't really care as long as it's south of two touchdowns. MJD is out and Gabbart has a torn labrum, which essentially eliminates their rushing and passing games. Aaron Rogers, however, is finding his stride as the most dominant quarterback in the NFL. The weather, the defense, and the fans at Lambeau will leave the Jags feeling very homesick by the end of the half.

                                

New England Patriots (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams: That's right. No CAPS, because this game is taking place in Old England, which means there will either be a lot of Patriot fans or Patriot haters depending on how they feel about the American Revolution. We figure the farther history gets away from us, the more likely people across the pond will just love the word England no matter what comes before it. Tom Brady is considered a prince over their and will likely be knighted in a halftime ceremony after throwing four TDs in after building an insurmountable (to a Rams offense) lead. We don't have significant ATS stats for this one, we're just taking the less jet-lagged Pats coming off a shorter flight.

Washington Redskins (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Upset alert. RG3 almost Eli Manninged the New York Giants last week. Unfortunately, the real Slim Shady played for the G-Men and hit a game-winning TD to Victor Cruz before some of us had time to switch over and watch the end of what promised to be an exciting game. The Steelers, who still find ways to win, just don't look as foreboding as they have in the past. Grab Santana Moss off waivers, start RG3, and watch another victory in the evolution of one of the young studs in the NFL. Pittsburgh will see a five-game home winning streak come to an end (3-2 ATS) as Washington not only covers, but wins this game.

                             

TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Had Jake Locker been given the nod to start, we'd be taking the Colts. Matt Hasselbeck, however, is inspiring a potential quarterback controversy in Tennessee  and Chris Johnson is coming off his best game of the year. Even though Tennessee lost a lot of games when Peyton Manning was in town, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20 against Indy, they covered half of those games and were 6-4 ATS at home. The Colts will match up well with the Titans, but a late mistake by rookie QB Andrew Luck will seal the win and the cover for Tennessee.

Oakland Raiders (+1.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Does a bye week really help a bad team get better? We don't think so. The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Oakland, while the Raiders are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 on the road. The Raiders are also coming off an emotional win against Jacksonville last week, which should give them some momentum. In a game of field goals, we'll take Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski any day.

DALLAS COWBOYS (+1.5) over New York Giants: Nobody is giving Dallas a chance in this game. With Eli coming off another Eli being Eli performance and Dallas continuing its gradual climb towards mediocrity, the majority of bets are being placed on the Giants. We don't have stats or even very good reasons to take the 'Boys this week, except that their secondary gives up the third fewest yards in the NFL. Do we think Manning is going to throw for 187 (Dallas's defensive average)? No, but we think he'll be contained, frustrated, and ultimately lose in a letdown game on the road.

                                

DENVER BRONCOS (-5.5) over New Orleans Saints: Fresh off his seven-week bounty-related suspension, New Orleans Saints coach Joe Vitt is back with the team and ready to go. Unfortunately, he doesn't play defense. Neither do the Broncos in the first half of games, so this one is probably going way OVER if you play that kind of action. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees will have a shoot-out for the ages - until the third quarter when the Denver D steps up just enough for Denver to win by a touchdown.

San Francisco Forty Niners (-6.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: Ranked third and fourth in points allowed, this figures to be a field position chess game. We're surprised the Forty Niners are getting so many points on the road against a team that has played close games all year, but we appreciate the challenge. Our Arizona Cardinals Insider hates John Skelton, and last week's pick six against the Vikings showed us why. Bettors will be reticent to take the Niners after last week's incident against Seattle, but look for San Francisco to score and leave points on the board this week. Niners by ten.

So there you have it, fellow gamblers. A much more balanced week with 6 dogs, 8 favorites, and a 6-7 home-road split not including the road-road game in London.

Good luck out there, and check out our second Friday Five coming soon.

Vinny and Marco

Jim Harbaugh Linked to Gambling Ring

San Francisco, CA - In the most talked about fictional sports story since Phillip Rivers blamed God for the San Diego Chargers loss on Monday Night Football last week, rumors, conjecture, and flat out lies are now connecting San Francisco Forty Niners second-year head coach, Jim Harbaugh, to a local Bay Area gambling ring.

In the fourth quarter of Thursday Night's division showdown with the Seattle Seahawks, the Forty Niners led the game 13-6 with less than a minute left in the game. The line on the game favored San Francisco by 7.5 to 9 points, and although they were cruising to a victory it appeared as though bettors backing Seattle were going to be the ones celebrating.

On 4th-and-17, Seattle QB Russell Wilson completed a pass down the middle to Ben Obomanu from his own end zone. During the play, a chop-block was called on Seattle, which led to a safety because it occurred in the end zone. Suddenly the Forty Niners were up by 9 and looked as though they were going to be double winners. Shocking the fans, fantasy football owners, and about 75 million dollars worth of gamblers, Jim Harbaugh demanded the points be taken off the board so the Niners could take over on downs and run out the clock.

