NFL Week 17 Picks ATS: On the Marco

 Sadly there is no time for lengthy lead-ins or poetically profound metaphors about life and gambling this week. Marco has family obligations and I have a minor surgery that will ensure my family obligations remain at status quo. Translation - holiday vasectomy. My only regret is that my insurance doesn't roll over in June, because I would have loved to join the 25% increase in men who opt for this procedure during March Madness. Too bad my doctor doesn't work on Saturdays - it would have made Sunday football viewing blissfully guilt free. 

In lieu of the norm, let's jump right into a transcript of Marco's notes on this week's games. Keep in mind that there are several playoff scenarios in the NFC yet to be determined, while the AFC will likely have teams like the Colts, Ravens, and Bengals resting up for Wild Card weekend. 

TSZ Welcomes: Our 30th follower. A landmark of sorts. Please join me in welcoming Angel L. to our community. Hope you got here in time for that epic 5-0 Friday Five last week. We're glad you're here.  

LAST WEEK:  10-6 ATS (twice in a row)

SEASON TO DATE: 130-112 ATS

FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS: 5-0 ATS last week, and 32-18 ATS on the season. Now available: http://www.thespreadzone.blogspot.com/2012/12/friday-five-grand-finale.html

Marco appears to have hit his stride with back-to-back 10-6 ATS weeks. This week, he put a lot of thought into the hidden variables - playoff seeding, resting the wary, deflated losers, vying for draft picks, and so on - and he has put together a rather unorthodox but poignantly accurate list of picks.

NFL Week 17 Picks ATS: The Good, the Bad, and the Ones Nobody Cares About

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 over Baltimore Ravens: Underrated versus overrated. The Bengals will pounce into the playoffs with a statement win against the inconsistent Ravens. 

BUFFALO BILLS -3.5 over New York Jets: Tim Tebow has given up on the Jets, and so should you. C.J. Spiller will win this game all by himself.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4.5 over Houston Texans: Coach Pagano returns to the sideline setting up an emotionally-charged upset of the struggling Texans. Houston has never won in Indy. Yes, that was when Peyton was still in town, but that still gives the Colts a psychological advantage.

ATLANTA FALCONS -0.0 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Coach Mike Smith will not rest his starters, that's what the bye week is for. The Bucs only strength is stopping the run. That won't help against one of the league's best passing attacks.

Philadelphia Eagles +9.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS: We're tired of getting burned by the Giants. Rumor has it Vick may be back at QB for the Eagles which makes this match-up more interesting. Mike will be auditioning for his next job, so he'll play his best. 

Chicago Bears -3.5 over DETROIT LIONS: I know I predict this every week, but Cutler and Marshall will hook up for at least two scores as the Lions secondary isn't stopping anyone lately. Lions keep it close until the end. Look for a trademark pick six for the Bears defense against a late game turnover-prone Matthew Stafford.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -4.5 over Carolina Panthers: Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints players will get up for this game. They want to show Sean Payton why he should choose New Orleans over the Dallas job. 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -0.0 over Cleveland Browns: Coach Tomlin will have his guys playing for pride. Don't be surprised with a blowout victory to end the season as most of the Browns rookies are used to resting for six weeks before a bowl game. 

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 over TENNESSEE TITANS: The Chiefs will secure the first pick in next year's draft by losing to Denver, so the Jags have no reason to tank this game. Honestly, we feel the Jags are the better of these two teams, so take the points and watch Jake Locker throw more interceptions.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5 over Miami Dolphins: The Patriots have never made it to a Super Bowl without a first round bye. This game means a ton to them. Two glaring issues for Miami- they can't defend the pass and they won't be able to run the ball against the stout New England front line. Patriots by at least 17 points.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3.5 over Green Bay Packers: "All Day" Adrian Peterson ran for over 200 yards against GB in their last meeting. Look for the Minnesota defense to step up at home in this "win and get in" game. What  a great story. 

SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS -16.5 over Arizona Cardinals: Report after week 16 loss: "Larry Fitzgerald's Dad finally joins everyone else and gives up on the Cardinals too." This will be a long, ugly day for whatever QB off the street Arizona starts this week. The SF defense will be playing angry after last week's nationally televised embarrassment. Will there be a Smith siting? We hope so. 

DENVER BRONCOS -16.5 over Kansas City Chiefs: "Tank" you very much for blowing us out, Denver. KC secures first pick in the draft and celebrates after the loss.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -0.0 over Oakland Raiders: San Diego lost several key players to injury yet they played better last week. They should make easy work of the lowly Raiders and the Terrelle Pryor Experiment.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10.5 over St. Louis Rams: The Seahawks will cover any spread against any team at home right now. 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3.5 over Dallas Cowboys: Weekend weather forecast shows snow. Cold weather favors the run game. Alfred Morris and RG3 lead the Skins to a convincing victory to win the NFC East. This is the game of the week.

