Pages

Showing posts with label Against the Spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Against the Spread. Show all posts

Sunday, September 15, 2013

MaChez Says: NFL: Five Week 2 Picks & Predictions

Five Solid NFL Week 2 Picks and Predictions 

By MaChez, TSZ Expert

For those two of you who read my first “MaChez Says” article, you know we didn’t do too well (0-5).  But, the joke’s on you.  Vinny actually asked me to write an article highlighting the risks of sports betting and it went exactly as planned.  Suckers. Despite hours of research and confirmation in my thinking from other sources, all five of my picks (which were essentially 50-50 picks) were wrong, just like I wanted them to be.  Perfect.

Now what are the odds of getting five 50% predictions wrong? 1/32 or 3.125%. Pretty small, I know.  The chances of that happening (and then going 4-11-1 ATS) are so unlikely, it’s good we got it out of the way early, right? Yes, true, BUT it's just as likely we’ll go 5-0: 3.125%.  And that’s how sports betting goes.  You will have days when you win them all and other days when you don’t win any.  Some days you’ll go 4-1 or 1-4 (15.625% each), and more likely than not you’ll go 3-2 or 2-3 (31.25%).


In the end you’ll likely come out somewhere around 50% winning percentage.  You need 53% to make a profit on standard -110 odds and if you’re sitting up at 60% you’re doing really well.  Which just makes Vinny & Marco’s 65% win rate last year on their Friday Five all the more impressive.  So yes, Week 1 of the NFL didn’t go as well as we all would have hoped.  But be smart, stick with TSZ, bet what you can afford, and it’ll be a good season.

MaChez Says Week 2 Picks:

1. Packers/Redskins Over 50.5 (-108 @ 5Dimes)
2. Denver Broncos (-4) over New York Giants (-105 @ 5Dimes)
3. Teaser Sides 6 Points: New Orleans (+3) and Chicago (+.5)
4. Denver/New York Giants Over 55 (-102 @ 5Dimes)

5. Green Bay Packers (-7) over Washington Redskins (-114 @ 5Dimes)

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants Picks 'n Predictions


After a crazy second half in Week 1, the Broncos and Peyton Manning are being rewarded as 4.5 point favorites in New York.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

In what should be the best of today's late games, we've got Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos traveling to face his younger brother Eli and the New York Giants.  The Aw Shucks Golly Bowl, the Football on Your Phone Bowl, the Manning Bowl III.  Call it what you’d like - it’s The Spread Zone Late Game of the Week (TSZLGOTW)!

For the third time in their careers, and likely the last save a possible Super Bowl match-up, Elisha Archibald Manning’s two youngest boys will lead their respective teams into battle against each other.  Eli, with his typical boyish swag described the game and facing his brother as "neat" but history has proven to be a little more dirty for him and the Giants.  In the first match-up in 2006, Peyton and the Colts pulled off a 26-21 victory and three years ago the Giants lost 38-14. 

To start of the NFL season, Peyton threw seven touchdowns on the way to a 49-27 whomping of the Superbowl Champion Baltimore Ravens.  Eli didn't have a bad week either with 450 yards and four TDs but did have three intereceptions.  Those plus three more Giant fumbles led to a loss against their division rival Cowboys, but it was much closer of a game than you would expect with six turnovers.

Let's compare pointless stats:

That was useful, right?

Denver Offense vs. New York Defense

After the offensive performance they turned in last Thursday, the Broncos are 4 point favorites on the road.  It would be crazy to expect another seven touchdown outing from Peyton and New York's defense won't help.  Despite the six turnovers keeping the Giants D's hands full, they did keep New York in the game and gave them a chance to win at the end.  Peyton's new targets, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas, bring racial diversity and more guys named Johnson to the receiving corps, respectively.  Both had huge two TD games, as did the other Johnson (Demaryius), and Manning should have no problem finding people to throw to again this week.  The Broncos didn't look great rushing (2.8 ypc for 65 total yards) but in case you didn't pick up on it yet, they have Peyton Manning.  This defense should give him more trouble than Baltimore did, but the elder Manning should still put up big numbers.


