Top Confidence Picks: 10-10-1 ATS
2014 Overall NBA Playoff Record: 31-32-1 ATS
What a shock - dead even again. We are the epitome of the average gambler. We get excited about wins, devastated by losses, feel like big winners, big losers, and all the while we're breaking even and losing more and more in juice. Had we been betting at a casino for the past three weeks, we would have easily earned ourselves a sponsorship plaque above a urinal...handle. Not the whole thing - porcelain ain't cheap.
Now let's see if we can't make a couple of picks not worth flushing in tonight's Game 4's between the Heat/Nets and the Spurs/Trailblazers. Both of last year's NBA finalists look to return home with commanding 3-1 leads.
BROOKLYN NETS (+2.5) over Miami Heat: It just seems like smart money to take the defending champs, even though they've struggled in Brooklyn of late, going 1-4 ATS in their last five trips. But you know what - we're sucking anyways, so I'm just going to start picking in hopes of influencing the karmic drama. Nobody wants to see this series end in five, nor do they want to see the Spurs below finish Rip City off in four. Although the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games playing on 1 days rest. In addition to all those numbers, the home team is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 between these teams and the OVER is an astounding 19-6-1 in the last 26. Miami is currently getting 78% of the early action on this game and yet the line hasn't budged, so we say take the points and the OVER and Brooklyn comes out with a loose, nothing-to-lose attitude and sends this thing back to Miami knotted at two with an overtime win.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS (+3.5) over San Antonio Spurs: There's no good reason to back Portland here except for the fact that there's a human tendency to let down just a little bit when you're up 3-0 and owning a team on both ends of the floor. The Blazers have no chance of winning this series, but they'll be damned if they're going to lose it at home. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in the past 5 meetings, are getting nearly 60% of the action tonight, and although we won't be confident in either one of these games, we'll take the grown, pride-filled men in both to defend home court. Take the points and watch another barn-burner.
Top Confidence Pick: We like Brooklyn to surprise the Heat early and hold on for dear life late.
May the Spreads Be With You All,
Vinny and Marco
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