                              

In a practical, wild-shit sometimes happens in the NFL universe, Harbaugh's decision was considered a great coaching move. From the irrational, crazy, why-does-this-always-happen-to-me mind of a gambler, the decision led to death threats, boos from his own fans, and the birth of questions as to whether Harbaugh was the new Pete Rose of the NFL.

As the story unfolded, it became evident that Jim Harbaugh did in fact have a long-standing relationship with local bookie, Silvio The Cleaner Machado, an historical gambling legend who has come upon hard times in recent history. When asked directly about his ties to The Cleaner, Harbaugh acknowledge knowing him during the brief stint between his playing days and his coaching career.

When asked if he bet on the Seattle Seahawks Thursday night, Harbaugh scoffed, then offered a vague analogy about war, family, and how safety in that situation is a misnomer because his decision was the safest choice available. Asked if he has ever been a gambler, Harbaugh confessed that after he left the NFL he missed the game so much, gambling helped him stay connected. 

"As it turns out," Harbaugh bragged, "I was really, really good at it. I mean really good. I made more money gambling on the NFL than I ever made playing in it. Unfortunately for Mr. Machado, I was his best and his worst customer. By the time I landed the coaching job at the University of San Diego, I'd cleaned out The Cleaner." He paused for the chuckles that trickled through the press room. 

Harbaugh continued, "Silvio's owed me a ton of money by the end of our run together. He promised he would cover my bets, but his career was never the same after that. I never really needed the money, but if there's one thing the Harbaugh's hate it's a welch. And Welch's grape juice. And Welsh people. But mostly just bet welchers. You just don't do that. I wanted my money, and Machado knew it."

So, did I bet on the Seahawks game? Of course not. But I finally had the opportunity to help The Cleaner collect on all the local action he took on the Niners this week without costing us the game. It was a practical, smart, safe coaching decision on my part, and now Mr. Machado has almost enough money to pay me back. No harm. No foul. No safety. No problem. I did nothing wrong," he concluded triumphantly.

The stunned press room erupted in questions, but Harbaugh waved them off, "Sorry guys, the over under on this news conference is seven minutes, and The Cleaner still owes me a few dollars. Peace out papparazzi," Harbaugh added and strode out of the room. 

The End

Thanks for ruining our perfect week, asshole.

Vinny and Marco

NFL Week 7 Fraudibles: Vinny and Marco's Top Five Picks

For some time now, The Spread Zone gets countless (for people who can't count to two) requests to include our strongest picks of the week. Although it took a while for Marco and I to get past the superstitious ramifications of  teasing fate with words like "certainty" or "lock" or "guarantee" outside the context of sarcasm, we are finally relenting to satisfy our growing audience. It's supply and demand, baby! The economic principle makes capitalism work and dictatorships thrive. You can't fight when you don't have food. Am I right?

Fraudibles: Latin for Friday Audibles, is a word that comes from the days of the Roman Republic when the Gladiators - who traditionally entertained on the first day of a long weekend - would change their plans of attack and defense depending on the wild animal released into the arena.

                                 
                                              Nice Audible

Our emphasis at The Spread Zone will be primarily on the Friday part, but on rare occasions we may include  audibles on earlier picks based on more information - injury report, weather, or naive foolishness on our part for getting our picks out too early.

I know what you're thinking - this is one of those weeks. The Spread Zone must have realized the error of their ways when the Seattle Seahawks ruined their perfect week by becoming the seventh underdog in a row to cover the Thursday Night game. Not at all, my friends. Not at all. If it weren't for Jim Harbaugh messing up Alex Smith's rhythm by using Colin Kaepernick in the Red Zone, we'd be talking about a 20-6, spread-covering beat down and a 1-0 start. I guarantee the odds makers in Vegas were annoyed with Harbaugh, too.

That being said, we still like our chances with 8 favorites left at home and road teams like the Cowboys, Saints, Packers, and Steelers giving up just a few points on the road. Without changing a single pick, we present  you with our very first  Confidence Power Rankings (CPR):

5. Green Bay Packers -5.5 over ST. LOUIS RAMS

4. CHICAGO BEARS -5.5 over Detroit Lions

3. HOUSTON TEXANS -5.5 over Baltimore Ravens

2. OAKLAND RAIDERS -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars

1. Dallas Cowboys -2.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS

And yes, despite our 0-1 start last night, we have not wavered in our belief that this will be a week dominated by the favorites. Isn't it about time?

Remember it's better to have good luck than no luck at all.

Vinny and Marco

NFL Week 7 Picks ATS: 13 Teams Guaranteed to Win AND Cover

First of all, let's all take a moment to stop whatever we're doing, scroll down to the comments section, and wish Marco a Happy Birthday. What a week for my younger half - a first time father, a 30th time birthday boy, and most importantly 9-5 ATS last week. Thank you Peyton Manning comeback. Thank you Phillip Rivers mental exhaustion from having too many kids at home. And thank you brilliant brilliant teamwork from the people behind the people working so hard here at The Spread Zone.