New York Offense vs. Denver Defense

Although they gave the ball to Dallas six times, New York's offense is actually quite lethal.  David Wilson's two fumbles and 19 yards rushing have received all the attention this week, but the receivers Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle each had 100+ yard games with Cruz hauling in 3 TDs personally.  The fact that they were playing from behind has to be taken in to account, obviously.

Wilson's fumble problems likely won't persist but the Giants signed ex-Giant Brandon Jacobs this week to back him up and catch the ball if it pops out of his grip.  The Broncos defense didn't have much of a challenge last week against a Ravens offense that lacked everyone but Torrey Smith and should be tested more this week against the Giants, especially since Champ Bailey will continue to be sidelined.  Look for Eli to put up similar numbers to last week.

Prediction

This game marks the first time in NFL history that the two quarterbacks threw for 400+ yards the prior week and should become the ninth game in history where both quarterbacks hit 400+ yards.  The OVER is set at 55 and these teams should have no problem passing that.  This will be a shootout with the Broncos eventually pulling ahead in the third and Eli trying to pull a comeback.  This spread would probably be a bit closer to -3 if not for Peyton's Week 1, but it's still not that high for such a high-powered offense.  Denver with Manning is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-2 as a favorite and should add another win to both those records this week.  Vinny and Marco have made the Giants the official Spreadzone pick but the rest of the experts agree with me on DEN.  4-2 Denver....seems like an obvious choice.  Denver wins 38-31.

MaChez Says:         Denver Broncos (-4) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS  & OVER 55

Expert Team: 4-1 Denver to cover

Official Spreadzone Pick: NEW YORK GIANTS (+4) over Denver Broncos, OVER



Friday, September 13, 2013

NFL Week 2 Picks ATS: Friday Five - TSZ's Top Confidence Picks of the Week

Good morning everyone. I hope this post finds you all well, rejoicing the wet, low-scoring, New York Jets-covering Thursday Night Football game. I know we always feel better starting the week 1-0 ATS, especially when we nailed O/U prediction, too.



As many of you know, all of our NFL Week 2 Picks ATS and our NFL Week 2 Over/Under Picks are available to everyone for free now thanks to the kindness and understanding of our inclusive, non-elitist, TSZ Insider club. Although we struggled through Week 1 of the NFL on all levels, our Over/Unders hit at an 11-5 clip, bringing our totals including the preseason up to:

2013 ATS Picks to Date: 33-30-1 ATS

2013 O/U Picks to Date: 24-8

So, what we've decided to do is offer our TSZ Insiders in return for their sharing our Thursday/Monday picks with the world, is two Friday Five lists - one for our ATS picks, and one with Over/Under recommendations.





Sign up for the season, try us out for a week, or just come by The Spread Zone and grab all of our picks for nothing.

Good luck out there,

Vinny and Marco



NFL Week 2 Picks ATS: Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay Packers - Preview and Predicitons

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins - Preview and Prediction


The Packers looked like the far better team in Week 1 and Vegas has rewarded them as 7.5 point home favorites with the total set at 49.5.

By:  MaChez, TSZ Expert

Last week the Packers battled the NFC favorite 49ers and played a pretty complete game.  If not for an unlucky interception, the Packers easily could have been the team ESPN has been salivating over all week. The Redskins on the other hand started their season with a thud, giving up three straight turnovers to start the game against the Eagles before a second half comeback effort fell short.  Both teams will be fighting to avoid an 0-2 SU and ATS start to the season.


This week, the Packers and Redskins face off at Lambeau Field in what should be an exciting matchup featuring two of the most popular players in the NFL - Ryan Pickett and Leonard Hankerson.  It looks to be the best game in the morning slate of games and therefore is being dubbed the first ever "The Spread Zone Early Game of the Week! (TSZEGOTW)” as we try to bring you more detailed analysis of the popular games.  Let us know in the comments which games you’d like to read about next week.

