NBA Playoff Picks - Spurs vs Mavericks and More - 4/30/14

Well, well, well - a nice little run this week and we're fast approaching our 2013 stats that earned us international fame and very local fortune. And by international, I mean Canada, and by fortune I mean someone sent us a few bucks for a cup of coffee and told us to please stop littering our garbage all over the Internet.



April 30th, 2013 Stats: 22-11 ATS

April 30th, 2014 Stats: 21-15 ATS (including 1 total)

April 30th, 2013 Top Confidence Picks: 8-2 ATS

April 30th, 2014 Top Confidence Picks: 6-3 ATS

We're nothing if not consistent, and although we're not quite where we'd like to be (58%), we're becoming more familiar with the teams, the trends, and the stamina of the players left in the playoffs. The combination of confidence and familiarity serves not only the players and the teams earning their way into second round, but also us sports bettors trying to earn a few bucks while along the way. As the the young players find their bearings in the new, heightened intensity of the post-season, they grow up quickly and either exit early or realize they can compete. As cappers, we have to adjust and make our picks accordingly. Let's find out what I'm talking about.

TORONTO RAPTORS (-3.5) over Brooklyn Nets: When the Raptors lost Game 1, it appeared that inexperience might be the kiss of death in this series. Having won two of the last three, however, and evening the series heading into tonight's game, and suddenly the youthful glow of playing with house money (home court advantage house money that is) appears to be the blessing that could earn them a trip to Miami next week. Had Brooklyn won Game 2 in Toronto, this series might be over by now. As it is, however, the Raptors have the momentum and will probably win and cover Game 5 comfortably. Although the road team and underdog has gone 3-0-1 ATS through the first four games, the Nets are a paltry 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Is Father Time winning again?



SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-6.5) over Dallas Mavericks: Much like the Memphis/OKC series, it appears only a fool would give up the points when the average margin of victory between these teams - aside from Dallas's 21 point Game 2 blowout - has been approximately three points. We believe, however, that the San Antonio's ability to salvage the split in Dallas and regain home court advantage will spur (see what I did there) them on to a huge, double-digit home win tonight. Keep in mind that San Antonio had a 20 point lead in Game 4 before they almost imploded. They build a lead like that at home and it will only get bigger. Spurs win huge.


"I'm gonna say Spurs by eight."

Portland Trailblazers (+5.5) over HOUSTON ROCKETS: Why wouldn't we take the points? Underdog is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 between these teams and the road team is 5-0 ATS in as many games. Don't over think this one - take the points and watch another instant classic between these fun, offensive powerhouses.



Top Confidence Pick: We're going with the Rip City +5.5.

May the Spreads Be With Us All,

Vinny and Marco

NBA Playoff Picks - 4/29/14

Well, the tides must be turning because last night Marco and I earned our first half point cover when our top confidence pick - San Antonio (-3.5) - pulled out the extremely late back door, free throw cover,  beating the Dallas Mavericks by four. Well I say it's about freakin' time. Sadly, I caught the line at -4.5 when I placed my wager, so I'll just put our published pride in my bank account and find out on the first if that's good enough for rent. Here's where we stand through Monday Night:

2014 NBA Playoff Record to Date: 18-15 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 5-3 ATS



It's a busy day over here in this living room operation, so let's get right to today's NBA action. The winner's of Game 5 have most often gone on to win the best of 7 series - especially when they're already up 3-1. That's a math joke for Bulls fans. In Oklahoma City and Los Angeles, the Thunder and the Clippers look to take advantage of home cookin' and push the Grizz and the Warriors to the brink of elimination. We're not sure who's going to win the games, but we have a good idea of who's going to cover.

So far in 2014 we've had some of the best playoff basketball top to bottom that the NBA has ever seen. Gone are the days of a clear-cut favorite to come out of a series let alone a conference. Although Miami still looks to be the team to bet on in the East, we could see both Brooklyn and Toronto giving them trouble in the next round. As for the West, your guess is as good as ours.


