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Sunday, May 5, 2013

NBA Playoff Pick-a-thon Day 16: Let the Wild Rumpus Start

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 30-14 ATS (1-0 in Game 7's)

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 65/95 or .68

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 15: 10-5 ATS   

            

For those of you who aren't reading the same book thirty-five hundred times a day to your three year-old daughter, the post title is a direct quote from the Maurice Sendak classic Where the Wild Things Are. It's the tale of a boy whose feral behavior lands him in his room without supper and his imagination then takes him to a land where he gets to experience first hand what the world would be like if everyone everywhere were wild all the time. I'm not positive, but I'm pretty sure it was a metaphor for the Chicago Bulls defense. 

                               

With Joakim Noah, of course, as Max.

                                 
                     "Get your hand off my rumpus, Mr. Noah." 

And in real life, Max doesn't go back to his room - he goes to Miami.

What a game. What a gutsy all-around effort by a severely depleted team on the brink of letting a 3-1 series lead slip through their fingers. This, in the wake of them being a rare one seed to lose to an eight seed last year when Derrick Rose's knee injury knocked him out of the series. Now the Chicago Bulls can breathe a sigh of relief, retire their barf bags, check Luol Deng out of the hospital, get Kirk Heinrich a pair of crutches, and limp their way down to South Beach to cover the Game 1 line as we expect them to. 

The conference semi-finals kick off today in Oklahoma City and New York. As Marco and I have done up to this point, we like to look at the arc of a series, imagine an outcome, and then discuss how the teams will wind up at point B from point A. With both OKC-Memphis and New York-Indiana, we see the series going at least six games. What that means is the home team will probably win one if not both of the first two games. We see a split in both cases here, which is why we're taking:

Memphis Grizzlies (+3) over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER: The Houston Rockets, a collection of rookies and other youngsters with little to no history together, pushed the Thunder to a Game 6 and could have easily won the series had a shot or two gone their way in Games 2 or 3. Memphis has better athletes, comparable shooters, and much, much better interior defense. Of course KD will get his points and Reggie Jackson will continue to build confidence in his new role as starter, but Perkins and Ibaka will be challenged inside by Zack Randolph and Marc Gasol, which means Mike Conley Jr. will have his way on the perimeter. Remember, the Grizzlies road ATS record (24-16-1) is comparable to OKC's home record (26-14-1) and that was during the regular season when they had Russell Westbrook. Memphis also took two out of three from OKC during the regular season. Look for them to make it three of four as they steal Game 1 and put the mettle of the Oklahoma City Thunder to the test. Confidence Rating: 2 (more confident)

                      
                              "Move over Z-Bo. I got this one."

NEW YORK KNICKS (-5.5) over Indiana Pacers: This series, this game is a Monkey Off Their Backs battle. For the New York Knicks, they just won a playoff series for the first time in thirteen years. For Indiana, they just won in Atlanta for the first time in thirteen tries. Sorry Pacers, your monkey is just a little bit smaller. And by a little bit smaller, I'm talking rhesus versus gorilla.

     

Advantage Knicks. New York will also be back in the warm, friendly, Spike Lee orange confines of Madison Square Garden where they were 31-10 SU and 25-16 ATS. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers as an underdog this season were an unimpressive 12-16. Game 1 at the next level brings with it all the adrenaline and excitement of the opening round multiplied by infinity. If the Pacers come out shaky at all, this game will be out of reach by halftime.

So there you have it, folks. Another mystery solved in Busytown. This is Gold Bug signing off.

Sorry, I watch cartoons almost as much as I read books.

Vinny and Marco

BONUS COVERAGE FROM KYLE'S CANADIAN CORNER

After going 2-1 with his hockey picks yesterday, Kyle has gone above and beyond the call of duty, bringing you everything from NHL picks to prop bets and even some major league baseball. Enjoy a glimpse into the future of The Spread Zone.


Hey guys,

As you saw my Saturday picks went 2-1, and although I dislike not having perfection, I will deal with it for now. For Sunday I have a mixture of NHL/MLB and I'll try to make this concise and easy to read.

NHL:  The real value tomorrow is in some props, the only straight game I like is Pittsburgh over New York, New york got a lucky win on Friday with multiple fluke garbage goals. Pittsburgh won't even allow them to breathe from now and will go on a 3 win tear. I'm taking them the rest of the series, as they are a favorite to win the cup for good reason. PS: Pit v NY over 5.5 or Pit over 3, or both.

