Friday, January 30, 2015

NFL Picks ATS: Super Bowl XLIX Patriots vs Seahawks

Season to Date: 48-42 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Playoffs: 7-3 ATS

Note: This will be the final post of the season for The Spread Zone.  I use the open-ended "the season" because I've always been more of a "See ya later" guy than a "Goodbye Girl," and I have a feeling - although I don't anticipate returning for next year's regular season - that Marco and I might open to a regular post-season gig. Let's see what happens next. In the meantime, please accept a big thank you to the best readers on the Inter-Web who stuck with the us through all the highs and lows of the past three years. It feels really good to bounce back this year and finish on a high, leaving a wake of yet another dominant post-season. You're the best, guys and girls. 

At long last and with seemingly less hype (probably because I've been watching college and pro basketball rather than ESPN), Super Bowl XYZPDQ has finally arrived. While the Conference Championships left fans of deflation elated and other fans just plain deflated, the Super Bowl match-up is probably the one everyone was hoping to see. The new king of the castle, Russell Wilson, and his historically good defense goes up against former king, Tom Brady, and his historically good hair line.

Honestly, I don't even think I can sugarcoat this bad boy. To Marco and me, this is the biggest "Duh" in Super Bowl history. We are not fans of either team, we really have no horse in the race, which makes us confident that we're going to have our second straight 8-3 ATS post-season and bring The Spread Zone's Super Bowl record to 3-0 ATS. 

Let's just talk about the facts - or as we affectionately call them:

Twelve Reasons to take the 'Hawks

REASON #1: Two weeks ago Seattle had one of its worst fifty-six and half minute stretches they've had in the past two years.

REASON #2: New England is coming off one of the more convincing Conference Championship games in recent history.

REASON #3: The American public has the attention span of a goldfish with 71%+ backing New England in the wake of the Conference Championships. No way Vegas eats that much in losses. Anyone remember how Seattle was giving up 6 points/game prior to their mental lapse against Green Bay?

REASON #4: Favorites of less than 3 points in the Super Bowl are 3-8 ATS. Pats opened at -1.

REASON #5: In Conference Championship and Super Bowl rounds, teams coming off a 38+ point win at home are now 5-18-1 ATS. Again, this applies to New England.

REASON #6: Since 1978, defending champs who return to the Super Bowl are 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS.

REASON #7: Underdogs have covered 6 of the last 7 Super Bowls and won 4 of the last 5 SU.

REASON #8: In their 5 Super Bowl appearances under Belichick, New England is 1-4 ATS, covering only their first.

REASON #9: The Patriots are 1-4 ATS this year against top ten run defenses and 1-6 ATS against top ten run offenses. Guess who falls into both categories.

REASON #10: The Patriots are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on natural grass while the Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13.

REASON #11: If Marco can still play Madden with his recently dislocated shoulder - and boy can he - then you'd better believe Chancelor and Sherman will not be slowed by their injuries.

REASON #12: The 12th man travels.

The way we see it, this has all the makings of a repeat performance. Last year Denver arrived at the Super Bowl calm, cool, collected, convincing the world their offensive prowess would be enough to beat any team. That game ended in the first series. We don't think it will be that quick in Arizona, but rest assured the Seattle Seahawks defense will assert itself early and often into this game and by Sunday night everyone will be asking if this is the best defensive team the NFL has ever seen. It's as simple as Newton's first law of physics: An object in motion tends to stay in motion until it runs into a Seahawk.

PICKS: Seattle and the UNDER 47.5

May the Spread Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco


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  1. Defense wins championships . Seattle by 10.

  2. Thanks for all your effort boys, don't lose my email this time!! I was on NE all week, but going to fade public Money..Def does win but the 2 hurt wings on Sher and Thomas III scares me…when I seperated my shoulder I could not raise the arm over my shoulder for 2 months. SEA by 5 ..

    1. Cam and Mysterio - the last remaining refugees of TSZ. Thanks for showing up every week and doing your part to generate some dialogue here. Cam - I will not lose your e-mail and I definitely plan on coming back for the playoffs next year. I managed to get Seattle +2.5 parlayed with under 49. Good luck to all of us. Hope it's at least entertaining this year.

  3. It was exciting… changed up and hit NE +7.5 and under 53.5 teaser because I was flip flopping... so got real lucky… It's been fun…If you ever need a radiant heater for garage or patio shoot me an email.