Last Week: 9-5 ATS
Season to Date: 48-43 

                                   
                                   Underdog Last Week

This week we're giving you our picks and the process by which we came to them. Our mission at The Spread Zone is not only to provide you with crunched numbers, ATS stats, and sometimes blind guesses, but also to help you develop your own take-home skills and philosophies in the scientific world of random probability.

Last week Marco spent hours developing the O.C.D. gambling strategy. Not to be confused with the anxiety disorder common to gamblers, OCD (Offense + Coaching experience + Defense) uses regression analysis along with time travel to come up with a combined Power Number for each team. Using said team numbers retroactively (time machine) along with a series of complicated calculations - mostly just dividing by two and adding three to the home team - we would have gone 14-2 ATS in Week 1. Marco was ready to publish. Until we got to Week 2, where O.C.D. would have landed us at 6-10 ATS.

Nonetheless, an idea was born, which brings us to this week. Our strategy this week combines two ideas:

Step 1. Who Vegas expects us to choose and
Steap 2. The gambling Law of Balance

It dawned on us the other day that on a week-to-week basis NFL teams are either under-valued (UV), over-valued (OV), or just plain valued (V) depending on their performance the previous week. What Marco and I decided to do was to subjectively label each team coming into Week 7, then determine the winner ATS accordingly.

Let's take the Thursday Night game for example:

The Seattle Seahawks (OV): We determined they are over-valued after a win against New England at home.

The San Francisco Forty Niners (UV): Undervalued as a result of being crushed by the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

The Line: The Niners are favored by 7.5, and we felt the 0.5 hook was begging us to take Seattle. An under-valued team at home, however, against and over-valued division rival, and we're taking the Niners.

Side Note: If both teams in a match-up are OV, UV, or just plain V - like the Jags coming off a bye and the Raiders coming off an impressive loss - then we roll with the home team.

Sticking with Step 1, we made our picks accordingly. The four games with a line of 5-6 presented some problems, but at the end of the day we had 11 favorites and 2 underdogs. Initially we had some concerns about this lopsidedness, but then we took a closer look at some numbers.

Last Week: Underdogs went 12-2 ATS
Season to Date: Underdogs are 56-35 ATS

Does that mean it's all going to balance out this week? Absolutely not, but it stands to reason that the numbers, much like a flipped coin, will eventually balance out. If there's one thing Vegas hates, it's predictability. This brings us to Step 2.

Having chosen 11 favorites and 2 underdogs, we decided that if we truly believed this was going to be a favorite heavy week, it would be mathematically more prudent to choose all favorites. If we incorrectly choose the underdogs, we might end up 9-4 or 10-3. If we're correct that only two dogs cover and we pick all favorites, we end up 11-2, win our pool, and the respect of millions of readers. Well, tens of readers.

                                     
                                                  Underdog this week

Without further ado, here are our Picks ATS for Week 7 on the NFL schedule:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7.5 over Seattle Seahawks: The last time the Niners Gold Rush Defense looked bad, they came out the next week and shut out their opponent. Seattle is a confident group right now and as an underdog 14-3-1 in their last 18, but they're 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three visits to Candlestick. Look for San Francisco to stop Skittles and Russell Wilson. The Niners will dominate both sides of the ball and move into first place in the division.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -5.5 over Arizona Cardinals: Kolb is out. The horrible Arizona offensive line alone will lose this game and another quarterback, as the Minnesota pass rush will prove to be overwhelming for the regressing Cardinals. Arizona is 0-7 in Minneapolis since 1980, and although they've won 7 of 9 as an underdog, we don't see that happening on Sunday. 

Dallas Cowboys -2.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS: The Cowboys are terrible ATS on the road as favorites carrying a 3-10-1 record in their last 14 into Sunday's match-up with Carolina. Watching Dez Bryant take over the game at times last week against the Ravens, however, showed us the Cowboys might have actually figured out how to use its weapons. The Panthers defense is horrible. We see another breakout game for Dez. He deserves it - he's followed all the rules so far. Now if only he could follow all the right routes.

New Orleans Saints -2.5 over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: We still believe the Saints can beat mediocre teams, especially when given two weeks to prepare. This could be an emotionally charged win for New Orleans if Jonathan Vilma does return to the field. The Saints win games where the line is less than 3, going 10-1 ATS since 2001. Break out the champagne, the Saints will be 2-4 and on the rise.

                                    

Green Bay Packers -5.5 over ST. LOUIS RAMS: On paper, the Rams look like a great bet, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 and posting a 11-4 ATS record at home in their past 15 October home games. Unfortunately, this game is going to feel like November in a dome in St. Louis. Aaron Rodgers is all about padding his stats and running up the score when he can. If he can do this against a great Texans defense, he will easily duplicate it against the over-achieving Rams defense. Sorry Fisher, but Rodgers to Jordy Nelson will be in full effect. We laughed at the betting line on this one. Plus, the San Francisco Giants will have just knocked out the St. Louis Cardinals in 6 games, leaving the home crowd drunk and deflated. 

NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 over Washington Redskins: A battle of the trends in The Meadowlands. The Giants don't lose October games going 15-2 SU in their last 17. Washington's recent history, however, boasts records of 6-2 ATS within their division and 4-1 ATS as a road dog.The Skins defense was a lot better last year when they beat Eli both meetings. The Giants will control this game from the kickoff. Can you even name another Redskins player besides RG3? 

HOUSTON TEXANS -5.5 over Baltimore Ravens: The Texans are 7-2 ATS against the AFC North and 7-3 ATS lifetime heading into a bye week. The Ravens trademark defense has been unimpressive this year, and with CB Webb and LB Ray Lewis out, they will struggle big time against a well-balanced Texans offense. And when we say well-balanced, we mean Arian Foster rushes the ball, catches it out of the backfield, and sometimes even throws it to himself. Just like the Niners, Houston's D will be playing angry this week.

                                 

BUFFALO BILLS -3.5 over Tennessee Titans: The veteran Hasslebeck always gives the Titans hope to stay in games, but his defense is atrocious this year, which probably has something to do with their 0-5 ATS mark in their last 5 road games. The Bills Spiller/FJax split attack will run all over Tennessee, while Fitzpatrick to Stevie Johnson will be showcased, which means we will finally get to see Stevie do another TD celebration.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3.5 over Cleveland Browns: The Colts are a different, a much better team, at home. It's hard for us to pick against our ATS-awesome Browns but, with Trent Richardson banged up, now's the time. The numbers don't support this pick with Cleveland going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog, which probably just means their last 10, but isn't this the week the entire universe balances out all at once?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5 over New York Jets: Although New York is 9-3 in their last 12 as an underdog of 9 or more, Brady will pick apart the struggling Jets secondary. They will build up the score early and hand it over to Ridley to run for a big day. This one will be a blowout by halftime, as the Pats send a loud message to Rex Ryan and the rest of the AFC. That message is "This isn't Seattle bitches."

OAKLAND RAIDERS -4.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars: In the battle of crappy stats, the 2-10 SU in road games Jags face the 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 as favorites Raiders. The Raiders are healthy and played very well last week against the Falcons. They will excel on offense against an overly-rested Jaguars team. Raiders confidence at home will have them winning by at least a touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Steelers know how to beat the Bengals, going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against their division rival. Clutch Big Ben against the worst defense in football.? You have to think the Steelers will win by at least a touchdown. Mike Tomlinson is smart enough to triple cover AJ Green, as the Steelers pull off a mildly impressive road cover.

CHICAGO BEARS -5.5 over Detroit Lions: Chicago loves being favored, going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 in this role. Detroit hasn't looked very good on offense, while the Bears have looked remarkable on defense. That match-up alone spells a huge win for Chicago. Even with Jay Cutler at the helm, we are so confident in a big win for Da Bears, we don't feel the need to even watch this game. I'm sure a baseball playoff game will be on.

                                  

There it is - the first 13-0 All Favorites Week in NFL history. Good luck out there. And remember to wish Marco a Happy Birthday below. 

Vinny and Marco

Phillip Rivers Blames God for Monday Night Football Loss

San Diego, CA - In a Monday Night Football game for the ages, a capacity crowd at Qualcomm Stadium saw the Denver Broncos comeback from a 24-0 halftime deficit to upset the division leading San Diego Chargers 35-24.  

With the clock winding down in the fourth quarter and San Diego threatening to take the lead, veteran Chargers quarterback, Phillip Rivers pump faked, dodged the pass rush, stepped out of the pocket, and sent a perfect spiral right to Harris for a touchdown. Unfortunately, Harris plays for the Broncos and the touchdown went the other way, sealing the game for the Broncos. After the game, a humble, first-year Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning said, "It was a team effort. We needed all fifty-five guys tonight. Plus the fans who made the trip to San Diego. This was a classic example of human spirit."

In the post-game press conference, San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers - known equally for his passion for football and his passion for Christ - was unabashed about dishing out the blame for this opening game loss. "Human spirit?" Rivers mocked, "This had nothing to do with human spirit. This loss, the Broncos "victory" if you will, was one hundred percent God's vengeance against me, against my family."

When asked to elaborate by ESPN correspondent, Vinnessa Jr., Rivers responded, "Listen, for the past four years I've been thanking God for wins, division titles, playoff games, conference championships, and so on. God and Jesus have been good to me, and in return I've been making a good little army of Christian babies. I've definitely kept up my end of the deal."

Rivers paused, clearly getting emotional, "Now I've got four daughters and one son, my house is a freakin' mess, my wife Tiffany is on anti-depressants and downers, and I'm pretty sure she's sleeping with my best friend, Jake Peavy. And to be honest, I don't even care anymore. He can have the lot of them. Basically, I just got tired of playing by God's rules, tired of stepping on toy cars and Barbi dolls and re-injuring my fuckin' bum knee, tired of picking my wife up off the kitchen floor in a Valium-induced coma. I'd had it. So a few years ago after my last daughter was born, a daughter I owed God for the six-year, ninety-two million dollar contract extension I'd signed in  '09, I decided to defy God, defy my Christian faith, and get a March Madness vasectomy."

Silence in the press room.

