CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 83/127 or .66
TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS: 18-9 ATS
CONFERENCE FINALS: 0-1 ATS
Before we get to this evening's action, I would be remiss if I did not pause and give a warm, TSZ welcome to our newest follower - Leremy Jin.
We love the moniker because it means you're not only witty but quick to capitalize on opportunities. Much like video game avatars to the nerdy gamers of the world, your username is now worth millions of dollars to the Linsane basketball fans in China, Houston, New York, and Massachusetts. Well done, my friend, and welcome to The Spread Zone. We hope you find comfort, solace, and a direct line to...
Sadly, we did not start the Conference Finals with the same flurry we entered the last round, but have faith TSZers because "Karma is as Karma Does," or "Life is Like a Box of Karma," or "Does a Bear Shit in the Texas Woods?" One of those three famous (starting now) quotes has everything to do with Game 2's results. Let's get right to the action - which late in the NBA playoffs is unfortunately singular. Does Texas even have woods?
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (+5.5) over SAN ANTONIO SPURS: During the pre-season, Marco and his colleagues at work create a pool in which they pick teams to go to the NBA Finals. Back in early October, Marco picked the Memphis to meet Miami for the 2013 title. Perhaps it was because he was snacking on a delicious pack of M & M's, but nonetheless he is well on his way to nailing it. With the exception of the annoying Spur-backing, Skip Bayless-loving history and economics (snooze) teacher, the rest of his staff has been calling him NostraMarcus. Unfortunately for him, these are the images that come up when you Google his new nickname.
Irregardless, we are going to back Memphis in every game between now and the end of the NBA Finals. Who do we like in the Miami-Indiana series opener tomorrow? Memphis, of course. Obviously we will temper our enthusiasm with some sanity, research, and common sense - all of which apply to tonight's game.
A lot of people will be backing the Spurs after they manhandled the Grizzlies Sunday afternoon, but those same backers will be overlooking the fact that Memphis bounced back from a similar beat down to the Clippers in Game 1 of their series and a devastating Game 1 loss in Oklahoma City before rattling off four straight wins. This Memphis team is legit. They were the number one defense during the regular season (89.3 pts/game) and the tenth ranked rebounding team, both double digit rankings above the Spurs.
Memphis Coach and former NBA point guard/journeyman Lionel Hollins will inspire the right kind of amnesia in his players, reminding them to take care of the ball and play to their strengths. Z-Bo will never again have a game like he did on Sunday, and Quincy Poindexter will not be the leading scorer in tonight's match-up. We believe Memphis - 24-16-1 ATS on the road this season - will build a small lead during the letdown San Antonio - 19-20-2 ATS at home - will experience early in the game when all their shots don't fall again. After that, it will be ties, lead changes, and an exciting finish. In their last 10 games as an underdog of six points or less, the Grizzlies are 6-3-1 ATS, including 5-1 ATS in the playoffs. Yes, that one loss was on Sunday, but we're gamblers and we ignore small, meaningless pieces of information...
Go Nostramarcus and Go Grizz-bo,
Vinny and Marco
Great words of wisdom from Vinny Victory and Nostramarcus....but here are some words of the non-statistical nature.
ReplyDeleteFirst, Memphis is good against the spread because they are not as well known or well bet on as the Spurs, hence the reason the Spurs are near .500 vs. the spread. However, in the playoffs, especially the conference finals, gamblers know more about the grizzlies and the line becomes more legit and not so influneced by betting. Todays line is respectful of the fact that Memphis will play better but they are outmaned at key positions. They are a post strong team that plays very physical but that is what Poppo wants in every game. I look for the three point shooting display the spurs put on to turn into a much more pentrating game with at the rim finishes followed by a lot of free throws. Spurs win again but this is not a good bet because the line is too much or too little either way.
Always great to voice thoughts that spark the interest of other interested sports fans....
Go Broncos!
Texas Todd
Cheers :D I shouldve posted this earlier but I was out, whilst I think grizzlies will improve, +5 is too low for me. Going with pop's coaching wisdom on this one.
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