One of my favorite moments of a very disappointing Saturday for The Spread Zone came late in the second half of the San Diego-Arizona game. The Chargers had the ball, second and goal at the one, when Ryan Matthews leaped over the offensive line, fumbled the ball, the Cardinals recovered, tried inexplicably to lateral the ball, then coughed it up to a San Diego Charger Kory Sperry who raced into the end zone for a touchdown. The play itself was a disaster compounded by a disaster, but it all happened so fast that the shot of the entire Cardinals stadium jumping up and down and screaming as the Chargers scored was preseason poetry.
As for The Spread Zone, there's nothing poetic about going .500, but the way things looked about half way through the third quarter of those games, we'll take it. Fortunately, we got off to a good start this week, so even with our forgettable Saturday our current Preseason Stats are as follows:
Saturday Games: 5-5 ATS
Preseason Week 3: 8-6 ATS
Preseason Total to Date: 19-11 ATS
What's in store for Sunday? Two pretty darn good games. We're not putting any real money down on these games, but we'll always put at least two cents in for you. Let's get to it.
New Orleans Saints (+3) over HOUSTON TEXANS: What? Another road team? Are we shaking your confidence in us? Well, as much as we worried going into today, road teams have fared just as well as we have this week going 8-6 ATS. Gary Kubiak loves to win preseason games - but mostly he likes to win them in Weeks 1 & 2, going 14-4 SU. In Weeks 3 & 4, however, he is just 6-10. Meanwhile, Sean Payton's preseason record is nothing to get excited about at 17-15 SU, but if there were a week you could count on, call it Week 3 at 4-1 SU.
The 2-0 New Orleans Saints are looking for every opportunity to help their fans and the rest of the league forget about 2012. Last week Drew Brees played the entire first half, and you can bet he'll do the same on Sunday. Look for the Saints to jump out to an early lead and hold on when the scrubs take over. Take New Orleans to not only cover but win.
SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings: In a story broken by ESPN last week, San Francisco Forty Niners second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick believes that when all is said and done Ron Jaworski could end up as the greatest NFL analyst ever to grace the studios in Bristol, Connecticut. Or at the very least, the most prone to hyperbole.
Earlier this week on a slow sports day, Jaworski exaggerated the possibilities of Colin Kaepernick, making his potential practically mythical. It's important to note that one of the greatest pitfalls of sports bettors is media hype and media in general. We hear news, analysis, speculation, and opinion all day long, all week long, so by the weekend we're taking the poison with the rest of the cult. Andrew Luck could also be the greatest quarterback and so could the kid playing on Lambeau Field before Friday Night's game.
Don't get me wrong. We're picking the Niners. We believe Kaepernick is good at football. He runs well, throws well, and has just the right sized biceps for kissing. My bicep kisses look awkward - too much neck. No, we don't agree with Jaws because hypothetical evaluations like that cannot be disagreed with, so similar to the Like without the Don't Like option on Facebook, we boycott.
What we do think is that Jim Harbaugh has been waiting patiently for a nice home game in late August to unleash his team and show the NFL what it's capable of - at least for a full quarter. I wish I could tell you why this line has shrunken from 5 to 2.5, but I can't. Kaepernick will get limited playing time, but we believe it will be enough.
Let's finish strong, shall we?
Vinny and Marco
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