NBA Playoff Pick-a-thon Day 33: A Bear and a Rabbit are Pooping in the Woods...

Remember that joke from Eddie Murphy's Delirious? It was his gift to the audience - a joke they could remember. The bear to turns to the rabbit and says, "Hey do you ever trouble with shit sticking to your fur?" 
"No," the rabbit says incredulously, offended by the bear's vulgarity.
So the bear wipes his ass with the rabbit.

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 44-24 ATS 

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 84/128 or .66

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS: 18-9 ATS 

CONFERENCE FINALS: 1-1 ATS

MEMPHIS WINS! MEMPHIS WINS! MEMPHIS WINS!

Against the spread. And that's all we really care about here at TSZ. That was an exhausting game. Marco called at halftime to go over our Miami/Indiana pick and the conversation went something like this:

Me: I freakin' hate this. Why do I get so invested in one game? Why don't the Spurs ever miss? How did Memphis even get to the Conference Finals? Do they just expect to win games 1-0?

It wasn't so much a conversation as it was Marco listening to me vent, then trying to distract me by offering to trade me Jacoby Ellsbury for Matt Moore in fantasy baseball. It was a clever tactic on his part, and it took my mind off the Memphis-San Antonio game for several minutes while I recapped all the trades we'd made in the past and how they'd earned me the nickname "Vietnam" to the rest of the league because everyone he sends my way ends up as a disabled veteran. Don't worry, it's never too soon for war veteran jokes. Besides, I sent money to Barry Zito so I am karmically covered. 

                

I'm also karmically covered to say that similarly to his organization, Barry Zito's personal motto is: It's about living up to the standards of a 118 million dollar seven-year contract half way through the sixth year. Fortunately for the troops, funding for this organization does not rely on him striking anyone out. Unfortunately for us Giants fans, Zito found Jesus just as his big contract with us is expiring. Relax, I'm talking about Jesus Boras, Scott's half brother who is taking on all of his second tier clients.

                                

But I digress...

After I got off the phone with Marco, the second half of that game happened. Not all at once and not right away, but Memphis managed to wear down San Antonio's shooting legs whilst whittling down their 20 point second half lead to just 13 with six minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Grizzly defense then proceeded to completely shut down the Spurs, finishing the quarter on a 15-2 run to send the game into overtime. Zach Randolph, completely shut down in the first game and a half of the series, suddenly came to life on the boards and in the post, finishing the game with 15 points and 18 rebounds. 

                        

Sadly, the Grizzlies did not have enough left in the tank for the final five minutes. While Tony Parker's 15 points and playoff career high 18 assists carried the Spurs for most of the game, it was the 1999 Finals MVP Tim Duncan who took them home in the overtime, scoring six of San Antonio's eight points and making a pivotal block on the defensive end. 

                         

All in all, the game was exhausting. Had I not quit smoking, drinking, and sniffing glue years ago, the chest pains I was feeling through most of the second half might have been cause for concern. Not until the final seconds elapsed as Memphis missed, grabbed the offensive board, and missed again could I finally breath easy. Does the thrill of winning balance out the certain acceleration towards death caused by the in-game anxiety? And if not, is gambling really worth it?

Answer Key: Yes and Of Course. And now that I'm fully recovered, let's take our talents to South Beach and jump on tonight's roller coaster. Here's what Marco and I decided. 

MIAMI HEAT (-7.5) over Indiana Pacers: As we learned in Game 1 of the Memphis-San Antonio series, there is no substitute for experience. San Antonio's veterans had been there while it took Memphis almost two games to shake the butterflies. In the East, the Miami Heat is making its third trip to the Conference Finals in three years while the Indiana Pacers haven't advanced this far since Reggie Miller was taunting Spike Lee with three pointers and choke signs. We have no doubt Indiana can compete with Miami in Game 2, but much like the Grizzlies, they'll need Game 1 to get their bearings. In this scenario, Miami is the bear and Indiana the rabbit.

                          

ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy said the Pacers have no chance to beat the Heat in a seven-game series citing the disparity in their regular season records. He's probably right, but with points they'll be given and the rebounding advantage they'll have throughout the series, they will certainly be able to cover a couple games. Just not this one. 

The Pacers are 1-6 SU in their last seven trips to Miami, covering only three of those games. Miami, on the other hand, is 18-2 SU in their last 20 at home but only 9-11 ATS. A closer look at the surprising latter stat shows that 9 of those ATS losses were very large, double-digit spreads.  As much as it pains me to pick them, I know I'll feel better about them winning than losing twice with the Pacers. 

Remember, if you're not winning you're not reading The Spread Zone.

Vinny and Marco