"So, that's it. I've got nothing more to say. I thought I could get away with it, but clearly God wants his vengeance. He wants my balls in a vice and not the kind post-surgery provides. I'd like to say I'm sorry to Chargers fans around the world, but I'm not. I'm not sorry at all. You try dealing with five kids and a drugged up wife when your body hurts six months a year. I knew I should have stuck with baseball. God's way too busy to care about 162 game season. Asshole."

 Rivers with ESPN correspondent, Vinnessa Jr.

THE END

Incidentally, fellow gamblers, this is the kind of fiction Marco enjoys writing now that he's a father. Hope you enjoyed our 9-5 ATS week. New system with early picks coming soon. 

Peace out.

Vinny, Marco, and Vinnessa Jr.  - Pretty cute, right?

NFL Week 6 Picks ATS: Picks and Predictions for All the Games

Last Week: 6-8 ATS
This Week: 1-0 ATS
Season Total: 40-38 ATS
Number of CBSSports Experts We're Better Than: 6 out of 8
How That Feels: Not priceless, but good enough to keep on prognosticating

Phew - what a relief. Thank you over-achieving Tennessee Titans and aging, banged-up Pittsburgh Steelers for making me feel like a genius and allowing me to avoid a post-game rant from a sleep-deprived Marco who only advocated the pick because I asked him while he was napping. I know I violated Gambling Tip #1 - gambling alone - but extreme circumstances call for extreme measures. Perhaps my pick was motivated in part to get Marco's attention back onto the important things in life, but I also had a feeling that having Elisabeth Hasselbeck as a sister-in-law might act as an Inverse Curse of the Hot WAG for Titans QB Matt.

http://www.thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/08/curse-of-hot-wag.html

I know, it was a stretch, but isn't that what gambling is? Now let's stretch it out for the rest of the games on the Week 6 slate, see if we can't extend our lead over CBSSports and the other rookies at Yahoo and ESPN who don't even go ATS like the real men of the world. Here are our Week 6 Picks ATS, with home teams in CAPS and winners in bold.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: For the most part, the Cleveland Browns have been good to us when we've picked them and good to us when we haven't, going 3-2 ATS during their 0-5 SU start. This week just might be their first real chance to take home an SU/ATS Bifecta against division rival Cincinnati. The Bengals have been god awful ATS within the AFC North, going 0-5-2 in their last 7, while the Browns are 5-1-1 ATS within the division. Cincinnati has terrific weapons, but the Cleveland Browns strengths are their defense and their blissfully ignorant youth that doesn't seem to get down about losing. Take the Browns and the points.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs: The Buccaneers are coming off a bye, they've played teams close all year, and although they are 1-3 on the season, they are 3-1 ATS. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, but that was before Greg Don't-Take-A-Fucking-Knee Shiano showed up. The Chiefs meanwhile are coming off a slug fest with the Baltimore Ravens in which they lost their starting quarterback. If they went 1-4 with Matt Cassell, how well will they fare without him. Take the Bucs and give up the points.

St. Louis Rams (+3.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: This one comes down to Jeff Fisher again. The teams match up as statistically on defense, while the offenses are disparate in part due to the schedule they've played. Even though they've killed us this year we can't enthusiastically hop on the Tannehill/Bush Train to South Beach. Instead, we're sticking with the man who gave us our second of three Thursday Night victories in a row. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a dog. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Something has got to give and we think it will be the Dolphins O-line. This Rams defense is for real. They will keep this close if not win straight up.

                                           

Detroit Lions (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: This is a tough game to handicap. Any stats you find with regards to the Detroit Lions (i.e. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a dog, 0-7 in recent history on the road coming off a bye week, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Philly) are probably taken from the last decade when they were McMired in the basement of the NFL. This game feels a bit like the Titans and the Steelers. We don't have  great reasons to take the Lions, except that they are a talented group who has underachieved thus far. We see Stafford and Megatron having a break-out game, while Vick finally takes the hit that sidelines him for a couple of games.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-8.5) over Oakland Raiders: We would have taken the Falcons at -13.5. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is having a phenomenal year and has three targets in Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez who can all jump about fifteen feet into the air. The Raiders, on the other hand, have an aging quarterback in Carson Palmer who is trying in vain to reclaim his glory DAY in Cincinnati when he got his knee blown out against the Steelers in the first round of the 2006 playoffs. Take the Falcons, give up the points, and if you're just gambling with one other person, throw them a few extra to make it fair.

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS: Reggie Wayne is making us wonder whether he wasn't the real secret ingredient to Manning's success. This is another tough game because the Colts are probably over-valued for beating the Packers while the Jets are similarly inflated for covering against the Texans. Therefore, we are taking the points. We're not sure the Colts have enough emotional reserve to win another game as an underdog (6-2 ATS in their last 8 in that role), but we're pretty certain they'll cover against a Jets team who is without their offensive and defensive players. The Jets might win, but it won't be by more than a field goal.

