NBA Playoff Pick-a-thon Day 26: Hot Tub Time Machine Meets Freaky Friday

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 42-19 ATS 

CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS: 12-5 ATS 

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 83/120 or .69

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 25: 17-7 ATS 

The game just ended in San Antonio, and all that's left to do as Warriors fans now is hope they can win there again before our kids graduate from college. Anyone have a kid graduating on Monday?

                   

Golden State looked out-manned, out-coached, out-skilled, and out of back up plans. The Warriors notorious back court of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson who took turns wreaking havoc on the Alamo in Games 1 and 2 were silenced by the "Life Guards" (copy write TSZ) of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard whose stifling defense was like a big, red warning sign by the side of the pool that reads NO SPLASHING ALLOWED. 

                             

Just wait - it'll catch on,.

In the early game, we were reminded once again why the New York Knicks will not be competing for an NBA championship any time soon. Amar'e Stoudemire looked rusty. Carmelo Anthony looked tired. And Jason Kidd should have re-tired. Talk about "not with a bang but a whimper." He hasn't scored in eight games. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers looked like and played like a team rather than a one-dimensional team with a broken dimension. This series might not end in New York, but it won't end well for the Knicks when it does. 

                    

Here are a few more observations from the past two days of Conference Semi-Final basketball. 

3. Aging Veteran Alert - there was a Richard Hamilton sighting Monday in Chicago. What? I know. Apparently, he is still in the league. I loved that guy back in the '90's. Had I known he was playing for the Bulls, I would have started a Twirus (Twitter Virus) petitioning Coach T. for more playing time. Eleven points in 22 minutes. Where the heck was he when the Bulls were getting lit up in Game 2? Come on' man, don't rip on Rip - the boy can still outrun and out-shoot most of the league. Thibodeau either considers Hamilton is a defensive liability or he thinks plastic masks are "for wusses."

                    
"Man, I could really go for some fava beans and a nice chianti"

2. Speaking of long-forgotten super stars...Tracy McGrady finally got some playing time in the Warriors-Spurs game last night. I think it was his first playing time in the second round of the playoffs since his days in Aburndale High in Florida. Unless of course you count his recent run with  the Qingdao Eagles of the CBA (Chinese Basketball Association). Real image not available due to censorship laws.

                        

1. Back to the Indiana-New York game. I'm very confused as to the NBA rules that are allowing Chris Bosh to play for the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers. I know he changes his name and shaves his goatee in an attempt to keep his secret, but let's face it - he just looks like Clark Kent and Clark Kent with a goatee. 

                        

Okay "Lance Stephenson" - feel free to collect two paychecks, but let me be the first to warn you that it's going to get tricky-like-a-Wayans-Brothers-movie in the Eastern Conference Finals when Miami plays Indiana. I mean, c'mon dude, how many times are you going to be able to come up with excuses to run to the locker room "for a minute" and "be right back." I say stick with Indy, because you look a little less serpentine without the facial hair.

                       

Let's get to today's action. And remember, if you hate basketball - scroll down to the bottom of the post for NHL and MLB handicapping.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-4.5) over Memphis Grizzlies: Back against the wall, OKC will play their hearts out at home. Durant will not let them lose and Kevin Martin and Reggie Jackson will provide him with some complementary scoring to send this series back to Memphis. What happened to the Durantula nickname, anyway?

                               

MIAMI HEAT (-14) over Chicago Bulls: With no Hinrich or Deng in sight, we don't see the Bulls covering this spread in Miami. This game will resemble last night's in San Antonio - close for a while, but one run by Miami will be enough to let the air slowly leak from the Bulls until the game is out of hand. See you next year, Joakim Fro-ah, the playoffs will miss you.

                              

I know - where's the analysis? To which I say, it's Day 26 of the NBA Playoff Pick-a-thon.

Good luck out there,

Vinny and Marco

BONUS COVERAGE FROM KYLE'S CORNER

Okay so a recap of Tuesday looks like this

MLB: 8-6-1

Overall total: 61-46-3

NHL: 1-1, It was a blowout so Pittsburgh stopped trying with an easy 4-1 lead and in the last 15 minutes of the game took 1 shot on net....

Overall total: 28-18

Now on to the Wednesday, just one game in the NHL today and it's a obvious mismatch.

