MaChez Says: NFL: Five Week 2 Picks & Predictions

Five Solid NFL Week 2 Picks and Predictions 

By MaChez, TSZ Expert

For those two of you who read my first “MaChez Says” article, you know we didn’t do too well (0-5).  But, the joke’s on you.  Vinny actually asked me to write an article highlighting the risks of sports betting and it went exactly as planned.  Suckers. Despite hours of research and confirmation in my thinking from other sources, all five of my picks (which were essentially 50-50 picks) were wrong, just like I wanted them to be.  Perfect.

Now what are the odds of getting five 50% predictions wrong? 1/32 or 3.125%. Pretty small, I know.  The chances of that happening (and then going 4-11-1 ATS) are so unlikely, it’s good we got it out of the way early, right? Yes, true, BUT it's just as likely we’ll go 5-0: 3.125%.  And that’s how sports betting goes.  You will have days when you win them all and other days when you don’t win any.  Some days you’ll go 4-1 or 1-4 (15.625% each), and more likely than not you’ll go 3-2 or 2-3 (31.25%).

In the end you’ll likely come out somewhere around 50% winning percentage.  You need 53% to make a profit on standard -110 odds and if you’re sitting up at 60% you’re doing really well.  Which just makes Vinny & Marco’s 65% win rate last year on their Friday Five all the more impressive.  So yes, Week 1 of the NFL didn’t go as well as we all would have hoped.  But be smart, stick with TSZ, bet what you can afford, and it’ll be a good season.

MaChez Says Week 2 Picks:

1. Packers/Redskins Over 50.5 (-108 @ 5Dimes)

2. Denver Broncos (-4) over New York Giants (-105 @ 5Dimes)

3. Teaser Sides 6 Points: New Orleans (+3) and Chicago (+.5)

4. Denver/New York Giants Over 55 (-102 @ 5Dimes)

5. Green Bay Packers (-7) over Washington Redskins (-114 @ 5Dimes)

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants Picks 'n Predictions

After a crazy second half in Week 1, the Broncos and Peyton Manning are being rewarded as 4.5 point favorites in New York.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

In what should be the best of today's late games, we've got Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos traveling to face his younger brother Eli and the New York Giants.  The Aw Shucks Golly Bowl, the Football on Your Phone Bowl, the Manning Bowl III.  Call it what you’d like - it’s The Spread Zone Late Game of the Week (TSZLGOTW)!

For the third time in their careers, and likely the last save a possible Super Bowl match-up, Elisha Archibald Manning’s two youngest boys will lead their respective teams into battle against each other.  Eli, with his typical boyish swag described the game and facing his brother as "neat" but history has proven to be a little more dirty for him and the Giants.  In the first match-up in 2006, Peyton and the Colts pulled off a 26-21 victory and three years ago the Giants lost 38-14. 

To start of the NFL season, Peyton threw seven touchdowns on the way to a 49-27 whomping of the Superbowl Champion Baltimore Ravens.  Eli didn't have a bad week either with 450 yards and four TDs but did have three intereceptions.  Those plus three more Giant fumbles led to a loss against their division rival Cowboys, but it was much closer of a game than you would expect with six turnovers.

Let's compare pointless stats:

That was useful, right?

Denver Offense vs. New York Defense

After the offensive performance they turned in last Thursday, the Broncos are 4 point favorites on the road.  It would be crazy to expect another seven touchdown outing from Peyton and New York's defense won't help.  Despite the six turnovers keeping the Giants D's hands full, they did keep New York in the game and gave them a chance to win at the end.  Peyton's new targets, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas, bring racial diversity and more guys named Johnson to the receiving corps, respectively.  Both had huge two TD games, as did the other Johnson (Demaryius), and Manning should have no problem finding people to throw to again this week.  The Broncos didn't look great rushing (2.8 ypc for 65 total yards) but in case you didn't pick up on it yet, they have Peyton Manning.  This defense should give him more trouble than Baltimore did, but the elder Manning should still put up big numbers.

New York Offense vs. Denver Defense

Although they gave the ball to Dallas six times, New York's offense is actually quite lethal.  David Wilson's two fumbles and 19 yards rushing have received all the attention this week, but the receivers Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle each had 100+ yard games with Cruz hauling in 3 TDs personally.  The fact that they were playing from behind has to be taken in to account, obviously.

Wilson's fumble problems likely won't persist but the Giants signed ex-Giant Brandon Jacobs this week to back him up and catch the ball if it pops out of his grip.  The Broncos defense didn't have much of a challenge last week against a Ravens offense that lacked everyone but Torrey Smith and should be tested more this week against the Giants, especially since Champ Bailey will continue to be sidelined.  Look for Eli to put up similar numbers to last week.

Prediction

This game marks the first time in NFL history that the two quarterbacks threw for 400+ yards the prior week and should become the ninth game in history where both quarterbacks hit 400+ yards.  The OVER is set at 55 and these teams should have no problem passing that.  This will be a shootout with the Broncos eventually pulling ahead in the third and Eli trying to pull a comeback.  This spread would probably be a bit closer to -3 if not for Peyton's Week 1, but it's still not that high for such a high-powered offense.  Denver with Manning is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-2 as a favorite and should add another win to both those records this week.  Vinny and Marco have made the Giants the official Spreadzone pick but the rest of the experts agree with me on DEN.  4-2 Denver....seems like an obvious choice.  Denver wins 38-31.