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: It has been six or seven seasons now that we don't know what the Dallas Cowboys are made of. They are a roller coaster ride almost as expensive as their new stadium. The Ravens, on the other hand, are money at home where they always seem to win games (3-0) but struggle to cover the spread (1-2 ATS). The Cowboys are coming off a bye and will surely be prepared enough to lose this game by less than four. Take the points and expect an upset.

                           

Buffalo Bills (+4.5)  over ARIZONA CARDINALS: This pick was a late audible. We waffled from Bills to Cards and back. The Cardinals will be undervalued this week because of their disappointing showing in St. Louis against what is shaping up to be a legit defense. The Bills are coming off an embarrassing game in San Francisco to an even warmer West Coast venue in Phoenix. They're probably even more undervalued. We're sure Buffalo won't get blown out by 40, because although the Cardinals have won 8 in a row SU at home, going 6-2 ATS along the way, they play close games. Meanwhile, the Bills are a discouraging 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a dog. Numbers don't lie - except Thursday night in Tennessee, and about 50% of the rest of the games. We're rolling the dice on another close victory by Arizona - Bills cover the spread.

New England Patriots (-3.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: My mother-in-law is an animal communicator/pet psychic and she said this was going to be a great year for animal mascots. When I asked her to narrow that down from exactly half of the football teams she said, "Bird Teams." She is also a huge Seahawks fan because she likes their logo. She may be right about the Ravens and the Falcons, perhaps even the Cardinals or the Eagles. The Seahawks, however, are not going anywhere this year, and certainly not against the likes of Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, and a young defense that has gained confidence and skill since last year. Look for the Pats to start winning the games they should - BIG.

SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-5.5) over New York Giants: Doesn't Jim Harbaugh look like the kind of guy who holds a grudge? But he's also paternal as hell, giving timely hugs to Alex Smith last year that carried the young man into the second tier of NFL quarterbacks. In an effort to combine these strengths, look for Harbaugh to put Kyle Williams under center, in the back field, on the flanks, returning kick-offs, and even putting up a few field goals. This will be a redemption game for everyone in San Francisco for last year's NFC Championship loss.

Minnesota Vikings (2.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: With or without RG3, the Redskins will not be able to stop Adrian Peterson or Christian Ponder. What? That's right, we said Christian Ponder. He puts the King in Viking, while his girlfriend puts the Double D in "D-Damn."

                                    

We're not sure how the Curse of the WAG has not impacted the Vikings but we're pretty sure it continues to be off-set by the ghost of Mrs. Brad Childress. Taking the Vikings to roll to 5-1 SU/4-1 ATS.

                                 

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS: We keep betting on or against the Texans on the wrong week, but one of these days it's bound to pay off. Giving the Packers that many points feels insulting to a Super Bowl champion team coming off a 15-1 season. Marco and I both feel the Pack has not just cover but win this game to save their season. Their defense will step it up for this Prime Time match-up, while Aaron Rodgers will make Houston's defense look like Dallas's did when Wade Phillips was there.

Denver Broncos (+2.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: This was a toss-up game that we flipped and flopped on, finally concurring that if Drew Brees could throw all over the San Diego secondary, Peyton Manning should be able to do the same thing. We still don't think much of the Broncos as a team, but if Tebow could help them win several games they shouldn't have last year, Manning should be able to do the same thing this season. Feels like an instant classic with a two-minute drive sealing it for the Broncos as time expires.

Happy Betting.

Vinny and Marco

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans: Oh Shit It's Thursday

Well, the show must go on.

Marco Sr. is in Babyland with Mrs. Marco and Marco Jr., and although I'd like to be patient, football waits for no one. When I had my daughter Vinnessa Jr.a couple of years ago, even after 60 hours of labor and a home birth, I was gambling the very next day. When I said that to Marco, however, he got defensive saying, "Steelers-Titans isn't the freakin' 2010 Super Bowl, V-Dub. I just need some sleep. I just need some sleep. I just need some freakin..." and then I heard the phone drop to the floor.

That being said, in honor of Marco's first child, we will get our Thursday Night pick in right now, and then the rest of our Week 6 Picks ATS a little bit later this week. I know that will disappoint at least two of our three fans, but remember when we posted our picks on Saturday back in Week 2? I'm pretty sure the extra days of rest had something to do with our 11-5 ATS record. That week is what we now call the good old days.

Now let's talk some football. Marco and I are currently undefeated on Thursday nights in October of 2012 thanks to the Rams beat down of the Arizona Cardinals last week. Better than that, we're on a two game Thursday Night Football winning streak thanks to taking the underdogs, which incidentally have how gone 5-0 ATS this season in the early game. Can you tell where we're going with this?

                          

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
The Line: Steelers are favored by 5.5 points.

On paper there is absolutely no reason to take the Tennessee Titans. They've been losing games by an average of almost 20 points. On the road that average climbs to 25. Starting quarterback Jake Locker has been in and out of the starting line-up all season, and won't see playing time against the Steelers despite making progress this week. Chris Johnson has been mediocre all year with only 210 rushing yards through 5 games, while back-up QB Matt Hasselbeck has a 1:1 TD to INT ratio thus far in his two full starts in Locker's place.

