Monday Night Football Preview: Eagles, Redskins, Texans, and Chargers

Two of the biggest unanswered questions of the off-season will be answered tonight in the super awesome, season-opening Monday Night double header. The first question, of course, is how will RG3 look with his ACL2.0 in tonight's game against Philadelphia. The other intriguing question that has had analysts talking since he left Oregon for the NFL is what will Chip Kelly's offense look like.



According to Griffin, his knee feels great, he's been practicing at full speed, and he's been ready to go since Project Preseason Drama started a month ago in Washington. “I am not very superstitious,” Griffin added. “But I do walk around the field one time before every game to kind of mark my territory, saying, ‘Within these lines, you control what happens.’” If that's true, then he should definitely be trying some controlled sliding tonight. 

On the other side of the ball, when asked about the Philly offense, starting quarterback Michael Vick said it's faster than anything we've ever seen in the NFL, that when they do it right they get plays off in 8-12 seconds. That's fast. Currently the line has the Redskins -3.5 with the O/U at 53.



The night cap has the two-time defending AFC South Houston Texans visiting  San Diego in Mike McCoy's Chargers coaching debut. Arian Foster has been a question mark during the preseason, as has the ability of the Texans offense to produce effectively without consistent contributions from their running game. San Diego, however, had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year, and protecting Phillip Rivers in the pocket may be too much of a challenge against the likes of JJ Watt and the other talented Texan defenders.

Although our ATS picks for these two games are reserved for Insiders, trying to sell you that package right now would feel a bit like selling snake oil. Feel free to buy the oil, but if you'd like a little time to think about it and still be a daily part of The Spread Zone, we'd like to offer you this deal. So far this week our Over/Under picks have hit 10 of 14 times and we like our chances at the sweep tonight. If you'd like a peek at our O/U's then.

Step 1: Contact Us with an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@thespreadzone.com telling us you'd like to see what we think.

Step 2: Wait anxiously for our return e-mail.

That's it. Join the mailing list and the fun.

Thanks,

Vinny and Marco

AFC South Preview: Over/Under Projections for All Four Teams

Once Is Luck, Twice Is a Pattern

By: Will S., TSZ Guest Writer

Houston Texans – Over/Under- 10.5 Wins

If you are a Houston Texans fan, there is a lot to be excited about in this coming season. Not only are they coming off a season in which they won the AFC South and a playoff game over the Cincinnati Bengals, but they also have the core of their team all returning.

Since former Dallas Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips became the Defensive Coordinator, the Texans have seen a drastic improvement in their defense. Last season they were the seventh best rush defense in the NFL, only giving up 97.5 yards rushing a game. Another reason we have seen a great improvement in the Texan’s defense is the emergence of defensive end J.J. Watt. Watt has grown into one of the most dominant defensive players in the game today. The former Wisconsin Badger had 20.5 sacks in just his second year in the NFL, that’s 15 more sacks than he had his rookie season. If I am any other team in the NFL besides the Texans, I am terrified, because Watt is only TWENTY FOUR years old.  Barring injury, this guy’s only scratching the surface of his potential. Imagine a similar improvement this year. Scary.

What makes the Texans a dangerous team is the balance between their offense and defense. You see it so often that a team will have a great offense, but then their mediocre defense will keep them from becoming a great team. For example, the New Orleans Saints in the years since their Super Bowl title, and also this Texans team before the arrival of Wade Phillips. The 2012 Texans offense, led by Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, were also ranked seventh in the NFL. This balance could prove to the recipe for success in this upcoming season, which is the reason I am suggesting taking the Over 10.5 wins. I think they will end the season 11 and 5, due to a pretty tough schedule, but don’t sleep on this team come playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts – Over/Under- 8.5 Wins

To me, this Over/Under is a no brainer. I think the Colts will definitely get Over 8.5 wins in Andrew Luck’s second NFL season.

Last year, the Indianapolis Colts were the feel good story of the season. Coming off of a 2-14 season, they acquired Andrew Luck as the number one pick in the draft. Although they knew he was very talented, nobody really knew what to expect from him as a rookie. Once the season started, the Colts head coach, Chuck Pagano, was diagnosed with leukemia and had to leave the team to get treatment. Seeing their head coach fighting leukemia and still doing his best to help the team out, the Colts decided that they needed to be “Chuck-Strong.” And they were. An 11 and 5 record grabbed a wild card spot in the playoffs, where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens.

