NBA Playoff Pick-a-thon Day 17: Warriors and Bulls Set to Sweep Conference Semi-Final...

...ATS Championships.



POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 31-15 ATS 

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 67/98 or .68

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 16: 11-5 ATS    

Although the reigning MVP/NBA Champion/Gold Medal Winner/Classical Concert Violinist/Special Education Teacher/Devout Gandhian Pacifist/ and Rocket Scientist (did I forget anything Marco?) LeBron James and his Miami Heat are the clear cut favorites to defend their NBA title and the San Antonio Spurs - thanks to the injury gods in OKC - have become the front-runners out West to meet said Heat in an Old School-New School championship showdown, Marco and I are making the bold prediction that both the Chicago Bulls and the Golden State Warriors will do just enough to cover their Game 1 spreads and steal home court advantage in their mutual pursuit of second-shelf, ATS championship glory. 

                            

When you know deep down inside that you're probably not going to win an NBA title this year or any year that LeBron is paired up with two of the other top twenty NBA players, then you start scrambling for moral victories which include but are not limited to: winning the rebound battle, keeping the Heat under 50% shooting, making Mario Chalmers beat you, sleeping with LeBron's mom (no, Delonte it doesn't count when you're teammates), or covering a disrespectful double digit point spread like the one being thrown at the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 as if they were some second rate D League team from Milwaukee. 

Can I get a sheesh already? Sheesh.

Chicago Bulls (+11.5) over MIAMI HEAT: Today's games in Oklahoma City and New York showed us that if a road team is going to win or cover a game, it's probably going to happen in Game 1. Chicago has momentum coming into this series - and I mean that in the physical sense that their legs were probably so weak Saturday night they couldn't have stopped their forward progress if they wanted to. By Monday night, however, I have no doubt the Bulls will arrive in South Beach ready to play with the same awe-inspiring enthusiasm that helped them become just the 23rd road team in NBA history to win a Game 7.

               

You know you're in trouble when the Bleacher Report preview has a picture of these two squaring off. What the picture doesn't show, however, is that Miami does have a weakness - they finished dead last in rebounds this year while the Bulls finished eighth. If Boozer and Noah can control the boards like they did to close out the Nets, Chicago has a shot to cover any spread against any team.

Miami was a pedestrian 22-19 ATS at home this year and are 1-1 in the playoffs so far. As a favorite, which was all but seven games this year, they were just a smidgen over .500 at 40-35. Meanwhile, Chicago had a terrible home ATS but played well on the road during the regular season (22-17 ATS) plus winning twice in semi-hostile Brooklyn. Will there be rust in humid Miami? My sources - AKA the voice in my head - says, "You betchya." Take the points - at the very least the Bulls won't quit until the final buzzer.

Golden State Warriors (+8.5) over SAN ANTONIO SPURS: Yes, it's true that the Golden State Warriors haven't won a game in San Antonio since the Spice Girls were topping the pop charts with "Say You'll Be There" and David Beckham-Spice was only just learning how to bend things at all. Charles Barkley put it best when he heard the Warriors are now 0-29 in San Antonio since 1997 saying, "That sounds like a totally made up stat. That's trrrble." And it does. And it is.

                        

But you know what, I was 0-29 at picking up girls at bars until I met my wife and finally managed to steal the win or at least cover the spread and get her number so I could invite her to a fictional party I said I was throwing the next weekend. Sometimes you have to keep opening the door over and over and over again in hopes that one day your timing lands you face to face with opportunity. Mark Jackson, knowing that luck favors the prepared, will make sure his Warriors do just that.

If you need some numbers to support the pick - as if zero, two, and nine (0-29) weren't enough - then how about the fact that San Antonio was a sub .500 team ATS both at home (19-20-2) and on the road (20-21). Couple that with the fact that they had the second best record in the West and it tells me the Spurs play close games.

And finally, although Stephen Curry responded appropriately with the question, "Was he drunk?", Spurs coach San Antonio said watching Curry shoot is like Watching Michael Jordan. Sorry, Pop, flattery will get you nowhere. You might "win" the game, but you won't win the hearts of San Antonio gamblers. Not tonight.

Recklessly Devoted to You, to The Spread Zone, and to Gambling,

Vinny and Marco