Washington Wizards (+4.5) over CHICAGO BULLS: We've been backing the Bulls all series, waiting for their vaunted defense to allow them to jump out to a lead they can hold onto. Turns out there is no magic number safe enough as the young, upstart Wizards have been playing as loose and fast as some of my ex-girlfriends - and similarly coming out on top. Chicago may have a prayer to send this series back to Washington, but we don't think it's a 5+ point prayer. Take the points and if you're a Chicago fan well...I hope you like the White Sox. How about that Jose Abreu kid, huh?

  
"That's hilarious. I love math jokes."

Memphis Grizzlies (+6.5) over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER: When three of four games have gone to overtime, you'd be a fool not to take the points. That's all we have to say on this one. Oklahoma City was fortunate to get back home with a series tie, but may not be as fortunate to leave home with one. That's a math joke for everyone. Take the points.



Golden State Warriors vs LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS - OVER 210: Sorry, we can't pick for or against our Warriors in this one, so we're taking the side door approach and going with a total. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series and the Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 visits to L.A, so that doesn't look promising. The OVER, however, is 6-1 in the last 7 in L.A. and 10-3 in the last 13 overall. We'll roll with the OVER and hope the Warriors can pull the upset, too.



Top confidence Pick: We'll roll with MEMPHIS (+6.5) and put a side wager on a fourth overtime game.

May the Spreads Be with Us All,

Vinny and Marco

NBA Playoff Picks - 4/28/14

See what happens when you don't complain about half point losses? The very next day the gambling gods hand you a thrilling, instant classic, come-from-behind, overtime, one-point cover. It would be interesting at some point to go back at analyze our picks from the perspective of:

1. Smart - covers by five+
2. Dumb - missed covers by 5+
3. Lucky - covers by 1 or less
4. Sad - those half point losses

Yesterday's results would have ended up being 2 Smarts, a Dumb, and a Lucky. The end results, however, is our first burst above .500. Much like 2013, Marco and I are getting to know the teams almost as well as they're getting to know each other. Things should become clearer as they playoffs move forward. For now, let's keep the momentum going as we build on a 3-1 ATS and hope to improve these stats:

NBA Playoff Record to Date: 16-14 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 4-3 ATS

Paltry to say the least, so let's see if we can get some W-L separation with tonight's match-ups.

Miami Heat (-7.5) over CHARLOTTE BOBCATS: This is probably our least confident pick of the night, but we're going to roll with the defending champs and touchdown favs to take advantage of the opportunity for rest as their potential next round match-ups (BRK/TOR) are all tied at two apiece. We'd normally take a team with their backs against the wall at home, but Game 3 showed us that the "on switch" has been flipped for the Heat. I mentioned to Bobcat fans that we might take Charlotte and the points in this game, and we have no doubt that Kemba and Co. will put up a fight, but in an elimination game, there will be late fouls and free throws that inch that score above the cover.


"Is that the exit, Lebron? Okay thanks?"

INDIANA PACERS (-7) over Atlanta Hawks: We're not afraid to give up the points here. The second half of Game 2 in Indy showed us how good that Pacers defense can be, while Game 4 in Atlanta reminded us that although the NBA is full of millionaires playing a game for a living, they're also a bunch of kids who get fired up when they can rise to the occasion in the face of criticism and media hype. We see Roy Hibbert finally getting into this series and putting his mark on it with a game changing double-double and several key block. Indy early and Indy late.



San Antonio Spurs (-3.5) over DALLAS MAVERICKS: We predicting a letdown game after Vince Carter's buzzer beater. This is almost an elimination game for the Spurs, as a 3-1 deficit in the NBA is a deep hole to climb out of. I don't think anyone knew San Antonio's hands would be quite this full, but it's not too late for Pop and the Big Three to roll to a 4-2 series win. That begins tonight with a "Smart" mini-rout tonight. Give up the points.



Top Confidence Pick: Fool me once, shame on me, but we'll roll with the Spurs again - San Antonio (-3.5) over Dallas.

Yikes. I never feel great about picking all favorites, but that's just the kind of night it's going to be. We've had some great basketball, some close games, and we predict an ebb in that flow on a Monday evening in late April. If you love the Heat, the Pacers, or the Spurs, enjoy the predictability.