Andrew Luck was phenomenal last season. He threw for 4,374 yards with 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Colts fans would like to see that interceptions number go down a little bit, but think about this - in Peyton Manning’s rookie season with the Colts, he had 28 interceptions. We all know what Manning has turned himself into since a mediocre rookie season.  So there is a lot to be looking forward to for Colts fans with their stud young quarterback.

The Colts’ defense was one of the youngest in the NFL last year and should only get better and better if they can keep this same group together. I look for the defense to be much improved from last season.

After one rough season in 2011, it looks like it’s back to being a perennial playoff team for the Colts. This organization has been very fortunate to see the type of quarterback play they have seen and should not take Andrew Luck for granted like they did with Peyton Manning.

Tennessee Titans—Over/Under- 6.5 Wins

To me, the success of this team completely relies on how Chris Johnson can play. If he can get back to the level he was at back in 2009 when he rushed for over 2,000, this team will without a doubt win at least 7 games. But the last few seasons the Titans have seen their running back’s production go way down. This is a big concern for Tennessee because this is the same guy who was thought of as the best running back in the NFL just 4 seasons ago. I am still a believer in Chris Johnson - he is still one of the top 5 fastest players in the NFL and he can find himself in open space, he will have a big year this year.

Another player I look to have a big year is wide receiver Kendall Wright. The former Baylor Bear star has both world class speed and big play capability. He is great at finding himself behind the secondary for those long 45 yard touchdown plays. He is also great at finding the opening in the zone and has very good hands. Wright - another player I had the privilege of seeing live in college and high school - could develop into an All-Pro receiver in this league.

With that being said, I am going to take the Under 6.5 wins on this one. I think it will be a learning year and the defense will struggle. Johnson will rush for around 1,400 yards, giving fans reason to believe he can get back to an elite level. But it won’t be quite enough for this team to make any noise in the AFC South. But in the 2014-15 season, you just might remember the Titans.

Jacksonville Jaguars—Over/Under- 4.5 Wins

 

This is a tough one. With a young quarterback and a stud receiver, you would expect the future would be bright for the Jaguars. I, however, remain skeptical about Blaine Gabbert. I don’t think the former Missouri Tiger will ever develop into the quarterback that the Jaguars were hoping for. Maybe I am wrong, but from the few times I’ve watched the Jaguars, he’s given me no reason to think otherwise.

Maybe rookie head coach, Gus Bradley, can come in and turn it around for the Jags. He is the type of coach that is always energetic and will demand excellence from this team. He was a good hire for this young Jacksonville squad.

The Jaguars have some weapons on offense. Maurice Jones-Drew has been one of the best running backs in the league for the past 5 or so years. With Justin Blackman going into his second year in the league, this offense could be scary if the ball gets in the right hands. Blackmon’s rookie stats weren’t terrific, picking up 865 yards and only 5 touchdowns, but when I saw Blackmon play live in his last season at Oklahoma State, he was an unbelievably dominating player. Some of the catches he made were just ridiculous - and with 2 or 3 defenders draped all over him. The reason his stats weren’t very impressive is because of the quarterback, so if Gabbert can improve you should see Blackmon’s stats start to rise. I see him tallying 1,100 yards receiving with at least 8 touchdowns in his sophomore season.

      "Trade you this puppy for a win."

I would take the Over 4.5 games on the Jags, but I wouldn’t put too much money on it. I just feel that this team, being in a weak division, can win 5 games being, even though the franchise has only seen 7 wins the past two years combined.

AFC South Projected Final 2013-14 Standings:

Team              W        L

Houston          11        5

Indianapolis     10        6

Tennessee         6       10

Jacksonville       5       11

NFL Week 17 Picks ATS: On the Marco

 Sadly there is no time for lengthy lead-ins or poetically profound metaphors about life and gambling this week. Marco has family obligations and I have a minor surgery that will ensure my family obligations remain at status quo. Translation - holiday vasectomy. My only regret is that my insurance doesn't roll over in June, because I would have loved to join the 25% increase in men who opt for this procedure during March Madness. Too bad my doctor doesn't work on Saturdays - it would have made Sunday football viewing blissfully guilt free. 