                              

In addition, Chicago over Minnesota is worth looking at because they are outclassed on every level. Minnesota should lose the series 4-1 and the first home game tomorrow might be where they make a stand. This is a low confidence pick. 


Now... The secrets of success total saves, I'm 100% on these so far. 
Montreal v Ottawa: Ottawa's goalie is saving 39.5 saves per game, and the o/u line will be between 28-31, the over is the play.

                        

Chicago v Minnesota: This series is a mismatch on the level of Tom Brady v Ryan Leaf in QBR. The only reason every game hasn't been a 5-6 goal blowout is Minnesota's backup goaltender (who has                   multiple sclerosis and is a true hero for what he's accomplished with the disease) is playing like a brick wall carrying a team of bricks - and not the ones who love lamp. Anyways he's averaging 39 saves per game here and the line hasn't been released but if it's around 30-34, over is the play.

                                   

MLB: 

MLB is all about the pitchers, and I'm not talking about alternative lifestyle roles in the boudoir for residents of San Fransisco (Shazam easy joke). I'm on a schedule tonight so I'm going to have to rush this. PPS: In baseball while looking at the starting Pitcher's ERA don't forget they normally only pitch 5-7 innings of the game and the relievers can easily blow it.

That being said, however, these are these 5 pitchers have a huge edge tomorrow and should earn wins for their teams.

COL:   Chacin (3-0, 1.46 ERA)
DET:   Verlander (3-2, 1.83 ERA)
CIN:   Latos (2-0, 1.83 ERA)
STL:   Garcia (3-1, 2.50 ERA)
CLE:   Kluber (2-0, 2.25 ERA)

Other baseball bets to consider include but are not limited to:

Min v Cle: Cleveland to win, and possibly the over 9.
MIN:   Pelfrey (2-3, 7.66 ERA)
CLE:   Kluber (2-0, 2.25 ERA)

NYM v ATL: Two mediocre pitchers usually means smack dat over (line not released yet)
NYM:   Niese (2-2, 3.31 ERA)
ATL:   Hudson (3-1, 3.86 ERA)

NYY v OAK:  Not only do the numbers not lie they are both hot with their bats right now, over 8.5.
OAK:   Straily (1-0, 6.35 ERA)
NYY:   Pettitte (3-2, 3.86 ERA)

Wash v Pit: Mediocre Mexican stand-off = over 7. (Didn't even notice the Pitcher's last names till now and caught the racism, whatever I'm in an inter-racial relationship, my non-white girlfriend gives me carte blanche).
WSH:   Gonzalez (2-2, 5.34 ERA)
PIT:   Rodriguez (2-1, 3.91 ERA)

Sea v Tor: Overachieving Seattle v Underachieving what was considered dream team coming into the season, expect lots of runs here, over 8.5.
SEA:   Saunders (2-3, 5.25 ERA)
TOR:   Morrow (0-2, 5.29 ERA)
Lad v SF: Two high octane teams that love to hit dingers, yesterday's game was 10-9, Sunday's has San Fran's worst pitcher, Over 7!
LAD:   Ryu (3-1, 3.35 ERA)
SF:   Cain (0-2, 6.49 ERA)

That's all for now from your friendly neighbor to the north. Good luck out there fellow gamblers. Tune in for another episode of Kyle's Corner soon.

And remember, when it comes to major league baseball - the steroid era was a complete myth.




4 comments:

  1. Oh no! My steroid pictures didn't properly load! Oh my punchline is ruined.

    As I type Pittsburgh game is only 10 minutes in and already 4 goals, the over and Pitts >3 looks fantastic.

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    Replies
    1. Update time from me (on foreign computer but it's me)

      NHL:
      Pittsburgh v NyI: I went 3-0, Over 5.5 hit, over 3 goals hit, and Pittsburgh won the game.

      MLB:
      ATL v NYM has already gone over.
      SEA v TOR has already gone over.
      NYY v OAK has already gone over.
      WASH v PIT has 5 of the 7 so far with 3 innings to go.
      MIN v CLE is only one looking like a loser so far.



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  2. End day Kyle picks totals:
    NHL: 4-2
    MLB: 7-3-1
    Overall: 11-5-1

    Not too shabby.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think we might have an NHL/MLB guru in the making.

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