Preseason Record to Date: 2-2 ATS
Not exactly the way we wanted to celebrate the launch of www.thespreadzone.com, but now that we know mediocrity always foreshadows greatness, we're relieved we didn't sweep all four games like the very disappointing 2012 Philadelphia Eagles or even go 3-1 like seven teams who missed the playoffs altogether last year. In fact, only three teams with preseason records better than .500 in 2012 made the post-season at all: Seattle, San Francisco, and Houston.
I won't be dwelling on preseason losses, but with hindsight being far less visually impaired than forecasting, I did recognize our mistakes almost immediately. In picking the Detroit Lions and against the Atlanta Falcons, I cited their coaches extreme preseason records, saying one hates to lose and the other doesn't care if they win. Both true, but with extreme and publicized trends such as these, you'd better believe Vegas line makers are aware of them and taking them into account. Seeing Detroit getting points in Cleveland should have been a warning sign. Fool us once...
Although it's a quick turnaround, Marco and I have been pounding the Vitamin Water, chewing our Gatorade gum, and switching back to regular season electronic cigarettes, chewing tobacco, and cloves, so let's see if we can't shake off the rest of the rust with Friday night's intriguing schedule. And by intriguing, I mean there's about half a game I'm really interested in.
BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5) over Minnesota Vikings: "It's better to be fast than smart," said the fast dumb guy, and the Buffalo Bills are taking that philosophy and running - really fast - with it. By shedding Ryan Fitzpatrick and his 48/50 Wonderlic Test score this off-season and adopting the no huddle offense, the Bills look like a brand new team capable of sneaking into an 8-8 record and second place in the AFC East. Their back-up running back - Fred Davis - is a starter on most fantasy teams across the country, which should be more than enough information to cough up the points. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Adrian Peterson is too busy carrying a mic and defending Johnny Manzeil to put in any serious time in this game. The Bills are playing for their fans in this one, paying back their misery one preseason game at a time. Buffalo to win handily.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Well, New England Patriots fans breathed a collective sigh of relief today when Tom Brady returned to the practice field just a day after leaving the joint session with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Apparently, Brady feels fine and intends to play. Chances are Belichick won't do much more than start him for a couple of series, but that will be enough to give the Patriots a 14-0 lead to play with. This was the only game today we split with our expert, Nick, who went 4-0 yesterday. When the regular season kicks off, we'll have everyone's picks at your disposal.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6) over Oakland Raiders: Drew Brees may not tip for take out, but when it comes to home cooking - he's all in. Sean Peyton is back at the helm now and ex-Cowboy defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has taken on the task of rebuilding a Saints defense that gave up more points than any team in NFL history. The Oakland Raiders, however, have former LSU quarterback and famed Green Bay back-up Matt Flynn who earned a big money contract by throwing six touchdowns on the final day of the 2011-12 season when the Packers were resting Aaron Rogers for the playoffs. The next year in Seattle he lost his job to Russell Wilson and now finds himself looking over his shoulder at the likes of Terrelle Pryor, Matt McGloin, and Tyler Wilson. The last two are country singers with really good arms, which means it's going to be another one of those years for the Oakland Raiders.
"What do you mean you haven't heard of me?"
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1.5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Ahh, the half a game I'm interested in. Former San Francisco Forty-Niner quarterback Alex Smith, who lost his job last season when he missed a few games with a concussion, welcomes his former team to Arrowhead stadium where he is now the starter for the Andy Reid-led Kansas City Chiefs. Whether he was on the first team or the second team last year, Alex Smith had plenty of opportunities to play against the much heralded San Francisco defense, which will give him enough of an edge to put some points on the board before he passes the torch to Daniel Chase for the last two plus quarters. The Forty Niners, on the other hand, have been losing players to injury since day one of training camp, and would love to just get to the regular season without any more getting in harms way. If all the trends say Andy Reid doesn't care about preseason games, then this time we're take Mr. Reid.
For those of you arriving here without first visiting our website, don't forget to come by and explore The Spread Zone - www.thespreadzone.com - the one-stop shop for all your gambling needs. We have articles, archives, daily free picks, and a special (and nominal) TSZ Insider benefit package. If you want to know the exhilarating feeling of becoming a TSZ Insider, just ask Archie and Michael who reinforced all our hard work by signing up almost immediately. Thanks guys - that was like Christmas come early.
Good luck,
Vinny and Marco
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