NBA POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 51-30 ATS
NBA FINALS: 4-1 ATS
VINNY'S STANLEY CUP FINALS PICKS: 5-1
KYLE'S NHL PICKS TO DATE: 51-39-1
KYLE'S MLB PICKS TO DATE: 166-136-7
KYLE'S UFC PICKS: 14-8*
KYLE'S TENNIS PICKS: 2-0
Not only is the former Tar Heel/D-Leaguer/journeyman Danny Green leading the San Antonio Spurs in scoring through five games of the NBA Finals, but the greenest of hockey prognosticators - possibly on the planet - improved his overall Stanley Cup Finals record to 5-1 last night when the Boston Bruins earned a dominating, 2-0 shutout win over the Chicago Blackhawks, taking a 2-1 series lead. Will these trends continue on Tuesday and Wednesday night? Will there ever again be such perfect overlap between the NBA and NHL championships? Will a mediocre double entendre be as good as this post gets? The answers in no particular order are: Absolutely, only if there's another NHL lockout, and maybe.
So how about that? An undisclosed number of years into his life, Vinny the Geek is suddenly a big enough hockey fan that he's already worrying about Wednesday's picks. But tonight is Tuesday. Tonight is Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Tonight is the reason I worked late yesterday, so I could have this evening off to enjoy either the end of an era or the first close game of the Finals since Game 1. Here's how we think things unfold.
San Antonio Spurs (+6.5) over MIAMI HEAT: Let's hit the stats first before I get into the psychology of this game. During the playoffs, the Miami Heat are an impressive 6-0 SU and ATS after a loss, seemingly posting wins inversely proportional to the embarrassment of the losses. They've won those games by an average of 20 points/game including 19 and 16 point victories over the Spurs in Games 2 & 4. The Heat are also 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS when trailing in a playoff series the past two years. Conversely, over the past two seasons (including Game 2 of the Finals), the Spurs are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points.
All signs are pointing to South Beach right? We don't think so.
Although Miami has posted convincing wins coming off of loses or series deficits, in none of those games were their backs against the wall quite like this one. Sure they won a Game 7 against the Indiana Pacers, but they never trailed in that series and they were intimidating, favorite with home court advantage and championship experience. They've also trailed in series in the post-season - down 1-0 to Oklahoma City, Chicago, and San Antonio, 2-1 to the Spurs, and so on, but the last time they trailed 3-2 was 2011 against the Dallas Mavericks. They were coming home then, too, and we all remember how that turned out.
Even though this series is back in South Beach for two games and technically the Miami Heat still have home court advantage, the 2-3-2 format of the NBA Finals lands them in Game 6 needing to win two games in a row against an experienced, veteran San Antonio Spurs team. This is no small feat. If it were one game, I'd give the edge to the Heat, but as much as players like to say "We're just taking this one game at a time," the second game looms large in back of their minds.
We believe that the longer this game stays close, the more the pressure mounts on Miami's Big Three. As a result, LeBron James will distribute too much, Dwyane Wade will force the issue, and Chris Bosh will disappear. If the Spurs don't win - and we think they will - they will at least keep it close enough to cover. Take the San Antonio and the points and enjoy the extension of the Spurs dynasty to an impressive 14 years.
Vinny and Marco
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They were also down 3-2 in the conference finals last year against Boston with game 6 in Boston and game 7 in Miami. Lebron went off in game 6, scoring 45 points (almost half of Miami's 98), in a 19-point victory and then put up 31 in a 13-point victory in Game 7. In all his career elimination games, he's averages 32.75 points, which is the best ever (thanks ESPN).
ReplyDeleteAlthough in Finals elimination games (Dallas and SA) he hasn't played as well (22.5 points), I think Leborn will come up big at home and continue Miami's trend of alternating W/L over the past month. I do like your spread pick though, if not only so I can finally see a close game where we're not watching scrubs play the final few minutes.
You know, in the back of my mind I felt like I was missing something. Thank you for the correction, I always appreciate it because it means someone is reading attentively.
DeleteThanks, Airin.
Vinny