In lieu of the norm, let's jump right into a transcript of Marco's notes on this week's games. Keep in mind that there are several playoff scenarios in the NFC yet to be determined, while the AFC will likely have teams like the Colts, Ravens, and Bengals resting up for Wild Card weekend. 

TSZ Welcomes: Our 30th follower. A landmark of sorts. Please join me in welcoming Angel L. to our community. Hope you got here in time for that epic 5-0 Friday Five last week. We're glad you're here.  

LAST WEEK:  10-6 ATS (twice in a row)

SEASON TO DATE: 130-112 ATS

FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS: 5-0 ATS last week, and 32-18 ATS on the season. Now available: http://www.thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/12/friday-five-grand-finale.html

Marco appears to have hit his stride with back-to-back 10-6 ATS weeks. This week, he put a lot of thought into the hidden variables - playoff seeding, resting the wary, deflated losers, vying for draft picks, and so on - and he has put together a rather unorthodox but poignantly accurate list of picks.

NFL Week 17 Picks ATS: The Good, the Bad, and the Ones Nobody Cares About

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 over Baltimore Ravens: Underrated versus overrated. The Bengals will pounce into the playoffs with a statement win against the inconsistent Ravens. 

BUFFALO BILLS -3.5 over New York Jets: Tim Tebow has given up on the Jets, and so should you. C.J. Spiller will win this game all by himself.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4.5 over Houston Texans: Coach Pagano returns to the sideline setting up an emotionally-charged upset of the struggling Texans. Houston has never won in Indy. Yes, that was when Peyton was still in town, but that still gives the Colts a psychological advantage.

ATLANTA FALCONS -0.0 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Coach Mike Smith will not rest his starters, that's what the bye week is for. The Bucs only strength is stopping the run. That won't help against one of the league's best passing attacks.

Philadelphia Eagles +9.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS: We're tired of getting burned by the Giants. Rumor has it Vick may be back at QB for the Eagles which makes this match-up more interesting. Mike will be auditioning for his next job, so he'll play his best. 

Chicago Bears -3.5 over DETROIT LIONS: I know I predict this every week, but Cutler and Marshall will hook up for at least two scores as the Lions secondary isn't stopping anyone lately. Lions keep it close until the end. Look for a trademark pick six for the Bears defense against a late game turnover-prone Matthew Stafford.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -4.5 over Carolina Panthers: Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints players will get up for this game. They want to show Sean Payton why he should choose New Orleans over the Dallas job. 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -0.0 over Cleveland Browns: Coach Tomlin will have his guys playing for pride. Don't be surprised with a blowout victory to end the season as most of the Browns rookies are used to resting for six weeks before a bowl game. 

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 over TENNESSEE TITANS: The Chiefs will secure the first pick in next year's draft by losing to Denver, so the Jags have no reason to tank this game. Honestly, we feel the Jags are the better of these two teams, so take the points and watch Jake Locker throw more interceptions.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5 over Miami Dolphins: The Patriots have never made it to a Super Bowl without a first round bye. This game means a ton to them. Two glaring issues for Miami- they can't defend the pass and they won't be able to run the ball against the stout New England front line. Patriots by at least 17 points.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3.5 over Green Bay Packers: "All Day" Adrian Peterson ran for over 200 yards against GB in their last meeting. Look for the Minnesota defense to step up at home in this "win and get in" game. What  a great story. 

SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS -16.5 over Arizona Cardinals: Report after week 16 loss: "Larry Fitzgerald's Dad finally joins everyone else and gives up on the Cardinals too." This will be a long, ugly day for whatever QB off the street Arizona starts this week. The SF defense will be playing angry after last week's nationally televised embarrassment. Will there be a Smith siting? We hope so. 

DENVER BRONCOS -16.5 over Kansas City Chiefs: "Tank" you very much for blowing us out, Denver. KC secures first pick in the draft and celebrates after the loss.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -0.0 over Oakland Raiders: San Diego lost several key players to injury yet they played better last week. They should make easy work of the lowly Raiders and the Terrelle Pryor Experiment.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10.5 over St. Louis Rams: The Seahawks will cover any spread against any team at home right now. 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3.5 over Dallas Cowboys: Weekend weather forecast shows snow. Cold weather favors the run game. Alfred Morris and RG3 lead the Skins to a convincing victory to win the NFC East. This is the game of the week.