NHL: Detroit @ Chicago: Detroit was lucky to advance it ends here. Chicago to win, (-1.5), over 2.5 goals.

MLB:

Hot Pitcher ride:


    "Collarbone's all better now." 

DET:   Scherzer (5-0, 3.61 ERA)
TEX:   Ogando (3-2, 3.09 ERA)
BOS:   Lester (5-0, 2.73 ERA)
STL:   Miller (5-2, 1.58 ERA)
SEA:   Iwakuma (4-1, 1.74 ERA)
LAD:   Greinke (1-0, 1.59 ERA)*

Overs!

KC:   Davis (2-3, 5.86 ERA) @ LAA:   Enright (0-1, 11.37 ERA) O9

SF:   Vogelsong (1-3, 7.78 ERA) @ TOR:   Ortiz (0-1, 3.24 ERA) *
STL:   Miller (5-2, 1.58 ERA) Team over 4.5 *

TEX:   Ogando (3-2, 3.09 ERA) @ OAK:   Straily (1-1, 7.06 ERA) O8

CHW:   Axelrod (0-3, 4.17 ERA) @ MIN:   Pelfrey (3-3, 6.03 ERA) O8.5

SD:   Marquis (4-2, 3.48 ERA) @ BAL:   Garcia (0-1, 4.26 ERA) O9

I found this gem on Bodog/Bovada NFL prop bets and died laughing:

Tim Tebow - What will happen first for Tim Tebow? 

8:00p	Throws another TD Pass in the NFL	-500
	Admits to having intercourse	+300

Anyways good luck!

Kyle

NBA Playoff Pick-a-thon Day 24: Expecting the Warriors Poor Shooting to Continue is Like...

going to a whorehouse for a kiss. Hang out long enough and you're gonna to get screwed.

                         

Game 4 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the Golden State Warriors began similarly to the arc of Game 3, with Spurs defenders clamping down on the Warrior back court of Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. The Warriors were held to a post-season low of 38% shooting, but when they needed to in the fourth quarter and overtime, they shot almost 50% from the floor - earning them the a thrilling, come from behind 97-87 victory and sending the series back to Texas for Game 5 on Tuesday.

                    
                   Klay remembers the Alamo 

Early in the first quarter, Curry nailed two three pointers helping Golden State built an early 11-6 lead while prompting me to think, "Holy shit, we're going to blow them out." But my maniacal thoughts didn't stop there, "And if Memphis knocks of Oklahoma, then it's a six seed against a five seed - anything can happen. And one injury to the Big Three, especially LeBron, oh that would be AWESOME. Yes, LeBron goes down, Miami loses to Indiana, and then Roy Hibbert goes down, too, and Lee's hip flexor re-attaches to his bone, and they change the home court advantage rules. Actually, never mind, the Warriors steal Game 1 and then sweep back at Oracle and the crowd goes nuts celebrating its first championship since 1975. And with all those rookies. This could be a dynasty. Man, I picked a great time to become a Warriors fan."

              

Before I was finished, San Antonio tightened up their defense and went on a 14-0 run. "They're going to lose in five. Dammit, Marco was right." Eight minutes into the game and I was already in full roller coaster mode. "This can't be healthy," I thought, empathizing with lifelong Warrior fans. I tried to call Marco to see if he was okay. No answer. I'm sure he was too busy pacing or asking his wife to check his pulse and get 911 on speed dial.

                            

Golden State finished the quarter strong thanks to eight straight points by my favorite Warrior of the day, Harrison Barnes, but then failed to close out a last-second triple by Manu Ginobli as time expired. The bumpy ride of exhilaration and nausea continued until the Warriors were trailing by nine about half way through the second quarter. They couldn't buy a bucket and I didn't foresee any bucket sales in their near future. It was then I decided it had been a good year for the Warriors, but the magic carpet ride looks like it's coming to an abrupt end. I stood up, turned off the TV, and went outside for a little sunshine and family.

                   

When I checked back in an hour later, Tony Parker was making his classic jump shot to give the Spurs a 62-60 lead heading into the fourth quarter. 62-60? "Holy shit," I thought, "They could pull this out," and I was right back where I was in the first quarter, sitting in my glider ten feet from the TV, rocking to and fro as though my rhythm just might help the Warriors shooting woes. When the Spurs began the fourth quarter on an 8-3 run, I was cursing Golden State's shot selection and their defensive lapses, convinced that San Antonio was just toying with them like a cat with it's half-dead prey.

