Playoff Picks ATS Day 14: The Warriors Win the Pennant, the Warriors Win the Pennant

What a wild Game 6 in Oracle Arena last night. It was ugly early and almost disastrous late for the turnover-prone Warriors, but during the middle - it was golden. After falling behind the Denver Nuggets by double digits in the first half, Golden State managed to claw their way back into the game, inspired in part by a David Lee cameo who was previously expected to miss the rest of the playoffs with a torn hip flexor.

                            

Lee entered the game late in the first quarter, energized the crowd (as much as an insanely fired-up crowd can be energized), and played for all of a minute before sitting back down for the rest of the game. Emotionally, Lee gave the Warriors a huge lift, but as far as his ability to move and contribute, David Lee Roth would have been a more effective.

                           
Nonetheless, the Warriors climbed back into the game with solid defense and free throws. It wasn't until the third quarter when their perimeter shooting and interior passing heated up so quickly they had an 18 point point lead with a little over 8 minutes left. That's when the Denver Nuggets ratcheted up their defense, pressing, trapping, and almost using the frenetic Oracle crowd energy to their advantage. The lead all but disappeared, and in the waning moments the Nuggets had a chance to steal a victory in what would have been one of the most devastating playoff losses in recent history. Instead, they missed their final shots, couldn't control the rebound, Jarrett Jack made his free throws, and Kent Bazemore celebrated.

                                     

This is a terrific story a team Reggie Miller describes as "the kind of team you want to go and watch." With the exception of those final few minutes, he's absolutely right, and I'm absolutely converted. And although the Warriors haven't won in San Antonio since Marco was in high school, with enough points I'd bet good money we're still taking them in Game 1 next week.

Well, sadly our top confidence picks have taken a hit the past few days, but our overall stats are still comparable to many of the paid gambling sites which don't offer creative stories and downright fiction with their handicapping.

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 26-14 ATS 

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 54/84 or .64

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 13: 8-5 ATS 


Let's wrap the first of many fortnights of NBA playoffs with a slate of Game 6 Road Warriors and a home close out. Deron Williams reminded us in Chicago last night that better teams with better players eventually win in the best of seventeen series that is the first round of NBA playoff basketball. Anyone else miss the days of three or five game series? I think the Heat and the Spurs are travelling in Europe right now, waiting for word from the New World as to when to come home.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (-6.5) over Los Angeles Clippers: After the first two games, the Grizzlies managed to figure out the Clippers, make adjustments, and win convincingly. The odds makers understand that this game will probably be close late, but eventually the Clippers will have to play the foul game and Memphis will end up covering the spread by a point or two. This is one series where team and defense supersede talent. The interior presence of Gasol and Zac Randolph have proven too much for anyone on the Clippers. Sorry Mr. Crystal, this will not be your fairy tale season. Give up the points and book a date in OKC. Confidence Rating: 4

                        

Oklahoma City Thunder (+1) over HOUSTON ROCKETS: The Thunder are getting a point in Houston, which tells us there has been a lot of action on the Rockets. Gamblers and sports fans alike love an underdog story. Couple that with the Russell Westbrook injury, a bunch of close games, James Harden playing through strep throat, and you've got a March Madness Butler Bulldogs story in the making. Unfortunately for the Rockets, it's May, there will be no madness, and they will be sent home tonight be the team who has lost to the eventual NBA champion three years in a row. Durant is sick and tired of being second and now is his moment to show us that he doesn't deserve to be. Confidence Rating: 3

                         
                   "Like real estate, being #1 is all about location."

New York Knicks (-2.5) over BOSTON CELTICS: These are the lines where Marco and I think to ourselves, "It seems like losing at gambling is reserved for stupid people." Taking Boston and the points is too obvious, and like we've said before Vegas Hotels may be built on sand, but they ain't sand castles. When I was there in February, I'm pretty sure I peed in urinals that were worth more than my house. Give up the points, watch TG Garden bid farewell to an era. Enjoy your cereal in the off-season, Mr. Garnett. Confidence Rating: 2

                                  

Indiana Pacers (+2) over ATLANTA HAWKS: Marco and I made a pact to never take the Hawks. We keep believing that the Curse of Philips Arena will be broken. Do we know any of the names of players on either team? No - they haven't been showing this series on network television and that's because nobody believed it would last this long. These shenanigans end tonight. Take Indy, take the points, and take a trip to the Big Apple for the semi-finals. Confidence Rating: 1

                          

How can you not bet on that guy?

Have a great weekend, TSZers. See you all tomorrow.

Vinny and Marco