Green Bay Offense vs. Redskins Defense

In what should come as a shock to no one, the Packers have one of the top pass offenses in the league.  Aaron Rodgers, with his slew of almost #1 receivers, easily put up 28 points against the vaunted SF defense and should have no problem doing the same against a Redskins D that couldn't cover the Eagles’ one receiver, DeSean Jackson.  A little more surprising: The savior of the RB and offensive line problems, rookie RB Eddie Lacey, looked like your typical, below-average Packers’ running back and even fumbled so he could get benched and take a break from all the scary NFL players.  Fortunately he faces a team that gave up 263 yards rushing and couldn’t have stopped LeSean McCoy if he was running blindfolded.  Lacey should improve significantly, helping open up the field for Rodgers to pick apart a Redskins D that will again have trouble keeping up.

 

Redskins Offense vs. Packers Defense

As mentioned previously, RGIII and the Redskins offense were the epitome of rusty during the first three quarters on Monday night, giving new meaning to "Operation Patience." The Redskins finally put up some offensive points with six seconds left in the third quarter but just didn’t look good until they were playing catch-up against a defense that was defending a 25-point lead. RGIII looked a little off both as a passer (15.5 QBR, 2 INT) and a runner (69 yards combined with Alfred Morris) and will need to gain some confidence quickly.

Green Bay's run D was surprisingly solid last week - rendering Frank Gore ineffective (2.1 YPC) while coming up with several big stops.  Unless something changes during this short week, RGIII and Morris will have another tough game with Clay Matthews waiting around every corner to eat Griffin for breakfast….or lunch.

“Hands off the meat, Clay.”

Fortunately for the Redskins the Packers pass defense is still in the business of giving up massive amounts of yards through the air. They gave up 412 yards last week but do have their star safety, Morgan Burnett, returning who should help limit the Redskins' deep plays and third down conversions.  Although the Redskins will likely put up big numbers through the air, the Packers D will provide enough pressure to cause one or two turnovers and keep Rodgers on the field long enough to maintain a good lead.

Prediction

         3lf9h.jpg

Rodgers loves chips on his shoulder (preferably Salt and Vinegar) and has one right now after losing three straight times to his childhood favorite 49ers. He can feel Kaepernick creeping up on his best QB status and won't let another young running QB do the same, especially in the home opener.  Yes it is a big spread, but the Packers should have an easy time against the Redskins who still have some kinks to work out after a wasted preseason.  Look for Rodgers to have a big game and the Packers to win 38-20.

MaChez Says: GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over Washington Redskins, OVER 49.5

Expert Team: 5-0 Packers to cover

Official TSZ Score Prediction: 31-21

Interesting Facts to Back up Our Prediction

  • The Packers have one of the best homefield advantages in the league, going 8-1, 8-1, 7-1, and 6-2 at Lambeau over the last four seasons.  For all you non-math majors, that's 85%.
  • With Rodgers at the helm, the Packers have averaged 28.6 PPG in home openers.
  • During the past four years, the Packers have gone 12-1 at home following a loss and that one loss was a week after Rodgers suffered a concussion in 2010.  Even factoring in that three point loss, the Packers have outscored opponents by an average of 13.6 points at home following a loss. 
  • In all his previous second games back from a season ending injury, RGIII has never covered the spread or hit the UNDER.  (Just making sure you’re paying attention).
  • Rodgers hasn’t started and completed two straight losing efforts in the last three and a half seasons and has gone 13-4 ATS after a loss since 2009.
  • The home team and the favorite are both 3-1-1 ATS in the last five matchups between these teams.













Thursday, September 12, 2013

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread: Picks and Predictions for Every Game

My mother-in-law has a horse and a donkey. Their names are Peanut and Moonshadow. They're very big, very cute, poop a ton, and live to eat hay. I mean they absolutely love the stuff. Would they rather eat apples and carrots and cookies? I don't know, but even after eating those things, they still love to eat hay. They go nuts for the stuff. When the chore of feeding them falls upon me, even if I'm just a few minutes late, Peanut and Moonie start banging up against the corral and whinnying like a couple of junkies.



What amazes me is the enthusiasm with which they receive the hay - the same exact hay they've been eating three times a day for the past decade. Snorting and bucking and naying, they get all excited as I toss out the dry, flaky pieces of...the exact same hay they had three hours ago. If I walk by the corral between feedings they're at the fence line as if to say, "Got some of that hay, got any of that delicious golden, yummy hay? Do you? Do you? Do you?" It's unbelievable.