               

Then Jarrett Jack happened - a bunch. And so did Klay Thompson. And the Warriors somehow managed to send the game to overtime where they could do no wrong, outscoring the Spurs 10-3 and sending the series back to San Antonio knotted at two games apiece. They did it. They played smart, they used time outs, they made shots, and they closed out a game. This, in my world of parenting and toddlers, is what we call a growth spurt.

And we thought we were going to have to give up an ATS pick by choosing with our hearts. Karma and Curry, that's all we need to keep on winning.

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 41-16 ATS 

CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS: 11-2 ATS 

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 81/114 or .71

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 23: 16-6 ATS  

Today, just to prove we don't just go with the favorites when they're not called the Golden State Warriors, we're taking a couple of dogs - one at home and one on the road. Today's a rush job all around, but trust me when I say we put a lot of time into the picks. And when I say "a lot of time," I mean, "What's Marco, I kind of like the Bulls tomorrow." 
"Me, too." 
"Sweet."

Oklahoma City Thunder (+4.5) over MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES: Until the first quarter on Saturday, this series hadn't seen a lead larger than five points. The only reason we got the cover that day was the back door free throws you sometimes see in basketball. That being said, we believe this game comes down to the wire. We're not sure if OKC has enough to send it back home tied at two, but they have enough to lose by four or less. Confidence Rating: 2

                         

CHICAGO BULLS (+7.5) over Miami Heat: If anyone can give me a reason why an extra day of rest doesn't favor Chicago here, then I'll consider changing my unpublished pick. As it is, this is the most down time the Bulls starters have had in weeks. Coach T probably just had them on bed rest, drinking large amounts of HGH and cortisone smoothies. Add a surprise appearance from Hinrich, Deng, or Rose, and you have a recipe for a three game series that starts in Miami on Wednesday. Take the Bulls and the points. Confidence Rating: 1

                                

Happy Betting, everyone. Hope you all had a wonderful weekend and celebrated the powerful women that brought you or your children into the world.

Vinny and Marco

BONUS COVERAGE FROM KYLE'S CORNER IN CANADA

Greetings all,

I'll update my totals tomorrow because I'm quickly rushing this write-up. We have two very exciting basketball games tonight so I'm going to be very selective here and only make a few picks. Sorry about yesterday - biggest statistical anomaly I've seen in years. 

NHL:
Toronto @ Boston: Game 7 in Boston: Boston should take this game and it should be a close 2-1 type of finish. So Under 5.5.



New York @ Washington: This is going to be an insane game I can't WAIT TO WATCH, I'm leaning Washington but golly it's close. Most certainly under 5.5.

MLB:

Hot Pitcher ride:


I'm so freakin' hot.

STL:   Lynn (5-1, 2.72 ERA)
PIT:   Burnett (3-3, 2.57 ERA)
DET:   Sanchez (3-3, 1.97 ERA)
CHW:   Santiago (1-1, 1.69 ERA)
WSH:   Zimmermann (6-1, 1.59 ERA)

Overs: going conservative today to gauge.

TEX:   Grimm (2-2, 3.45 ERA) @ OAK:   Griffin (3-3, 3.83 ERA)

KC:   Mendoza (0-2, 6.38 ERA) @ LAA:   Blanton (0-6, 5.66 ERA)
STL: Team over
DET: Team over
CHW: Team over

Good luck,

Kyle

NBA Playoff Pick-a-thon Day 21: Miami Has a Bird Woman, Too?

                 

The interesting part of this photograph taken when Joakim Noah was ejected from the intense, physical, foul-ridden Game 2 between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls is how each participant is experiencing the moment differently.

Black Security Guard: I knew I should have taken the Heat and laid the points.

Guy in White Shirt: You better believe I paid the surgeon to freeze her mouth like that.

Blonde Woman: Your shirt much more closely matches my fingernail polish than my purse, you moron.

Kid on the Bottom Right: Why is that woman wearing a scarf for a shirt?

Joakim Noah: God dammit, Mom. You can be such a bitch.

                                 
"Joakim told me amaranth, but the road uni's are clearly crimson."

Noah's mother and Internet sensation, Cecilia Rodhe, later admitted at a press conference that what started out as a wardrobe mis-communication between her and her son, ended up with her being consumed by the mob mentality sweeping through American Airlines Arena Wednesday night.

