NBA Picks: Nets vs Heat ATS - 5/6/14

Round 2 of the 2014 NBA playoffs began much like both Round 1 did with an even split. We hate being average, but after the past three days .500 feels like a winning streak. Now let's see if we can actually string a couple of victories in a row together. Because there are so few games and because we love numbers, and even though we were a god-awful 0-4 on the OVER/UNDERs in the first round, we're going to roll the dice on both ATS picks and totals. Please remember that handicapping sports is a little bit like trying to be psychic - we use personalities, past behaviors, and expectations to forecast an unpredictable future. Here goes.

NBA Playoffs to Date: 25-27 ATS

Round 2 Record: 1-1 ATS; 1-1 O/U

Top Confidence Picks: 8-7 ATS - this is where we'd really like some separation.

Brooklyn Nets (+7.5) over MIAMI HEAT: The Brooklyn Nets were one of the hottest teams in the NBA the second half this year, and on Sunday they proved they can win tough games on the road when they finished off the Toronto Raptors in a tough, up-and-down seven game series. Now they get the defending champs, a team they swept during the regular season. Make no mistake, the post-season is different. The compelling stats to us are the fact that the Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 visits to South Beach, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when playing on 1 day of rest. Maybe down time isn't good for old people. Idle hands and all that crap. On top of all that, Paul Pierce led teams own a 32-28 SU record against Lebron teams (maybe a bunch of those came in Cleveland) and the road team in this series is 21-10 ATS in the last 31. We think this guy will be the difference in this series. And by difference we mean the Nets lose in 5 but cover every game.



SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-6.5) over Portland Trailblazers: I don't know if the playoffs count when applying stats like this one, but the Blazers are 13-5 ATS this season when avenging a loss and the last time these two teams hooked up the Spurs beat them by 13. The season series split 2-2 and both teams managed victories on the road. This shapes up to be an interesting series. Surprisingly, Portland and Brooklyn are getting close to 60% of the action, which is why I'm calling a last minute audible on this game and giving up the points at home with the Spurs.


     "Back off Side Show Bob."

Top Confidence Pick: Neither really, but if forced to choose I'd probably take the Nets (+7.5).

Just for fun: Nets (+7.5)/UNDER 192 /Spurs (-6.5)/OVER 206.5

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

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