Enjoy the heck out of the last week of 2012. Stay tuned for our Friday Five as we look to build on our impressive 5-0 week. 

Vinny and Marco

PS I'll try to add some images tomorrow as I'm sitting on the couch recovering. 

Daily Reminders

#1. Coffee Donations: If you appreciate what we're doing here, feel free to buy us a cup of coffee anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep this thing going. Many thanks to those who have donated. It has felt like a warm, delicious compliment every time. Please send us a note, too, so we can make sure to thank you in the next post.

#2. Follow us on Twitter @vinnyandmarco. Spend weekends with Marco in the Twittersphere or feel free to just e-mail us anytime atvinnyandmarco@gmail.com.

Week 14 Monday Morning Quarterback

Ahhh, the swashbuckling adventures upon the high seas of gambling. Some weeks it feels like a luxurious Caribbean cruise - every day an island paradise, every game a cool, coastal breeze on a sunny afternoon. Other weeks, like the last two, it feels like we simply traded seats on the Titanic. Our mantra this morning - based in the spiritual principal of compassion - is, "At least we're not the Arizona Cardinals."

                                    

One of the most difficult things for athletes, coaches, and novice Internet blogging NFL handicappers to do is face the media after a tough loss. Here's a piece of the transcript from TSZ's Sunday night press conference.

"First of all, I don't want to take anything away from Vegas - their a great team and they played another good game this weekend. They are exactly who we thought they were - multi-billionaire royalty living monarchistic lives on capitalistic values. I don't want to minimize their success, but I'm pretty sure that, unlike Vinny's mother-in-law, their psychics actually have magical powers."
                                 
Wouldn't it be a great sub-plot if we found out the Roger Goodell owns a share of the Bellagio? Or that there really are psychics working out in the dessert, which is why Vegas can plant lines like Atlanta (-3.5) in Carolina or see that San Diego is going to win in Pittsburgh for the FIRST TIME IN REGULAR SEASON HISTORY. At this rate we might have to rename TSZ TheCoinFlip.com or RowShamBow.org and make it a not for profit, because that's certainly what it's been lately.

But gambling is a fool's game, and Marco and I are two of the most foolish guys you'll ever meet. Stuart Scott once said during an episode of ESPN's failed reality show Dream Job, "Character is defined by who you are when you're alone." He said this to a young man who had screwed up his audition and was swearing uncontrollably while throwing chairs and tables around a green room he assumed was camera free.

At TSZ, where we're always standing in front of the bright lights of the bloggosphere, we believe that regardless of how the mule got into the ditch, character is defined by how you get it out. When people say, "Shitty weekend," we say, "Happy Monday." And when they say, "You guys are losers," we say, "Pre-Winners." The best thing about gamblers, ourselves included, is their short-term memories and their what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitudes. Remember how we nailed that back door cover in Green Bay last night? We do.

So, yes, we received some glimpses of what hate mail might look like, mostly just soft-core emotional porn from self-loathing gamblers, but it is in the face of such adversity that Marco and I embrace the gambling philosophy of Rita Mae Brown who - in her nationally acclaimed "The Four Agreements of Gambling" - wrote, "Leroy bet me I couldn't find a pot of gold at the end, and I told him that was a stupid bet because the rainbow was enough."

What the F is that supposed to mean? Exactly. And you're welcome.

What would The Spread Zone be if not a place for us to rejoice, be it as kings or as paupers, and for just a brief moment forget about the rest of the world and focus on the upcoming NFL schedule. Without humor, without humility, and without honesty, TSZ would be almost as much fun as the following movies without violence. So if you bet on Atlanta or Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh or any other game that made you say, "Whaaaaaaat?" take a moment to enjoy this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIa-M5qoOHE.

See you on Wednesday,

Vinny and Marco

Thursday Thirty-Two? WTF?

THURSDAY THREE LAST WEEK: 1-2 ATS

SEASON TO DATE: 4-2 ATS

Let me just start by saying - this football season has been a blast. Marco and I both look forward to waking up every morning, checking the TSZ Inbox, and talking shop with our new friends from around the globe. When we do well, our readers rejoice and applaud us. When we struggle, they've been there with a kind words of support and encouragement. As the weeks unfold, we are seeing a clearer vision of what TSZ is: A warm and cozy place for like-minded, sports fanatic, gamblers to come and celebrate their victories or curl up in the fetal position and find comfort in defeat.