Friday night, the conference semi-finals shift to to Chicago and Oakland with both series knotted at one. After a day off (or five if your any of the other four teams I can't remember because it has been so long since they played), let's hope the rest doesn't kill the momentum we've built over the past three weeks.

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 37-15 ATS 

CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS: 7-1 ATS 

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 76/107 or .71

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 19: 14-5 ATS  

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-3) over San Antonio Spurs: San Antonio Spurs coach and future Hall of Famer Greg Popavich has led his team through over 200 playoff games in his seventeen years with the organization, winning 123 of them and claiming 4 NBA titles along the way. If there's anyone who can make coaching adjustments after being embarrassed at home for 90 of the 106 minutes they played, it's Pop. Unfortunately for him, "Roar"acle, the Golden State Warriors home arena, is undefeated this post-season against legendary coaches trying to make adjustments. Advantage: Warriors

                     

Couple that with the fact that Klay Thompson was the top Google search in the world yesterday, and you have a recipe for San Antonio disaster. Everyone knew that the Splash Brothers were comprised of Stephen Curry and some other really good shooter, but now they know his name. San Antonio, I'd like to introduce you to The Curse of the Alam(eda Freeway). Tonight: Make that 0-3 since 2012. I'd give up 20 points here - and then ask for 16 back towards the end of the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, Warriors go up 2-1 and cover. Confidence Rating: 2

                             

Miami Heat (-7.5) over CHICAGO BULLS: If the Bulls were any healthier - just a little Deng or Heinrich  defensive presence we would have taken Chicago. As it is, I don't see the home floor slowing down the Miami offense or intimidating their defense enough to keep this close. I'll be rooting for the Bulls but taking my heart out of it in hopes of keeping our conference semi-finals streak alive. Confidence Rating: 1

                        

That's a Bull in a Heat wave if you didn't get my subtlety.

Enjoy your weekends, everyone. See you tomorrow for continued NBA playoff coverage.

Vinny and Marco

BONUS COVERAGE FROM KYLE'S CORNER IN CANADA

Greetings as everyone. It's Friday and the NBA is alive and well.

      

Plus, I KILLED IT with my picks! I'm a very system based unit gambler so my fluctuation can never be crazy but it was a noticeable spike today. Without further adieu! My recap:

NHL: 7-2, (7-1 for me I didn't end up betting the low confidence over 6) full updates = 18-7

MLB: 4-3, full = 26-19-2 

Again two of the three MLB losses were just razor thin, Detroit lost by 1 and Yankees won but only by 3 not 5.

Ok so for today's picks:

Starting with NHL (1 being most confident then downward) I'm picking all the games, just straight winners no really amazing bets today.

1. Boston Bruins.
2. Washington Capitals. (Doesn't that Ovechkin picture just scream "Showtime!")
3. Anaheim Ducks.
4. Los Angeles Kings.

         

Now for MLB!

Hot pitcher ride:

              

DET:   Scherzer (4-0, 3.43 ERA)
CIN:   Cingrani (2-0, 2.63 ERA)
BOS:   Lester (4-0, 3.30 ERA)
STL:   Miller (4-2, 1.96 ERA)
SEA:   Iwakuma (3-1, 1.61 ERA)

Overs!

CLE:   Kluber (2-1, 3.06 ERA) @ DET:   Scherzer (4-0, 3.43 ERA) O8.5

TOR:   Ortiz (0-0, 5.40 ERA) @ BOS:   Lester (4-0, 3.30 ERA) O-Anything

PIT:   Rodriguez (2-2, 4.02 ERA) @ NYM:   Marcum (0-2, 7.20 ERA) O7.5

NYY:   Hughes (1-2, 3.60 ERA) @ KC:   Davis (2-2, 4.75 ERA) O8.5

BAL:   Hammel (5-1, 4.10 ERA) @ MIN:   Pelfrey (3-3, 6.35 ERA) O9

MIA:   Fernandez (1-2, 3.48 ERA) @ LAD:   Magill (0-0, 7.88 ERA) O6.5

ATL:   Hudson (4-1, 3.83 ERA) @ SF:   Cain (1-2, 5.57 ERA) O6.5

TEX:   Ogando (3-2, 3.08 ERA) @ HOU:   Keuchel (0-1, 4.96 ERA) O8.5o

Good luck all, 

Kyle

NBA Playoff Pick-a-thon Day 17: Warriors and Bulls Set to Sweep Conference Semi-Final...