Until I remember how I feel on Tuesday morning, with the last bits of Monday Night Football still coursing through my veins, and three long days until Thursday. Got any football? Got any football? Got any delicious, fast-paced, helmet-flying, concussion-causing, spread-determining football? C'mon man. I need some football.

Well, it's Thursday at last. We posted our Jets-Pats Thursday night picks already, and here come the rest of them.

Can I get a "Ha-aay."



Preseason Stats: 29-19 ATS; 13-3 O/U

Regular Season to Date: 4-11-1 ATS; 11-5 O/U

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS, winners bold, and all of our Expert Picks back at The Spread Zone.

San Diego Chargers (+7.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: It's a Christmas day miracle, everyone. Chip Kelly's offense isn't just for college kids anymore. It's amazing. It's beautiful. It's the second coming of...well, nothing we've ever seen before, so it's really a first coming. Climb on the bandwagon - there's plenty of room for everyone. Hey, can you move over a little? This guy wants to get on, too.



That's right, Chip Kelly and his high-falutin', super-secret offense scored 33 points in 32 minutes, embarrassing the defending NFC East champion Washington Redskins on Monday Night. After that, however, they scored zero points for the rest of the game as their low-falutin', super-secret defense let the Redskins back into the game with three touchdowns in the last 16 minutes. Sound familiar? That's because the exact same thing happened in San Diego three hours later. The only difference - San Diego was playing a better team and lost. There should be no line here. Also, San Diego has hit the OVER in six of their last seven road games while Philly - even before Kelly - was a regular OVER at home. Did you know the last four teams to open play Philly in their season opener went on to win the Super Bowl. Start planning the parade San Diego. Take the points, and the OVER 54.5.

Expert Picks: 4-1 Chargers

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: Miami cornerbacks Dimitri Patterson and Nolan Carroll both had high praise for the arm of Cleveland Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden. "The one Carroll got was a better spiral," said Patterson, "but we both agree that all three throws were some of the hardest we've ever intercepted." Having shaken off the early season jitters and studied his color chart fastidiously - brown, brown, brown - we're confident the young-ish 29 year-old sophomore will make better decisions in Baltimore this week - like  handing the ball to Trent Richardson.



I'd feel better with the extra half point here, but that's why they call it the hook. Four out of Baltimore's last five games against the AFC North have stayed UNDER the total, while the last OVER between these two teams was in September of 2010 when they reached a staggering combined 41 points. With all four AFC North teams losing last week, the Cleveland Browns are playing for sole possession of first place, people. That hasn't happened in like...EVER. Take the points and take the UNDER 43.5.

Expert Picks: 3-2 Browns

HOUSTON TEXANS (-9) over Tennessee Titans: If there's anything we should have learned from last week, it's to stay away from the favorite with big lines. Unfortunately, we're not that smart. Houston has owned this series in recent history, winning 5 of 6 against the number with the OVER hitting in four of their last five meetings. This is opening day at home for a Texans team that not only managed to escape defeat last week in San Diego but has set the bar very high for themselves the past couple of years. Am I just mad at myself for drafting Chris Johnson? Maybe, but I still say lay the points, take the OVER 43. 

Expert Picks: 3-2 Titans

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) over Miami Dolphins: This is one of the tougher games on the schedule to cap this week, which is why we're playing it safe and hoping to get Luck-y at home. Andrew Luck has not lost at home since September of last year when the Colts were upset by the Jags in the third game of the 2012 season. Since then, he is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, failing for the first time last week as 11 point favorites against the Oakland Raiders.



Miami, on the other hand, broke a four game road SU/ATS losing streak when they beat the Cleveland Browns last week. Are you really reading too much into that? The more compelling stat is that the UNDER has hit in 6 of Miami's last 7 road games, so they do play tough - just not quite tough enough to win. Lay the points and take the UNDER 42.5. 

Expert Picks: 4-1 Colts

Carolina Panthers (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS: Why isn't anyone jumping on the Bills bandwagon after they pulled off the unlikely miracle cover last week against the New England Patriots? Because at the end of the day, the Patriots made tons of mistakes, the Bills didn't, and they still lost the game. Can I get another Hallelujah for Chip Kelly?

