1. The emergence of free agency in the NFL has created such fluidity in team rosters from year to year that entire organizations are often transformed within a few seasons, making trends that span a decade relatively meaningless. How much do you know about the players and philosophies of all the coaches and coordinators over the life of that trend? Nonetheless, we continue to use the stats, trends, and anomalies to support our picks all the time. We're just a little more cautious about it now.
2. The media. I shouldn't have to say anymore than that, but I will because that's what I do. The media surrounding certain teams and their tendencies hypes up certain patterns in a coach's or a quarterback's behavior during the preseason, the regular season, in division games, and so on. If you hear things or see things enough - especially when they're spoken by guys named Czar or Swamie or Jaws, you start thinking they're not only facts but cause and effect predictors.
3. If all of the sports betting sites know about the trend, and all of the ESPN analysts know about the trend, and Marco and I know about it, then you'd better believe the odds makers in Las Vegas and wherever else they hang out know all about it, too. For more about the hazards of blind trend-watching, check out the Gambloogling Page at www.thespreadzone.com and read up.
All of that being said, let's talk trends and preseason Thursday Night Football:
New England Patriots (+2) over DETROIT LIONS: Anyone that's anyone knows that Bill Belichick has lost his last five preseason Week 3 games. Those same Anyones also know that there's nothing Belichick hates more than being called predictable. Remember when all the talk centered around his one-dimensional grey, sleeveless hoodie wardrobe? What did he do the next week? He busted out the dark granite hoodie. In your faces, soothsayers.
"Don't tell me what I wear."
On the other side of the ball, Jim Schwartz hates to lose and his impressive preseason record has also been repeated ad nauseum. Unfortunately, his regular season record slipped to just nauseum last year, and the Lions still haven't found their groove as they head into the 2013-14 season. Although the Patriots have lost several Week 3 games in a row, Tom Brady averages 20+ passes in those games, and as we know Mr. Roboto just gets more and more efficient as the years go by. It's just too obvious to take the Lions based on the numbers.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: John Harbaugh is 4-1 ATS in Week 3 of the preseason as head coach of the Ravens. This, however, is a different Ravens team than we've seen in the past few years. Their defense has been slipping, giving up 24 points to the Falcons last week - most of them in the first half - and they also lost some offensive weapons to free agency in the off-season. We believe the Panthers tenth ranked defense will keep them in the game, while their depth at wide receiver will allow them to put up points even when the second and third strings go in.
If you'd like another opinion on game 1 from our expert team - you won't get one. The Patriots were the unanimous choice. As far as the second game, however, there was an even split between the Ravens and the Panthers. This is a great example of a game that won't make our TSZ Insider Friday Five.
Good luck and see you back at The Spread Zone for Friday Night's picks.
Vinny and Marco
www.thespreadzone.com
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