May the Spreads Be With Us All,

Vinny and Marco

Donald Sterling News

Well, the bad news is we had another .500 day at The Spread Zone. The good news is we all got some pretty darn good playoff basketball for our viewing pleasure. The best news of all is despite 3 half point ATS losses in the first week, Marco and I are still doggy paddling at the dead even mark.

NBA Playoff Record to Date: 13-13 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 3-3 ATS

I've always said I'd rather be .500 with three half point losses than .500 with three half point wins. And by "always said" I mean I just said it now and will continue to do so...always. Here's my reasoning. If we'd been lucky enough to get those wins, we'd be 16-10 ATS, but if we'd already had those wins and were .500, unluckiness would have us at 10-16 ATS. The only reason I'm even mentioning those losses is because there have only been three and we've missed on all of them. Does that make us bad handicappers? No - just unlucky so far. It will balance out, it will become a moot point, and I will stop talking about it...right now.

Let's get to today's action, because we're only about two and a half hours from tip off.

Chicago Bulls (+2.5) over WASHINGTON WIZARDS: No Nene, no way way. Charles Barkley thinks the Washington Wizards - when healthy - are the third best team in the Eastern Conference. According to their W-L records, however, Chicago was better in the East and against the East by 4 and 2 games respectively. Stick those teams in the West, however, and neither one would have made the playoffs. What does all of this mean? Absolutely nothing. I honestly can't say the stats support our pick here. In fact, Washington is 28-11 ATS in their last 39 avenging a home loss and 19-6 ATS avenging losses where the opponent scored 100 plus. However, the Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 trips to DC, the road team is 20-8 ATS in the series, and the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last eleven meetings. If defense wins championships or even just games, why is everyone making such a big deal about Chicago's offensive woes? Take the points.



GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (+2) over Los Angeles Clippers: Man, what a spectacle the owner of the Clippers has become since last we spoke of this series. Listening to the tape and reading the transcripts, what surprises me more than his racist comments about African Americans is that nobody's talking about what a controlling asshole the guy is. I'll bet you could have substituted just about anything or anyone for Magic Johnson in the alleged Instagram photos and Sterlings comments would have been almost identical:

"And I'm just saying that it's too bad you can't admire [Olaf the snowman] privately. And during your ENTIRE FUCKING LIFE, your whole life, admire [Olaf the snowman] -- bring  here, feed him, fuck him, I don't care. You can do anything. But don't put [Olaf the snowman] on an Instagram for the world to see so they have to call me. And don't bring [Olaf] to my games. OK?"



I'm just sayin'. The guy is a jealous, controlling, old, ugly asshole. Racist on top of that doesn't really surprise me. Nonetheless, there's nothing to rally around here for the Clippers, so we'll take the home team to bounce back from the terrible officiating in Game 3 and send this series back to L.A. knotted at two.

PS: How much does a hipster weigh? Answer - an Instagram.

Toronto Raptors (+4) over BROOKLYN NETS: I still can't name a single Raptors player, but I just like the way those spunky Canadians play ball. It's like a whole team of Steve Nash's, Kelly Olynk's, and Cory Josephs skating on the hardwood like a bunch of pipe fitters at a gong show. Am I right or am I right? The Toronto Raptors are a great story and we like how they've now acclimated to the playoffs and are unafraid of the Brooklyn Nets - except when Pierce and Garnett take out their fake teeth to drink their Gatorade. Yikes. The underdog is 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and we like that trend to continue. We're not only convinced Toronto gets the cover today, but likely the outright win.



PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS (-2) over Houston Rockets: There are so many stats supporting another Rockets pick here. The underdog and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the Rockets are probably the only team in the league that has gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Portland. We just don't see them duplicating their performance in Game 3. Although this series may still go seven, Houston is going to have to win home court back in Game 6 because it isn't happening tonight.



Top Confidence Pick: We're going with the Trailblazers and their Rip City uniforms tonight.

May the Spreads be With Us All,

Vinny and Marco