Compelling Trends Or Vegas Bait?

As we head into Week 3 of the NFL Preseason, fans and bettors alike are learning to expect the unexpected. The first week saw 10 of 15 road teams win and cover, while Week 2 reversed the trend  with 13 of 16 home teams winning and most of them covering, too. Needless to say, Week 3 is anyone's guess, and with a lot of small lines and potentially even match-ups, betting on games will be somewhat of an adventure. While some coaches have the philosophy of gearing up for the regular season, others are more concerned with fine tuning schemes and keeping players healthy. Keeping all of these factors in mind, here are a few trends that may help you make your ATS picks this week. 

1. Large Lines: Favorites of 6+ are just 6-12 in Week 3 since 2003, and 1-9 ATS since 2008 (5-5 SU with six of the games decided by three points or less). The Denver Broncos, hosting the St. Louis Rams Saturday night, began the week as 6.5 point favorites.

 

2. Coaching Considerations: New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is 0-5-1 in his last 6 Week 3 preseason games, while New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has lost his last 5 games in the preseason's third week. Does this mean we should go all in on the New York Jets and the Detroit Lions? Not necessarily. When stats are this glaringly obvious, you'd better believe  the odds makers are aware of them, too. Similarly, Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak - 20-8 SU in the preseason - is notorious for seeking out the wins in Weeks 1 & 2 to build confidence, then tweaking things and getting rest in Weeks 3 & 4. Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith has a similar philosophy, but there are other forces at play in his game this week. 



3. Home Dogs:  The home underdogs are usually a good bet in the regular season and better one in the preseason. In Week 3, however, they are a sub par 9-14-1 record since 2008. Not sure what that means, but buyer beware. An example of a home dog that might bite you in the ass is the Oakland Raiders giving up 3.5 points to the visiting Green Bay Packers. 

        


4. Rest for the Weary: Interestingly, less is more and more is more, too, when it comes to days of rest in the preseason. Teams with less than six days between games are 22-15-1 in Week 3, but underdogs fair much better at 13-6-1 than favorites 9-9. On the other end of the spectrum, underdogs playing on nine days of rest are 8-3 since 2003 - and this week that means you should consider carefully the Cleveland Browns, the San Diego Chargers, and the Atlanta Falcons. The Philadelphia Eagles are in this position visiting Jacksonville this week, but favorites on long rest are only 6-9-1 ATS since '03.



So there you have it - a cheat sheet of sorts to help you make some important decisions as you gear up for your pool, your bookie, your online account, or just the office pride of being able to shout at a fellow employee that your team is better than his/hers in meaningless games. 

Good luck.

Vinny