POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 33-15 ATS (2-0 Yesterday)
CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 70/101 or .69
TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 17: 12-5 ATS
What a night. If you didn't like basketball when things tipped off in Miami this afternoon, I'll bet you were a loyal albeit completely stressed out fan by the end of the second overtime in San Antonio.
In the Eastern Conference, all the talk this week was about LeBron James receiving his (almost) unanimous MVP award, the invincible air of the Miami Heat, their offense, their defense, their prodigal boy wonder coach, and the impossible challenge ahead for the injury depleted Chicago Bulls. What wasn't talked about nearly enough was the amazing intangibles players like Joakim Noah and Jimmy Butler bring to the table, the Bulls "we have more than enough to win" attitude and their genuine basketball ability to control the boards against the Miami Heat. I'm sure a lot of analysts will be saying the Miami was more rust than rest last night because of missed open shots, but wasn't it the heart, energy, and tenacity of the Chicago defense that gave them tired legs to shoot with?
And once again, Chicago's Little Big Man was the hero. Scrambling for a loose ball against the much larger LeBron James, Robinson ended up with a split lip, received six stitches at halftime, and then scored sixteen points in the second half. The only other person I've ever seen do that was Marco - on the PS2 NBA Shootout. These aren't your daddy's Bulls anymore, dear readers, which can only be a disappointment to spoiled fans from the '90's, but at least these aren't your older brother's Bulls either. In fact, they're growing up before our eyes.
Meanwhile, in the Western Conference another kid by the name of Stephen Curry was hanging 40 points and 9 assists on the second seeded San Antonio Spurs, but the Golden State Warriors youthful inexperience choked away a fourteen point lead with four minutes to go in regulation, setting up a Manu Ginobli three point dagger to win the game 129-127 two overtimes later. Make that 0-30 since 1997 Golden State, but also take some pride in going up 1-0 in the ATS Conference Semi-Finals. If you have relatives who are fans and gamblers, they still love you right now. As for the rest of the fans, they'll need to not sleep on it tonight and start anew tomorrow as they have so many times before.
I hate you, too, Manu. I hate you, too.
Some people say that winning the lottery wouldn't change them, that they would still have the same friends and keep their shitty ass job at the post office or McDonald's. I have the same philosophy about becoming a Warriors fan. I'm keeping my faith and optimism in the universe. Listening to Marco when Golden State was up by 18 in the third quarter cemented this decision. "It's too bad there's a salary cap," he began, "They won't be able to keep this team together longer than four or five years."
Dude, your historically bad franchise is up by almost twenty on the Western Conference favorite and your already mired in potential future misery a half decade from now? "That will never be me," I swore to him and hung up the phone. When I called back at the end of the second overtime I had gotten rid of all my old friends, quit my job at the gas station, and taken on the somber tone of a defeated man.
"What the F, dude?" I said to Marco
"I know. I told you. I don't think I can handle watching sports anymore."
"Me neither...starting now."
Uncomfortable silence.
"So, do you still like the Knicks tomorrow?"
Yes we do. And I'd say that again because I've been repeating things for emphasis a lot lately (see Manu picture above), but I'm just not confident enough to be emphatic about the Knicks. Nonetheless, here are our Day 18 picks ATS. Let the good times continue to roll.
Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5) over OKLAHOMA CITY: Once again, dear readers, this is where Marco and I part ways with basketball knowledge and return to the psychology of the seven game series. The Grizzlies let Game 1 slip through their fingers on Sunday, but unlike Marco with his Warriors, they still believe in themselves and understand that a bounce here, a turnover there, a more earthly performance by superstar Kevin Durant, and they return to Memphis with home court advantage.
Both teams had only 13 assists in Game 1, which will like continue for KD and OKC, but if Marc Gasol and Zack Randolph can continue to dominate inside and the Grizzlies share the ball a little more, they'll create wide open looks on the perimeter. We believe Memphis will win this series in 6 games, which makes tonight an imperative win. Take the points and watch Memphis hold on for the win this time. Confidence Rating: 2 (more confident)
NEW YORK KNICKS (-6)) over Indiana Pacers: Although I can't be emphatic, much like the series above, we see the Knicks stretching this one out before ultimately losing on the road in Game 6. The Knicks put the mellow in Carmelo Sunday, appearing as if they were trudging through a second summer practice for a high school football team somewhere in the mid-west. They were slow to the ball, their passes were telegraphed, they were looking incredulously at the refs on every other play, and they just didn't look present.
That won't happen again. New York won 54 games during the regular season and closed strong to earn the second seed and home court advantage. Mike Woodson will have a plan to adjust to the younger, more athletic Pacers and create shots for JR Smith and company. And hopefully, Carmelo Anthony will play distributor when he draws double teams from the Indiana defense or if his shoulder isn't feeling well enough to shoot the Knicks out of trouble. Knicks by ten. Confidence Rating: 1
I'll close with this quote for any Warriors fans who are feeling like Marco this morning:
"I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed." - Michael Jordan
Keep the faith, my friends. Wait for it. Keep the faith.
Vinny and Marco
BONUS COVERAGE FROM KYLE'S CORNER IN CANADA
Kyle's on a role up north, too, with his totals currently sitting pretty at:
NHL Picks: 5-2
MLB Picks: 11-5-1
Looks like TSZ is expanding as we speak. Here are Kyle's quick hits for today.
NHL Picks
Pittsburgh v NYI; Pitts to win, over 5.5, Pitts over 3 goals, and if you want to gamble first period over 1.5.
Chicago v Minnesota; Chicago to win and >30 shots on goal.
These are the two power house teams, looking to end these series 4-1 (both already lost 1 due to carelessness) They are better than their opponents in every single way and should close out these series - even with Crosby's fragile jaw and special helmet.
MLB Picks
For baseball there are too many games to do a write-up on, but suffice to say I have a system I use that has proven to be effective. Don't forget there are 15 games played per day, give or take, so while it seems like I'm picking everything, I am not.
Hot pitcher ride ML's: (Pick the team to the left of the pitcher to win)
NYM: Harvey (4-0, 1.56 ERA)
STL: Lynn (5-0, 2.75 ERA)
TEX: Grimm (2-1, 2.28 ERA)
NYY: Kuroda (4-1, 2.25 ERA)
My specialty, however, is the OVERS! My OVERS record right now is legendary. I don't see how I can keep it up but here goes:
*The following matchups are all over total run picks*
MIA: Sanabia (2-4, 4.67 ERA) *v* SD: Stults (2-2, 5.08 ERA)
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