What an amazing adventure in Internet Sports Gamblogging  this has become. Who knows where TSZ is heading - but for now it's another reminder that the significance of the journey far exceeds the destination. Speaking of which, we have a couple of new followers who have decided to officially join TSZ's community.

TSZ Warmly Welcomes: Noah G. from NorCal I'd like to introduce you to Frank S. (I'm assuming that's Frank the Tank) from Raleigh, North Carolina. Even though it's disturbing to us how many New York Giants fans there are in the world (still not over the Kyle Williams fumble last January), we're glad you're both here and appreciate your input below.

Now to the business side of things.

As the early submissions trickled in Tuesday afternoon and almost every team in the NFL was represented, Marco and I started to have some concerns about the future of our Thursday Three. We considered turning it into a contest, weeding out the Chiefs, Raiders, and Cardinals fans, and offering the first ever TSZ t-shirt to the reader with the best record come playoff time. Then we remembered we don't have t-shirts, and better yet our regular, classy, top shelf gamblers started sending in their picks. Now we have three, clear-cut winners, and an honorable mention or two.

On the topic of t-shirts, however, if any of our readers have more artistic talent than Marco or me - i.e. stick figures with googly eyes - send us an idea for a TSZ logo. If we like it, we'll use it when we get big enough to merchandise. We can't offer you anything return except the aforementioned first t-shirt ever - hand-crafted by yours truly - but if you have the time and want to share in the creative process that is building this fine community of ours, send us some artwork to vinnyandmarco@gmail.com.

Now let's get to that Thursday Three already. We had more submissions than ever this week, and we predict that will bode well for the results - even though #3 will not only be missing from our Friday Five but is also absent on our Wednesday Sixteen. From least to most confident, here they are.

Week 13 Thursday Three: TSZ Fan Picks

#3. New York Giants (-2.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: We're glad we have independent minded gamblers who are willing to go against TSZ picks and willingly lose their money.

-- The NYG are getting healthy in their secondary, which builds confidence up front on the D-line!  The D-line was acting like it was the Super Bowl against the Patriots last week.  RGIII is playing out of his mind, but the Giants on the road will be too much! 

Frank the Tank

Raleigh, NC

New York Giants Fan

-- The Giants had their bye week and the end of the season is near. That means Eli and company are in  championship form and aim to set pace for defending their title. They looked awesome last

week on defense and that will expose the rookie-ness of QB RG3 (who will be basking in his win over the leaderless Cowboys). Giants by a TD.

Texas Todd

Broncos Fan

-- If you can get a parlay on a BobG3 concussion and three cracked ribs, I would take it.

Arty Z.

Austin, TX 

Cleveland Browns Fan

#2. New England Patriots (-7.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: What is up with this line? Did Chad Henne go back to the Dolphins?

-- Yeah the Fins looked good last week against Seattle. But so do most teams when Seattle is on the road. Patriots had a bye week and scrimmaged a local community college team in Jersey on Thursday, so I feel like they will be prepared to wreak havoc down in Miami. Tannenhill has come back down to earth in recent weeks and we have seen that the Pats can make rookie QBs look very unLUCKy. So patriots should be able to at least win by 10 this week as Brady and his Uggs improve their MVP chances. 

Luis G.

Long Island, New York

Steelers Fan

-- Bill Belichick is a terrible human being. He seems to take pleasure in not only beating teams but humiliating them. While this may make him a terrible sportsmen he is a gamblers best friend and the Patriot's are a spread covering machine. Brief side note, at $7.5 million per year you think he would lose the hoodie from the homeless Rocky Balboa collection.

Jimmy the Weasel

Rams Fan

#1. Houston Texans (-5.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS: Two-thirds of the submissions included the Texans, so nice going TSZ readers.

--Who plays for the Titans? I had to look it up. Hasslebeck..... i thought he opened a car dealership in AZ 2 years ago. Chris Johnson can run but not on Houston. Unless it is to the nearest strip club and then he is All-World. Nate Washington is their leading receiver. Have you heard of him? Me neither.

Noah G.
Northern California
New York Giants Fan

--Tenn just lost to Jacksonville. Houston has had 9 days off after winning two OT games in less than 5 days. A rested Texan team that wants the number one seed claims victory early and

cruises to a two TD win.