MaChez Says:         Denver Broncos (-4) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS  & OVER 55

Expert Team: 4-1 Denver to cover

Official Spreadzone Pick: NEW YORK GIANTS (+4) over Denver Broncos, OVER

NFL Week 2 Picks ATS: Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay Packers - Preview and Predicitons

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins - Preview and Prediction

The Packers looked like the far better team in Week 1 and Vegas has rewarded them as 7.5 point home favorites with the total set at 49.5.

By:  MaChez, TSZ Expert

Last week the Packers battled the NFC favorite 49ers and played a pretty complete game.  If not for an unlucky interception, the Packers easily could have been the team ESPN has been salivating over all week. The Redskins on the other hand started their season with a thud, giving up three straight turnovers to start the game against the Eagles before a second half comeback effort fell short.  Both teams will be fighting to avoid an 0-2 SU and ATS start to the season.

This week, the Packers and Redskins face off at Lambeau Field in what should be an exciting matchup featuring two of the most popular players in the NFL - Ryan Pickett and Leonard Hankerson.  It looks to be the best game in the morning slate of games and therefore is being dubbed the first ever "The Spread Zone Early Game of the Week! (TSZEGOTW)” as we try to bring you more detailed analysis of the popular games.  Let us know in the comments which games you’d like to read about next week.

Green Bay Offense vs. Redskins Defense

In what should come as a shock to no one, the Packers have one of the top pass offenses in the league.  Aaron Rodgers, with his slew of almost #1 receivers, easily put up 28 points against the vaunted SF defense and should have no problem doing the same against a Redskins D that couldn't cover the Eagles’ one receiver, DeSean Jackson.  A little more surprising: The savior of the RB and offensive line problems, rookie RB Eddie Lacey, looked like your typical, below-average Packers’ running back and even fumbled so he could get benched and take a break from all the scary NFL players.  Fortunately he faces a team that gave up 263 yards rushing and couldn’t have stopped LeSean McCoy if he was running blindfolded.  Lacey should improve significantly, helping open up the field for Rodgers to pick apart a Redskins D that will again have trouble keeping up.

 

Redskins Offense vs. Packers Defense

As mentioned previously, RGIII and the Redskins offense were the epitome of rusty during the first three quarters on Monday night, giving new meaning to "Operation Patience." The Redskins finally put up some offensive points with six seconds left in the third quarter but just didn’t look good until they were playing catch-up against a defense that was defending a 25-point lead. RGIII looked a little off both as a passer (15.5 QBR, 2 INT) and a runner (69 yards combined with Alfred Morris) and will need to gain some confidence quickly.

Green Bay's run D was surprisingly solid last week - rendering Frank Gore ineffective (2.1 YPC) while coming up with several big stops.  Unless something changes during this short week, RGIII and Morris will have another tough game with Clay Matthews waiting around every corner to eat Griffin for breakfast….or lunch.

“Hands off the meat, Clay.”

Fortunately for the Redskins the Packers pass defense is still in the business of giving up massive amounts of yards through the air. They gave up 412 yards last week but do have their star safety, Morgan Burnett, returning who should help limit the Redskins' deep plays and third down conversions.  Although the Redskins will likely put up big numbers through the air, the Packers D will provide enough pressure to cause one or two turnovers and keep Rodgers on the field long enough to maintain a good lead.

Prediction

         

Rodgers loves chips on his shoulder (preferably Salt and Vinegar) and has one right now after losing three straight times to his childhood favorite 49ers. He can feel Kaepernick creeping up on his best QB status and won't let another young running QB do the same, especially in the home opener.  Yes it is a big spread, but the Packers should have an easy time against the Redskins who still have some kinks to work out after a wasted preseason.  Look for Rodgers to have a big game and the Packers to win 38-20.

MaChez Says: GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over Washington Redskins, OVER 49.5

Expert Team: 5-0 Packers to cover

Official TSZ Score Prediction: 31-21

Interesting Facts to Back up Our Prediction

• The Packers have one of the best homefield advantages in the league, going 8-1, 8-1, 7-1, and 6-2 at Lambeau over the last four seasons.  For all you non-math majors, that's 85%.
• With Rodgers at the helm, the Packers have averaged 28.6 PPG in home openers.
• During the past four years, the Packers have gone 12-1 at home following a loss and that one loss was a week after Rodgers suffered a concussion in 2010.  Even factoring in that three point loss, the Packers have outscored opponents by an average of 13.6 points at home following a loss. 
• In all his previous second games back from a season ending injury, RGIII has never covered the spread or hit the UNDER.  (Just making sure you’re paying attention).
• Rodgers hasn’t started and completed two straight losing efforts in the last three and a half seasons and has gone 13-4 ATS after a loss since 2009.
• The home team and the favorite are both 3-1-1 ATS in the last five matchups between these teams.

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