The Steelers, on the other hand, are coming off a gutsy win at home against their in-state rivals the Philadelphia Eagles. They had Big Ben playing like Big Ben and Rashard Mendenhal rushing for 101 yards in his first game back. Their defense is getting healthy albeit a little older every week. Although it might be more like the Bronze Curtain, they still look pretty good.

But the Steelers lost to the Raiders. They lost to the Broncos. I know, I know, Peyton Manning is really good, but the Broncos really aren't. Yes, the Steelers beat the Jets and the Eagles, but those were home games. The Steelers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games, while Tennessee is 8-2 SU in their last ten against Pittsburgh. Sure the Titans have struggled as an underdog lately, going 1-5 ATS in their last six, but the same could have been said about the NY Giants going into their Thursday Night blowout against the Panthers three weeks ago.

Call it intuition, a Hail Mary, a prayer, or the knowledge that from time to time NFL quarterbacks are propelled back in time to a day when they once ruled the league from their third position on the third tier of talent. Look for Hasselbeck to have an outstanding game against the banged up Steelers secondary and Chris Johnson to finally have the break-out game we've been waiting for.

The Steelers might win, but it will finally be a close Thursday night game.

Pick: Titans and the points

Vinny and Marco (sort of)

Week 5 Recap: Remember the Colts?

Week 5: 6-8 ATS

Season Total: 39-38 ATS

Another sub-par week for The Spread Zone, along with two of our three solid gold locks falling apart in the fourth quarter left Marco and I briefly pondering what the differences are between Gamblenius (Gambling Genius) and a Gamblidiot (that would be you if you can't figure this one out). Like any good obsessive-compulsive addict, we quickly came to the rational conclusion that we would always be geniuses if not for the human flaws of all the idiots playing, coaching, and refereeing the games. 

This week, the three major differences that turned our week, our pool, and our three fans' picks on their heads were (in no particular order):

                            

1. The Gambler: "You gotta know when to fold," Mr. Griffin. It's only one of the most famous lines in one of the most famous gambling songs of all time. Had RG3 ever been exposed to country music or even just a Philadelphia Eagles game, he would know that taking your licks in the Big 32 isn't even close to the Big 12. His injury changed the end of that game. 

2. Slippery When Wet: Ahh, the 1975 Commodores were awesome weren't they? In a VH1 Behind the Music documentary, singer/songwriter Lionel Richie confessed that his lyrics

Love gets slippery when it's wet

Don't let your love slip away

Love gets slippery when it's wet

Takin' care of business.

were a cautionary tale intended for NFL running backs. When the song topped the Love Charts, he kept its origins a secret. I guess Willis McGahee isn't a Motown fan, otherwise he might have takin' care of business a little better in Foxborough. His TOs turned that game over to the favorites.

3. Yellow: Cold Play may as well have written the story Sunday Night in the Superdome. In the fourth quarter it was as if the refs were serenading Phillip Rivers and the rest of the Chargers with the words

Oh what a thing to have done
And it was all yellow

I think the Chargers were 2nd and 87 at one point. New Orleans hasn't stopped anyone this year, so I'm guessing somebody in pin stripes had money on the Saints. 

Okay, enough whining. Just wanted to let you all know how Marco and I recover from the down weeks. Just find an easy target, point, shoot, shake off the loss, pick up what's left of your money, and start again next week. 

Thursday's pick coming tonight. We're a little behind this week because Marco became a father this week. That's right, a nine pound three ounce Marco Jr. arrived yesterday.

Stay tuned.

Week 5 Picks ATS: Revenge of the Favorites

Week 4 Record ATS: 8-7

Season to Date ATS: 33-30

If you haven't read seen our Thursday Night Special, check it out because it's one of only three underdogs we're picking this week.

http://www.thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/10/nfl-week-5-picks-ats-arizona-cardinals.html

That's right, folks. This week is going to be like the third Star Wars movie, only with fewer little, furry people (sorry Pedro Gomez) and with Jerry Jones reviving his famous performance as the Emperor.

                           

With the Cowboys on the bye, he has mercifully left his coaching responsibilities to...oh dammit what are those things called...oh yeah, coaches.

Five weeks into the season and it has been a bumpy ride for gamblers. A few teams are separating themselves, but most still hover between mediocre and pretty good. This week Marco and I see teams beginning to separate themselves. The good ones are going to be better and the ones in question will either show they are for real or begin their slide towards 6-and-10-dom.

This week we have a disproportionate number of favorites covering the spread. Home teams in CAPS.

CINCINNATI BENGALS -4.5 over Miami Dolphins: Expect another big game from Brian Hartline and the rest of the receiving corps for Miami. Although the Bengals defense remains the worst in the league, Andy Dalton and AJ Green will put up big numbers for Vinny's fantasy team, and the Bengals will put an end to Miami's ridiculous over-achieving ATS record. This will be close game until a late pick six gives the Bengals the cover.

