Once Is Luck, Twice Is a Pattern
By: Will S., TSZ Guest Writer
Houston Texans – Over/Under- 10.5 Wins
If you are a Houston Texans fan, there is a lot to be excited
about in this coming season. Not only are they coming off a season in which
they won the AFC South and a playoff game over the Cincinnati Bengals, but they
also have the core of their team all returning.
Since former Dallas Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips became
the Defensive Coordinator, the Texans have seen a drastic improvement in their
defense. Last season they were the seventh best rush defense in the NFL, only
giving up 97.5 yards rushing a game. Another reason we have seen a great
improvement in the Texan’s defense is the emergence of defensive end J.J. Watt.
Watt has grown into one of the most dominant defensive players in the game
today. The former Wisconsin Badger had 20.5 sacks in just his second year in
the NFL, that’s 15 more sacks than he had his rookie season. If I am any other
team in the NFL besides the Texans, I am terrified, because Watt is only TWENTY
FOUR years old. Barring injury, this guy’s
only scratching the surface of his potential. Imagine a similar improvement
this year. Scary.
What makes the Texans a dangerous team is the balance
between their offense and defense. You see it so often that a team will have a
great offense, but then their mediocre defense will keep them from becoming a
great team. For example, the New Orleans Saints in the years since their Super
Bowl title, and also this Texans team before the arrival of Wade Phillips. The
2012 Texans offense, led by Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, were
also ranked seventh in the NFL. This
balance could prove to the recipe for success in this upcoming season, which is
the reason I am suggesting taking the Over 10.5 wins. I think they will end
the season 11 and 5, due to a pretty tough schedule, but don’t sleep on this
team come playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts – Over/Under- 8.5 Wins
To me, this Over/Under is a no brainer. I think the Colts will definitely get Over 8.5 wins in Andrew Luck’s
second NFL season.
Last year, the Indianapolis Colts were the feel good story
of the season. Coming off of a 2-14 season, they acquired Andrew Luck as the
number one pick in the draft. Although they knew he was very talented, nobody
really knew what to expect from him as a rookie. Once the season started, the
Colts head coach, Chuck Pagano, was diagnosed with leukemia and had to leave
the team to get treatment. Seeing their head coach fighting leukemia and still
doing his best to help the team out, the Colts decided that they needed to be
“Chuck-Strong.” And they were. An 11 and 5 record grabbed a wild card spot in
the playoffs, where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore
Ravens.
Andrew Luck was phenomenal last season. He threw for 4,374
yards with 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Colts fans would like to see
that interceptions number go down a little bit, but think about this - in
Peyton Manning’s rookie season with the Colts, he had 28 interceptions. We all
know what Manning has turned himself into since a mediocre rookie season. So there is a lot to be looking forward to
for Colts fans with their stud young quarterback.
The Colts’ defense was one of the youngest in the NFL last
year and should only get better and better if they can keep this same group
together. I look for the defense to be much improved from last season.
After one rough season in 2011, it looks like it’s back to
being a perennial playoff team for the Colts. This organization has been very
fortunate to see the type of quarterback play they have seen and should not
take Andrew Luck for granted like they did with Peyton Manning.
Tennessee Titans—Over/Under- 6.5 Wins
To me, the success of this team completely relies on how Chris Johnson can play. If he can get back to the level he was at back in 2009 when he rushed for over 2,000, this team will without a doubt win at least 7 games. But the last few seasons the Titans have seen their running back’s production go way down. This is a big concern for Tennessee because this is the same guy who was thought of as the best running back in the NFL just 4 seasons ago. I am still a believer in Chris Johnson - he is still one of the top 5 fastest players in the NFL and he can find himself in open space, he will have a big year this year.
Another player I look to have a big year is wide receiver Kendall Wright. The former Baylor Bear star has both world class speed and big play capability. He is great at finding himself behind the secondary for those long 45 yard touchdown plays. He is also great at finding the opening in the zone and has very good hands. Wright - another player I had the privilege of seeing live in college and high school - could develop into an All-Pro receiver in this league.
With that being said, I am going to take the Under 6.5 wins on this one. I think it will be a learning year and the defense will struggle. Johnson will rush for around 1,400 yards, giving fans reason to believe he can get back to an elite level. But it won’t be quite enough for this team to make any noise in the AFC South. But in the 2014-15 season, you just might remember the Titans.
Jacksonville Jaguars—Over/Under- 4.5 Wins
This is a tough one. With a young quarterback and a stud receiver,
you would expect the future would be bright for the Jaguars. I, however, remain
skeptical about Blaine Gabbert. I don’t think the former Missouri Tiger will
ever develop into the quarterback that the Jaguars were hoping for. Maybe I am
wrong, but from the few times I’ve watched the Jaguars, he’s given me no reason
to think otherwise.
Maybe rookie head coach, Gus Bradley, can come in and turn
it around for the Jags. He is the type of coach that is always energetic and
will demand excellence from this team. He was a good hire for this young Jacksonville
squad.
The Jaguars have some weapons on offense. Maurice Jones-Drew
has been one of the best running backs in the league for the past 5 or so
years. With Justin Blackman going into his second year in the league, this
offense could be scary if the ball gets in the right hands. Blackmon’s rookie
stats weren’t terrific, picking up 865 yards and only 5 touchdowns, but when I
saw Blackmon play live in his last season at Oklahoma State, he was an
unbelievably dominating player. Some of the catches he made were just
ridiculous - and with 2 or 3 defenders draped all over him. The reason his
stats weren’t very impressive is because of the quarterback, so if Gabbert can
improve you should see Blackmon’s stats start to rise. I see him tallying 1,100
yards receiving with at least 8 touchdowns in his sophomore season.
"Trade you this puppy for a win."
I would take the Over 4.5 games on the Jags, but I wouldn’t put too
much money on it. I just feel that this team, being in a weak division, can win
5 games being, even though the franchise has only seen 7 wins the past two
years combined.
AFC South Projected Final 2013-14 Standings:
Team W L
Houston 11 5
Indianapolis 10 6
Tennessee 6
10
Jacksonville 5
11
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