Enjoy the heck out of the last week of 2012. Stay tuned for our Friday Five as we look to build on our impressive 5-0 week. 

Vinny and Marco

PS I'll try to add some images tomorrow as I'm sitting on the couch recovering. 

Daily Reminders

#1. Coffee Donations: If you appreciate what we're doing here, feel free to buy us a cup of coffee anytime - top right of the page. It takes a lot of caffeine to keep this thing going. Many thanks to those who have donated. It has felt like a warm, delicious compliment every time. Please send us a note, too, so we can make sure to thank you in the next post.

#2. Follow us on Twitter @vinnyandmarco. Spend weekends with Marco in the Twittersphere or feel free to just e-mail us anytime atvinnyandmarco@gmail.com.

NFL Week 8 Picks ATS: Underdogs go 8-0 ATS on Thursdays

LAST WEEK: 8-5 ATS

SEASON TO DATE: 56-48 ATS (roughly 54%)

FRIDAY LOCKS: 4-1 ATS in our inaugural week


On the surface, our All Favorites Picks last week may have appeared lazy or thoughtless, but had it not been for the two Bay Area teams (which we love and are grateful they won) blowing their covers by mere half points, we'd be basking in the glow of a 10-3 ATS week. As it is, we'll take an 8-5 week all the way to the bank. I guess when you're gambling or running for presidency, 54% is all you need to keep on playing. Less than that, however, and you might need a cousin who's a pit boss or a brother who's a governor.

Even better than that was our very first Friday Five in which we went 4-1 ATS no thanks again to the Oakland Raiders. More important than our continued success at marginally picking the correct teams ATS, is our hope that we're giving fellow gamblers a resource with which they can cultivate their own illusory belief that there is a time-tested, proven system for winning. Remember: You can't, but we can. There may not be an "I" in team, but there is an "US" in ambiguous. You know what I mean?

If you do, then you should really stop gambling.

Now, let's move on to our picks. If you're like me, then you have both your fantasy quarterbacks on a bye week and you're looking at picking up Christian Ponder or Josh Freeman off the waivers to start tomorrow night. What better place to start our Week 8 Picks ATS than what has now become the traditional Thursday Night Football game:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Everyone talks about how hard it is to win in the Metrodome, but over the last 20 games, the Vikings are only 9-11 SU and 11-8-1 ATS. The Bucs, on the other hand, are spread covering fools at 4-2 ATS this year, including both of their losses. Look for Josh Freeman to build on his 420 yard performance last week against the Saints as Tampa Bay pulls out the cover and the upset. Can you tell who I picked up for my fantasy team? Until a favorite wins the Thursday night game, we're sticking with the dogs who have run their total up to 7-0 ATS.

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) over CHICAGO BEARS: The Carolina Panthers fired GM Marty Hurney this week after a 1-5 start, and franchise QB Cam Newton appeared frustrated and defeated in his post-game press conference on Sunday. The Bears, on the other hand, dominated the Detroit Lions Monday Night, but it was primarily their defense again that was so impressive. Chicago is 7-3 SU in their last 10 at home, but only 5-4-1 ATS. On paper, this game should be all Chicago, but we expect the Panthers to respond to front office changes with enthusiasm and energy on the field. Will they win? Probably not, but they'll lose by less than seven.


                                      
                           Pouty Smurf Says "Set Newton Free"


San Diego Chargers (-2.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: The Chargers score more (24.7 to 21.0) and give up fewer points (22.8 to 25.7) than the Browns. Cleveland's youthful core is gaining experience and improving each week and although they are 1-6 SU, they are 3-3-1 ATS, including 2-1 at home. San Diego, however, is a better team with veteran leaders. Plus, they're coming off a bye week. They should be embarrassed by their performance two Mondays ago when they gave up a 24-0 half time lead in a loss to the Denver Broncos and will be playing to make up a game for the rest of the year.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) over Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are 6-0 coming into this game, but Andy Reid is 13-0 coming off a bye week. The Eagles fired their defensive coordinator last week and will be out to prove they made the right decision. The Eagles are inconsistent, but have found ways to win this year regardless. Vick will minimize his mistakes this week and Philly will hand Atlanta its first loss of the season in the Battle of the Birds.

