NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 15: Game 7's Are Better Than Will Ferrell's Hair? Odds Say No Chance.

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 29-14 ATS (4-0 yesterday)

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 64/94 or .68

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 14: 9-5 ATS  

                         

Ahhh, Game 7's - the most thrilling part of American sports next to the excitement of March Madness's Won or Done, the Super Bowl, or a sweet-ass Jackie Moon stutter-step, reverse tomahawk lay-up. In some ways, Game 7's are even more exciting because there has been a two-week build up of tension, animosity, and contempt coupled with coaching adjustments, injuries, unexpected heroes, and the volley and serve of home court advantage. 

The Chicago Bulls-Brooklyn Nets series, pitting the 3rd ranked defense in the NBA (92.9 pts/gm) against the 17th ranked offense (96.9 pts/gm), has seen all of those things. Early on, the Bulls took home court away from the Nets in Game 2 with stifling team defense and timely offense. Back in Chicago, Game 4 ended up as an instant classic with the Bulls holding serve after mounting one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history and holding on to the victory three overtimes later. Now Brooklyn has returned the favor, regaining home court in Game 6 and returning to Brooklyn to host the game which ultimately decides who gets to take their talents to South Beach next week. 

                                

Game 7's have a decidedly uninteresting recent history in the NBA with very few exceptions. Dating back to the Los Angeles Lakers 2002 series finale win over the Sacramento Kings at Arco Arena (thank you Tim Donaghy), only 8 of 30 road teams have managed to win a Game 7, and more surprisingly only 6 of those 30 games have been decided by fewer than 7 points, which makes the current Chicago +6.5 line much less appealing than it did at first glance.

                       

More stats that make the Chicago pick unappealing is the fact that the Bulls are 0-6 on the road in Game 7's, they are 5-19 SU in their last 24 at Brooklyn (which must mean New Jersey, too - yikes), and Brooklyn is 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games.

To stats like those, Marco and I say, "Fuck it. Who gave them that one loss? That's right - Daaaaa Bulls." And if the Nets are 19-5 SU at home against the Bulls and the Bulls are 10-5 SU in their last 15 over all against the Nets, then basic math says recent history has been much kinder to the Bulls to the tune of 2-3 SU this past year including playoffs. Besides, the Bulls are 7-3 on Saturdays, 6-4 after playing the Nets, and 6-4 after a loss, while the Nets can't buy a win on Saturdays (3-7) AND, AND, AND...some other completely true but meaningless numbers I don't have the time or desire to look up right now. 

So who's going to win? Probably the Nets. But who's going to give everything they've got to prevent that from happening? Derrick Rose...

                                

's teammates Luol Deng (hopefully), Joakim Noah (definitely), and the rest of the Chicago infirmary.

                             

And so, without further ado, TSZ's Most AND Least Confident Pick of the Day Goes to:

Chicago Bulls (+6.5) over BROOKLYN NETS: Although looking at the starting line-ups, the injury reports, the team sickness spreading through the Bulls, and the fact that they're on the road in a hostile - albeit up-scaled in the last decade - environment, makes this look like the stupidest pick of all time, Marco and I just a tremendous amount of faith in the guy we call "The Man Upstairs." Jesus Christ no, not god, we're talking about the real man in charge.

                       

If he has to - and he just might - Tommy T., the old Golden Hurricane of New Britain High School, will dress down and show us all what crazy looks like.

                                

Peace out,

Vinny and Marco

BONUS HOCKEY COVERAGE 

                     

I almost forgot. Although Marco and I don't know shit about hockey, but we have avid readers/gamblers who do. These picks were contributed by Kyle in yesterday's comments section. Feel free to post yours, too. Confidence Rating in parentheses - most confident pick is listed first.

(3) BOSTON BRUINS over Toronto Maple Leafs

(2) LOS ANGELES KINGS over St. Louis Blues

(1) WASHINGTON CAPITALS over New York Rangers

Great job, Kyle, and guess what - now I will be following hockey with a compelling sense of interest that only a gambler understands.