Texas Todd

Broncos Fan

-- The line in Australia is -6.5 & I'm still taking them.  I'm selecting this game purely on form and games won and lost 10-1 to titans 4-7. I'm surprised the line isn't greater. Texans are my tip for Super Bowl :)

John

Melbourne, Australia

New York Giants Fan

-- The Weasel see's the 5th ranked Texans run offense doing bad things to the 27th ranked run defense of the Titans. It's no coincidence that 98% of the betting populous are taking the Texans and giving the points. Stats and psychology can't be wrong.

Jimmy the Weasel
Rams Fan, but not when gambling


HONORABLE MENTION: New Orleans, Jacksonville, and Chicago

Final Thursday Three TSZ Rankings for Week 13

1. Houston Texans (12)
2. New England Patriots (8)
3. New York Giants (7)
4. New Orleans Saints (5)
    Jacksonville Jaguars (5)
5. Chicago Bears (4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (3)
7. Cincinnati Bengals (2)
    Dallas Cowboys (2)
    Baltimore Ravens (2)

*First place votes get 3 points, second place 2, third place 1.

If you use our fan picks, keep in mind the sample size is still pretty small. Our hope is that as it grows, we'll have a better sense of what a solid bet is according to the TSZ fan base. Thank you all for participating. We try to include everyone if you chose one of the Thursday Three, but if you didn't, try again next week. Picks across the board were solid - I was obviously joking about the Raiders and Chiefs fans - they only exist in Marco's house.

Good luck, fellow gamblers.

May the Spread Be with You,

Vinny and Marco

#1. Coffee Donations are Much Appreiated: Feel free to buy us a cup of Joe anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep The Spread Zone running, and we'd love to build this into more than just a hobby. If you'd rather wait and see how you do with our picks, that's fine. If you appreciate what we're doing regardless of the outcome, you can donate anytime. Thanks again to everyone who has done so already. It feels like a warm, delicious compliment every time.

#2. Follow us on Twitter @vinnyandmarco. Shoot the S-word with Marco while you're riding the gambling roller coaster.

#3. Now that we have the support and appreciation of fellow handicappers, we feel like The Spread Zone has as much potential as any free gambling website out there. We always appreciate feedback and suggestions. Like my favorite baseball team likes to say, "Together We're Giant." 

Week 12 Picks ATS: Turkey Day Surprise

LAST WEEK: 8-6 ATS - Sixth straight week above .500

SEASON TO DATE: 90-71 ATS

THURSDAY THREE FAN PICKS: 3-0 ATS - smartest fans on the Inter-Web

FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS: 4-1 ATS last week, 19-7 ATS on the season

Okay, enough shameless self-promotion. Gambling is a confidence game, and I just needed to take a moment to get us all geeked up for this coming week.

Good morning TSZ readers. What a terrific week to be a football fan. Like Lebron James once said, "Not one, not two, not three..." - oh wait, actually it is three - count 'em three Thursday football games to go with all the delicious food, the variety of beverages, and the family experiences that probably range anywhere from fun and relaxing to awkward and uncomfortable. Hopefully there's a big screen TV available if it's the latter, but either way - as usual - we have gambling to make the seasonal joy all that much better while simultaneously ameliorating the discomfort of social family obligations.

Marco and I are changing the format this week because of the larger Thursday schedule. We'll be focusing on the Turkey Day games this morning and submitting the rest of our Week 12 Picks tomorrow evening. We know we've been getting them in by Wednesday most weeks and we have most of the picks ready if you need them, we'd just like a little extra time to add the stuffing and the gravy. We also have two or three games we're watching line movement on, which is adding to the delay. If you absolutely need the picks today and will take into consideration that a couple of them may change by tomorrow, feel free to shoot us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com and we'll send you our preliminary results without all the verbiage that usually comes with them.

For now, however, let's talk Thanksgiving Day Football. HOME TEAM in CAPS with our picks in bold.

DETROIT LIONS (+3.5) over Houston Texans: WTF? Seriously? The Detroit Lions over the Houston Texans? Did Vinny fall off the wagon? Is Marco dating that girl from Michigan again? Is this still The Spread Zone I've grown to love? The answers are yes, yes, maybe, yes, and we hope so.

