NFL Picks: Conference Championships 2015

Season to Date: 47-41 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Playoffs: 6-2 ATS

So much for parity in the NFL this year. As we enter the Conference Championships we are left with the following:

1. The most storied franchise in football whose legendary coach has his name on the Super Bowl trophy.
2. The current team that not only holds said trophy but looks to be on their way to keeping it.
3. The most consistent team in football since the millennium.
4. The team that missed the playoffs once and received the best quarterback the league has seen #1 and #3 entered the league.

If there is a Cinderella at the ball this year, it's the Indianapolis Colts who entered the playoffs as an offensive powerhouse but have used terrific defensive performances to dismantle the Broncos and the Bengals. The Colts now head to Gillette Stadium to face the Patriots who are playing in their fourth consecutive Conference Championship but remain Super Bowl-less since 2003. In the NFC, we have the Legend of Boom and their pretty amazing big-play offense hosting the Green Bay Packers and their future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Were this game being played in Lambeau, it would be epic. In Seattle, we're not so sure. Let's get to the picks so I can hit the road and spend the weekend at Marco's rooting for the underdogs.

Conference Championship Picks 

So far Marco and I have picked 7 underdogs and 1 favorite. Dogs are 5-3 ATS, and since we nailed all five and the one fav, we're 6-2 ATS. Our strategy is not changing this week. If you're not sure which dog is going to cover, take both.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Bill Bellichick is 5-3 SU in championship games, but 3-5 ATS - keep in mind he's 0-5 ATS since his last Super Bowl. The Pats are also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24+ in the divisional round. This is looking great for Indy. Want some more confidence boosting stats? Conference championship teams off road wins preceded by home wins (Indy) are 8-4 SU/10-2 ATS since 1998, including 4-0 ATS as an underdog. PLUS - Andrew Luck is 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750. That's enough for us to say - Go Indy. Take the points, bet the money line, and watch a new era of QB take the reigns of the NFL. We also expect Indy's defense to earn another UNDER for totals bettors. Colts +7 and the UNDER.



Green Bay Packers (+7.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Every now and again Marco and I go with a heart pick over a head pick. There are really no good reasons to take Green Bay except - they're Green Bay, c'mon man, 60% of Aaron Rodgers is like 500% of 70% Cam Newton. Unfortunately, the Packers defense is like 30% of Carolina's. But let's ignore that. Green Bay has offensive weapons, and while the Panthers stayed in last week's game with their defense, the Packers should be able to put more points on the board. On a neutral field, Seattle's probably only 2 points better than GB. Five and half for home field advantage gives us some value on the dog. Let's not get into the fact that Seattle is undefeated against Super Bowl winning QBs since Carrol took the reins or the fact that they're the only team left in the playoffs to keep teams under 100 yards rushing/game or the fact that Russell Wilson is like 6,000 and 3 at home since arriving in the league. Let's just enjoy an instant classic as these two teams provide more points than anyone expected. Take Green Bay and the Over (as 10 of 15 championship games with a total set at 46+ have gone over). 




Good luck and May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders

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