                         

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS: This game is essentially a pick 'em, so we're taking the Dolphins coming off the bye against the Jets coming off an impressive road loss to the New England Patriots last week. The Dolphins will be answering the Rust vs Rest question with an affirmative "Rest, thank you very much," will be answering questions about their offense again. The Jets are 12-6-2 ATS in their last 20 against Miami, but only 4-4-2 at home. We see Miami covering with a win in New York.

DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) over Seattle Seahawks: Remember when they used to call it the NFC Worst? Now the West hosts four of the top ten defenses in the NFL with only the St. Louis Rams giving up more than 20 points (20.1) per game. The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, have plummeted down the ranks, giviing up more than 100 YPG on the ground.This week, however, they are essentially playing to save their season.  Marshawn Lynch will get his Skittles on the ground, but Megatron will finally have a the big game we've been waiting for and Matthew Stafford fantasy owners will be sorry they benched him this week. Lions win big.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars: This line has moved a lot since it opened, but we don't really care as long as it's south of two touchdowns. MJD is out and Gabbart has a torn labrum, which essentially eliminates their rushing and passing games. Aaron Rogers, however, is finding his stride as the most dominant quarterback in the NFL. The weather, the defense, and the fans at Lambeau will leave the Jags feeling very homesick by the end of the half.

                                

New England Patriots (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams: That's right. No CAPS, because this game is taking place in Old England, which means there will either be a lot of Patriot fans or Patriot haters depending on how they feel about the American Revolution. We figure the farther history gets away from us, the more likely people across the pond will just love the word England no matter what comes before it. Tom Brady is considered a prince over their and will likely be knighted in a halftime ceremony after throwing four TDs in after building an insurmountable (to a Rams offense) lead. We don't have significant ATS stats for this one, we're just taking the less jet-lagged Pats coming off a shorter flight.

Washington Redskins (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Upset alert. RG3 almost Eli Manninged the New York Giants last week. Unfortunately, the real Slim Shady played for the G-Men and hit a game-winning TD to Victor Cruz before some of us had time to switch over and watch the end of what promised to be an exciting game. The Steelers, who still find ways to win, just don't look as foreboding as they have in the past. Grab Santana Moss off waivers, start RG3, and watch another victory in the evolution of one of the young studs in the NFL. Pittsburgh will see a five-game home winning streak come to an end (3-2 ATS) as Washington not only covers, but wins this game.

                             

TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Had Jake Locker been given the nod to start, we'd be taking the Colts. Matt Hasselbeck, however, is inspiring a potential quarterback controversy in Tennessee  and Chris Johnson is coming off his best game of the year. Even though Tennessee lost a lot of games when Peyton Manning was in town, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20 against Indy, they covered half of those games and were 6-4 ATS at home. The Colts will match up well with the Titans, but a late mistake by rookie QB Andrew Luck will seal the win and the cover for Tennessee.

Oakland Raiders (+1.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Does a bye week really help a bad team get better? We don't think so. The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Oakland, while the Raiders are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 on the road. The Raiders are also coming off an emotional win against Jacksonville last week, which should give them some momentum. In a game of field goals, we'll take Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski any day.

DALLAS COWBOYS (+1.5) over New York Giants: Nobody is giving Dallas a chance in this game. With Eli coming off another Eli being Eli performance and Dallas continuing its gradual climb towards mediocrity, the majority of bets are being placed on the Giants. We don't have stats or even very good reasons to take the 'Boys this week, except that their secondary gives up the third fewest yards in the NFL. Do we think Manning is going to throw for 187 (Dallas's defensive average)? No, but we think he'll be contained, frustrated, and ultimately lose in a letdown game on the road.

                                

DENVER BRONCOS (-5.5) over New Orleans Saints: Fresh off his seven-week bounty-related suspension, New Orleans Saints coach Joe Vitt is back with the team and ready to go. Unfortunately, he doesn't play defense. Neither do the Broncos in the first half of games, so this one is probably going way OVER if you play that kind of action. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees will have a shoot-out for the ages - until the third quarter when the Denver D steps up just enough for Denver to win by a touchdown.

San Francisco Forty Niners (-6.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: Ranked third and fourth in points allowed, this figures to be a field position chess game. We're surprised the Forty Niners are getting so many points on the road against a team that has played close games all year, but we appreciate the challenge. Our Arizona Cardinals Insider hates John Skelton, and last week's pick six against the Vikings showed us why. Bettors will be reticent to take the Niners after last week's incident against Seattle, but look for San Francisco to score and leave points on the board this week. Niners by ten.

So there you have it, fellow gamblers. A much more balanced week with 6 dogs, 8 favorites, and a 6-7 home-road split not including the road-road game in London.

Good luck out there, and check out our second Friday Five coming soon.

Vinny and Marco