The Carolina Panthers have one of the more underrated defenses in the league. They shut down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week - also in a loss - and they should be able to put enough pressure on Bills rookie QB EJ Manuel to force a couple of early mistakes. The Bills of late have been hitting the UNDER a lot, and I don't see that changing on Sunday. Lay the points on the road and take the UNDER 44. 

Expert Picks: 4-1 Panthers

ATLANTA FALCONS (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams: Jared Cook had a coming out party last week in St. Louis and on both of my fantasy teams, but it was all just barely enough to beat the Arizona Cardinals at home. The defending NFC South champion Atlanta Falcons, on the other hand, are coming off of a disappointing, goal-line standing, NFC championship-reminiscent loss to their once-again division rival New Orleans Saints. Yes, the Rams have been stellar against the number on the road of late going 3-1-1 SU while covering all 5 games, but this game sets up nicely to be a bit of a letdown after eking out a non-covering home win against a division rival.



Atlanta was 6-2 SU at home last year, but only 3-5 against the number with the UNDER surprisingly hitting in 6 of those games. Numbers may not lie, but they don't always tell the whole story either. We're ignoring all of these stats and going with the Falcons at home and the OVER 47.5 in a bit of a shootout. 

Expert Picks: 3-2 Rams

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Although RGIII got his preseason snaps in during the first half of last week's game against the Philadelphia Eagles, he still never looked entirely comfortable inside or outside the pocket. There seemed to be uncertainty in what he could or could not do, and that type of indecisiveness will turn Operation Patience into Operation Punishment up in Wisconsin. Green Bay is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, and although
they've hit the UNDER in 4 of their last 6 home games, those were in the cold autumn and winter months. This is September for crying out loud. Give the 'Skins the points and watch the teams put up 50+. Green Bay 31-21

Expert Picks: 5-0 Packers

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) over Dallas Cowboys: We admit it. Kansas City is a blind spot. We know it was just the Jags they beat last week, we know it's why their defense is flying off the fantasy waiver wire, and we know that Alex Smith did not transform into an elite quarterback overnight. We also know that even as 2-14 team last year, the Chiefs finished the season 3-3 ATS at home with the UNDER going 4-1-1 in those games. Besides, could they have possibly hired a coach that knows how to deal with the 'Boys better than Andy Reid? Dallas also fared well against the number last year, going 5-3 ATS on the road with the UNDER hitting 6 times in 8 games. We give a slight lean towards laying the points and a heavy lean towards the UNDER 46.5.

Expert Picks: 3-2 Chiefs

CHICAGO BEARS (-6) over Minnesota Vikings: Ugh. We've read this script, seen this movie, and it isn't pretty. This will be an incredibly boring field position battle all day long as Minnesota's front four pressures Jay Cutler into mistakes that will be someone else's fault and Adrian Peterson gets lots of short carries with a few medium-sized ones sprinkled in. The score will be 13-3 at the half, and the Bears will run away with it in the second half, winning 23-13. Chicago has owned Minnesota at home, outscoring them 77-20 in their past two visits to the Windy City, and against division rivals at home the Bears have hit the UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games.



The Bears have also won 6 of 7 of their last matchups, and Minnesota has only won two games (2-11) in Chicago since 2000, the last one coming in 2007. The average margin of victory against the Vikings since Cutler arrived is 16.75 points. Plus, over the past 11 seasons, the Vikings have only averaged 1.45 wins/year outdoors, including losing all five outdoor contests last year.Give up the points and bet UNDER 42.

Expert Picks: 4-1 Bears

New Orleans Saints (-3) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: The New Orleans Saints are back and they let the NFL world know not only with a 23-17 win over division foe Atlanta but with a goal-line stand inspired by new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan whom they hired "five minutes" after he was let go by the Cowboys. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, however, spent last weekend in New York finding new and exciting ways to lose. A late hit penalty put the Jets in field goal range and sent the Bucs spiraling towards what appears to be another dismal start. Our surprising pick here is not the Saints, but the UNDER. The Bucs do play tough defense at home and couple that with Ryan's new schemes in New Orleans and we might have a final score something like 27-17 Saints. Save the cheerleader, save the world. Lay the points and take the UNDER 47.