...ATS Championships.



POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 31-15 ATS 

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 67/98 or .68

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 16: 11-5 ATS    

Although the reigning MVP/NBA Champion/Gold Medal Winner/Classical Concert Violinist/Special Education Teacher/Devout Gandhian Pacifist/ and Rocket Scientist (did I forget anything Marco?) LeBron James and his Miami Heat are the clear cut favorites to defend their NBA title and the San Antonio Spurs - thanks to the injury gods in OKC - have become the front-runners out West to meet said Heat in an Old School-New School championship showdown, Marco and I are making the bold prediction that both the Chicago Bulls and the Golden State Warriors will do just enough to cover their Game 1 spreads and steal home court advantage in their mutual pursuit of second-shelf, ATS championship glory. 

                            

When you know deep down inside that you're probably not going to win an NBA title this year or any year that LeBron is paired up with two of the other top twenty NBA players, then you start scrambling for moral victories which include but are not limited to: winning the rebound battle, keeping the Heat under 50% shooting, making Mario Chalmers beat you, sleeping with LeBron's mom (no, Delonte it doesn't count when you're teammates), or covering a disrespectful double digit point spread like the one being thrown at the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 as if they were some second rate D League team from Milwaukee. 

Can I get a sheesh already? Sheesh.

Chicago Bulls (+11.5) over MIAMI HEAT: Today's games in Oklahoma City and New York showed us that if a road team is going to win or cover a game, it's probably going to happen in Game 1. Chicago has momentum coming into this series - and I mean that in the physical sense that their legs were probably so weak Saturday night they couldn't have stopped their forward progress if they wanted to. By Monday night, however, I have no doubt the Bulls will arrive in South Beach ready to play with the same awe-inspiring enthusiasm that helped them become just the 23rd road team in NBA history to win a Game 7.

               

You know you're in trouble when the Bleacher Report preview has a picture of these two squaring off. What the picture doesn't show, however, is that Miami does have a weakness - they finished dead last in rebounds this year while the Bulls finished eighth. If Boozer and Noah can control the boards like they did to close out the Nets, Chicago has a shot to cover any spread against any team.

Miami was a pedestrian 22-19 ATS at home this year and are 1-1 in the playoffs so far. As a favorite, which was all but seven games this year, they were just a smidgen over .500 at 40-35. Meanwhile, Chicago had a terrible home ATS but played well on the road during the regular season (22-17 ATS) plus winning twice in semi-hostile Brooklyn. Will there be rust in humid Miami? My sources - AKA the voice in my head - says, "You betchya." Take the points - at the very least the Bulls won't quit until the final buzzer.

Golden State Warriors (+8.5) over SAN ANTONIO SPURS: Yes, it's true that the Golden State Warriors haven't won a game in San Antonio since the Spice Girls were topping the pop charts with "Say You'll Be There" and David Beckham-Spice was only just learning how to bend things at all. Charles Barkley put it best when he heard the Warriors are now 0-29 in San Antonio since 1997 saying, "That sounds like a totally made up stat. That's trrrble." And it does. And it is.

                        

But you know what, I was 0-29 at picking up girls at bars until I met my wife and finally managed to steal the win or at least cover the spread and get her number so I could invite her to a fictional party I said I was throwing the next weekend. Sometimes you have to keep opening the door over and over and over again in hopes that one day your timing lands you face to face with opportunity. Mark Jackson, knowing that luck favors the prepared, will make sure his Warriors do just that.

If you need some numbers to support the pick - as if zero, two, and nine (0-29) weren't enough - then how about the fact that San Antonio was a sub .500 team ATS both at home (19-20-2) and on the road (20-21). Couple that with the fact that they had the second best record in the West and it tells me the Spurs play close games.

And finally, although Stephen Curry responded appropriately with the question, "Was he drunk?", Spurs coach San Antonio said watching Curry shoot is like Watching Michael Jordan. Sorry, Pop, flattery will get you nowhere. You might "win" the game, but you won't win the hearts of San Antonio gamblers. Not tonight.

Recklessly Devoted to You, to The Spread Zone, and to Gambling,

Vinny and Marco