The Chiefs Got B.J.ed in the End Zone

I once read that as a sports gambler it's better to watch two or three football games closely rather than try to follow the whole schedule each week. Unfortunately, I did neither last night, opting instead for the medicinal effects The Magic School Bus, Busytown Mysteries, and Popsicles on my daughter's painful sounding cough. Fortunately, it was preseason football which is only slightly less enjoyable to watch than The Little League World Series dominating the ESPN channels this month. The only highlight I saw was the game winning touchdown thrown by San Francisco Forty Niners back-up to the back-up to the back-up quarterback...drum roll please...B.J. (always an unfortunate name) Daniels to beat the Kansas City Chiefs and hand us our only loss of the day.

              
"If Colin, Scott, and Colt go down, I'll be ready."

Friday Night's Games: 3-1 ATS
Overall Preseason Record: 5-3 ATS

No time to lollygag, we've got a website to run. Although it's a lot more time consuming than I imagined, the feedback has been exceptionally motivating. Now let's get to those very unpredictable looking Saturday games.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3) over Dallas Cowboys: Remember when the Arizona Cardinals started last season 4-0? Don't worry, nobody else does either. During that run, however, their defense looked off-the-charts good shutting down the likes of the Seahawks, Patriots, and Eagles. They appeared to be a team to reckon with in the NFC West before rattling off nine straight losses en route to a 5-11 season. The Dallas Cowboys, on the other hand, are eternally disappointing their fans of late - coming into the season looking strong and then finding new and exotic was to grab defeat from the gentle grasp of victory. Preseason is a perfect time to practice analyzing lines, and Dallas getting 3 points seems way too attractive to us, which is why we're happily giving them up.

Tennessee Titans (+3) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: AJ Green will be sidelined for this game with a mild hamstring injury. Jake Locker will probably take more snaps than Andy Dalton and with the depth the Titans have at wide receiver in Kendall Wright and Damian Williams they'll be able to put enough points on the board to hold on for the win when the scrubs come in. Besides, my animal communicating, psychic mother-in-law tells me that a light blue team is going to do great things this year. If it's not the Carolina Panthers, then it must be these guys.



NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars: A few weeks ago I was told by a fellow capper that a safe bet in the preseason was the New York Jets to win all their games, arguing that players would play even harder when Geno Smith came in for Mark Sanchez because they're all thirsty for change in New York. Clearly that advice didn't pan out in game 1, but that was Detroit on the road and this in Jacksonville at home. If you've been following along this preseason you've probably noticed that only 5 of 16 home teams won during Week 1. This week, however, the tables have turned with the road team losing 7 of 8 so far this week. With a line under 3, we'll bet on that trend continuing.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3) over Miami Dolphins: With their impressive win last week over the Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak is now a remarkable 11-2 SU in Weeks 1 & 2 of the preseason. With an overall record of 17-12 SU, it appears his model is to try hard to win the first two games, then use the latter two for evaluation purposes. Although the Dolphins have been impressive this preseason and may be a sleeper wild card team in the AFC East, a field goal isn't enough to persuade us to buy.



SAINT LOUIS RAMS (-4) over Green Bay Packers: Honestly, I could waste your time talking preseason stats or the power of Jeff Fisher's mustache, but the truth is this line makes me feel like a stupid little fish in a stupid little pond. Four points is the bait that 83% of the public is biting on. There has to be a better reason than the goose egg Green Bay put up against the Arizona Cardinals last week for the Rams to be giving up four points.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Denver Broncos: A great deal is being said about Pete Carroll's 20-9-1 ATS record in the preseason and almost as much is being said about the Denver Broncos being a shoe-in to represent the AFC in this season's Super Bowl. Therefore, what we have her is a little something called The Hook - that half a point on either side of the field goal or the touchdown that is tempting us towards one side or the other. We'll give the hook to the Broncos fans and watch Seattle roll when John Fox gives the hook to Peyton Manning and all their other starters.



There you have it, folks. It feels great to be inching closer to the real football season, closer to the exhilaration and the agony, the heartache and the irregular heartbeat that comes with 12 hour football marathons.

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As always, thanks for reading.

Vinny

www.thespreadzone.com