Expert Picks: 5-0 Saints

Detroit Lions (-1.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: When the Arizona met Detroit Lions in last December's Underachievment Bowl, the Lions were spiraling out of control while the Cardinals were looking for a way to stop the bleeding. Turns out Lion fur is a wonderful haemostatic agent (medication used to stop bleeding). The Cards pummeled the Lions at home 38-10. Enter Reggie Bush. Exit repeat performance. This game will not appear in our Friday Five, but will appear in the Sports Center Top Ten as Bush breaks another long touchdown for Detroit. I also like the OVER here. The Lions should have put up another 21 points against the Vikings and Arizona has Carson Palmer behind center now. Although both teams have solid defenses, I think this will end up being a late score wins the game in a shootout type dealie. Take the Lions and the OVER 47.5.



Expert Picks: 4-1 Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS: As well as they played last week in Indianapolis, we're not ready to say the Raiders are worthy of this many points against anyone - even the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. This is like the moldy hay you sometimes get in the middle of the winter. It smells funky, it sticks together rather than falling apart easily into flakes, but you know what - the horse and donkey still eat it anyway. In fact, they love it. Take the road dog and the UNDER 39.5.

Expert Picks: 4-1 Jaguars

NEW YORK GIANTS (+4.5) over Denver Broncos: Ah, the good old Aw Shucks Golly Bowl. This feels like an annual event, but the truth is Peyton and Eli haven't seen each other since 2010 when Peyton's Indianapolis Colts handed the Giants a 38-14 shellacking. Since then, Eli has won another Super Bowl and Peyton  has been traded to the Denver Broncos. If you haven't seen Peyton and Eli's "Football on Your Phone" Direct TV promo, then you must:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtuGXO6d4l8



Last week the Giants looked awful. Six turnovers, no running game, and they were still hanging around the Cowboys on the road. Meanwhile, in Bronco-land, Denver was lighting up the Ravens to the tune of 5 second half TDs and a 49-27 final score. We believe Denver is good, but we also believe this number is slightly inflated because of the performances of both these teams last week. Give up the points and take the OVER 55. 

Expert Picks: 4-1 Denver - what do they know?

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Trendy pick here would be the Forty Niners after the Kaeped Crusader threw for 400+ yards and new addition Anquan Boldin caught half of those yards in a convincing home win over the Green Bay Packers. Granted Seattle struggled on the road, but they also won which is more than we could say for them last year when away from the safe confines of CenturyLink Field. This game has been anticipated since last season when the 'Hawks put the hurt on the Forty Niners 42-13 last December. This game will look nothing like that, but the result will be a Seahawks win and cover as they continue their home dominance. Give up the field goal and watch a surprising OVER 44.5.

Expert Picks: 3-2 Seattle

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+7) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Cincinnati Bengals have been to the playoffs two years in a row and are some analysts favorite to with the AFC North The Pittsburgh Steelers are a perennial playoff team and are always a favorite to win the AFC North. Last week the Bengals lost a tough road game in Chicago while the Steelers layed an egg at home in an embarrassing loss to the Tennessee Titans. Now the Steelers are done, the Bengals should coast to the playoffs again, and Big Ben is just a stupid clock in England, right? Wrong. The Steelers are a prideful organization with a top ten defense, a Hall of Fame quarterback, and a 5-1 SU/ATS record against Cincinnati the past three seasons. Plus it's Monday Night Football. No way the Steelers get embarrassed again. We like them to cover, win, and keep this game UNDER 40.5.



Expert Picks: 3-2 Cincinnati

I know what you're thinking - that a lot of favorites. Here's the thing, with ten favorites and six dogs this week, if we nail the dogs we're looking at 14-2 ATS week. How's that for confidence in the wake of tragedy?

That's all the ha-ay this week fellow horses and mules. Spread it out, make it last, and most importantly enjoy the heck out of it.

Tune in tomorrow for our Friday Five promo and the Professor of Parlay's Picks of the Week. Oh, and if you run into any TSZ Insiders at The Spread Zone this weekend, remember to thank them for sharing their Thursday and Monday Night picks.

Good luck out there,

Vinny and Marco