Baltimore Ravens -4.5 over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Against popular belief, the Chiefs still lose just as badly at home. In fact they are becoming the most open-minded losers the NFL has seen in a while, losing at almost any venue and on any surface. Matt Cassel is now playing for his job. He will force the ball down field, leading to a couple key turnovers. Baltimore will use their extra rest and game-planning time to hand the Chiefs their seventh loss in their last eight home games. 

Green Bay Packers -7.5 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Sad news in Indianapolis about Chuck Pagano. Nobody wants to root against the Colts this week. But let's face it - they're not Marshall. They're not Hoosiers. And the only movie called Remember the Colts won't be about a 4-12 rookie-driven rebuilding year. The Packers showed last week they will still demolish poor defenses. Even if the GB D doesn't have a good day, they will pressure Luck into poor decisions. Although the Packers recent history as a favorite 1-4 ATS isn't great, we believe they are playing the rest of this season on a Blue Brother's-like mission from God to reclaim the game that was taken from them. 

                                    

NEW YORK GIANTS -10.5 over Cleveland Browns: You know we love the Browns as a cover play most weeks, but all good things come to an end...at least for one week against the Giants. Don't give up on the boys from Cleveland, but the 462 mile drive from Ohio to NY will wear those rookies down. We're going to be honest here, the numbers don't support the Giants. Cleveland is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog, which loosely translates to "their last 6." The Giants on the other hand have gone 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite. Call this one a hunch.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons: If the Carolina game didn't wake them up, this one will. The Redskins are a difficult team to beat at home, and the District of Columbia is fired up about their improved product. The Falcons haven't traveled well the last couple years, especially to the NFC East where they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11. Be ready for another let down game for Matt Ryan and Co. Redskins cover.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles: Two weeks to prepare for the turnover-prone Eagles sounds terrific - especially for old teams. Tomlin will have his defensive guys back and ready to take advantage of Mike Vick. A lot of people are picking Eagles because they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road dog, but we are confident they are all wrong. Since 1988 - that's right I said 1988 - the Eagles are 1-3 ATS in Pittsburgh, and one of those losses came against the Pirates. Vick is bound to get hurt in this one. Vinny and Marco Special. Lock it up.

                       

Chicago Bears -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: If the Bears defense can grab two pick sixes against Romo, how many can they take away from  Gabbert? The correct answer is 6 and the line is +/- 2. Take the over and take the Bears. We love this betting line. Also, if you haven't used the Bears in your survivor pool- now's the time.

Seattle Seahawks +3.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS: Seattle is a completely different team on the road than at home with inverse 0-2/2-0 records. Carolina, however, cannot stop the run. Marshawn Lynch will get his against the struggling Carolina defense, but Cam will play a lot better on Sunday without the prime time spotlight, prompting spectators to say, "Man, that guy's super." This week will mark the beginning of the "Are the Seahawks for real?" line of questioning. The answer is, "Not on the road." This week, however, they will have just enough to cover the spread in a low scoring snooze fest.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -5.5 over Tennessee Titans: Just like their main weapon Chris Johnson, the whole Titans team is inconsistent. The Vikes defense is looking like it did a few years ago when they were dominant. Plus, how is Tennessee going to stop Percy Harvin and AD? They can't stop anyone, except maybe Chris Johnson if he played for a different team. Sure the Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, but this is the week we say, "Numbers be damned." It's not like math is science.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -9.5 over Buffalo Bills: San Francisco has won 20 consecutive games as a favorite of 8+ points. Last week, they shut out the Jets. Two weeks before that the Jets dominated the Bills. Therefore, the Niners will completely destroy the Bills. That's math. And math is science.

Denver Broncos +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Remember the Colts? Tom Brady does. But now they're full-grown horses and they have a defense. Peyton's still riding bareback, and he still wants nothing more than to show everyone he is better than Tom. Have we said how much we love Peyton? The Patriots are tough at home (21-4 SU), but the Broncos are tough against the Pats (17-6 SU). This is going to be a fun game with scores being traded into the final seconds. 

                                       

                          Never handsome. Always good.

San Diego Chargers +3.5 over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Reports are that Ryan Mathews will be given a bigger role this week. We don't see the Saints stopping him and the passing attack. Look for a big game from Antonio Gates as the Chargers continue their dominance 6-2 ATS as a road underdog. Remember when the Saints were money in the bank at home? What difference a year, multiple suspensions, the loss of a head coach, and an off-season quarterback hold out make.

Houston Texans -7.5 over NEW YORK JETS: Do we really need to justify this one? Sanchez hears the footsteps of Tebow and the Houston defense. He struggles again this week against a well-oiled Texans team. Lame Monday Night Football game here as we think it'll be a blowout. If you still want numbers, how about Houston being 13-3 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite and New York conversely at 1-7 ATS in their last 8 in their increasingly familiar role as a dog. To add insult to injury, the Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Yikes. 

So there you have it. That's 10 favorites to win or cover this week. Likely? No. But neither was an 11-5 underdog win in Week 3. The league is unpredictable, but the way we figure, it always comes back to about even when you're gambling. 

Good luck. But not Andrew Luck.

Vinny and Marco