Breaking News: Titus Young suspended. We thought about it, but this does not change our pick. Here's a little blurb on replacement WR Mike Thomas from Wikipedia

Thomas was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the fourth round of the 2009 NFL Draft. As a rookie he started four of the 14 games in which he played, and had 48 receptions for 453 yards and a touchdown. His 48 receptions were tied with Michael Crabtree for fourth among all rookies.^[2]

A key play of his career was in a 2010 Week 10 game against the Texans. With just 3 seconds remaining in regulation and the game tied at 24, QB David Garrard launched a "Hail Mary" pass from the 50-yard line intended for Mike Sims-Walker. The ball was batted down at the goal line by Texans DB Glover Quin, and then hit Thomas in the chest. Thomas was able to grab the ball next to his left knee before it hit the ground, and he took a step forward into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown.^[3]

On the surface it looks like a bold/stupid pick to take the inconsistent Lions against the best team in football, but Marco read some articles which, along with the early line movement, convinced us that Vegas believes the Lions will win. Sure, CB Jonathan Joseph with safety help can stop Calvin Johnson, but WR Ryan Broyles along with TE Brandon Pettigrew can help Detroit capitalize on the struggling Texans secondary. The Lions have proven they can stop the run, so without Arian Foster having his normal impact, Houston will look like a pumpkin pie without whipped cream. Boring. 

I wish we had stats to show you how dominant Detroit has been on Thanksgiving Day, but c'mon we all know what Detroit was until two years ago. You might want to stay away from this game, because we think Houston is in for a Texas-sized surprise.

                  

Washington Redskins (+3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS: Anyone else think Cowboys versus Indians is a little cliche for Thanksgiving football? Well, let's face it - the fact that we still have mascots that reference the Native Americans (Braves, Redskins, Seminoles) is a little weird. What isn't weird is the fact that Marco and I have stopped trusting the Dallas Cowboys. Every week we have a conversation that goes something like this, "They're so talented. They're bound to have a break-out game." Then we bet on them and they fail to cover. Or we don't and they do. 

That being said, we're confident if the Washington Redskins this week for a variety of reasons. First of all, RG3 steps up in nationally televised games, while Romo cracks under the pressure. Look for Griffin and Albert Morris to run all over Dallas's pedestrian rush defense. Washington will control this game with time of possession and by converting timely first downs. The Cowboys, as usual, will settle for field goals. Ultimately, the Skins will win this game outright or lose by just one of said Dan Bailey FGs.

If you want some facts to go with our opinions, the Redskins last five meetings with the Cowboys in Dallas have been decided by a microscopic average of 2.6 points, with the highest margin of 5 dating all the way back to 2007.  They play close games, and the Redskins are 5-0 ATS in those trips, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against the Cowboys. Yes, the Cowboys have covered about two-thirds of their annual Turkey Day games, but this Dallas team's defensive specialty is stopping the pass while Washington not only boasts the second ranked rushing attack in the NFL, but also has one of the best running QBs. The nail in the coffin - Dallas is 2-9 ATS in their last eleven against division foes, while the 'Skins are 8-2 ATS.

                                     

New England Patriots (-6.5) over NEW YORK JETS: This line took a significant hit with Gronkowski going down, but no need to overreact as it sounds like TE Aaron Hernandez, who is actually a much more versatile player, is returning this week. We had a moment where we bought into the Jets 3-point overtime loss to the Patriots in New England five weeks ago. Then we saw that the Patriots have outscored their opponents 141-62 since that game while the Jets have lost to Seattle and Miami before scratching out a defensive win against the inconsistent Rams last week. Don't be a prisoner of that moment. The Pats offense won't miss a beat and let's face it, the Jets still suck. New England wins by at least a touchdown.

The numbers also support this pick with New England going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against the Jets and 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 road games period. If you want a sure bet on this game, take the OVER which the Pats have hit 15 of their last 16 division games. 

                                     
      Either one of these guys could beat the Jets right now

So there you have it, TSZ readers. Our bold and beautiful Thanksgiving Day picks. Don't forget to get your Thursday Three confidence picks into us this evening, so we can build upon the success of last week. Don't worry if you don't agree with us - differences when acknowledged and appreciated will ultimately make us all stronger.

Happy Betting and Happy Thanksgiving. We'll see you here tomorrow.

Vinny and Marco

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