NBA FINALS: 2-1 ATS
KYLE'S NHL PICKS TO DATE: 51-39-1
KYLE'S MLB PICKS TO DATE: 166-136-7
KYLE'S UFC PICKS: 11-6 (8-0 on confidence picks)
KYLE'S TENNIS PICKS: 2-0
Before I begin, I have to confess that today - for the first time in my life - I actually went online with the sole purpose of checking a hockey score. It was yet another glorious reminder of how much more interesting life is when you gamble. Did I actually have money on the game? No. But my opinion was staked yesterday morning and I'm as addicted to being right as I am to winning. As it turns out, the Blackhawks did win the game in TRIPLE OVERTIME but the total went way OVER, so I ended up looking like a coin flipper at 1-1. I'm guessing saves and shots on goal would have been terrific prop bets in what turned out to be the fifth longest game in NHL history.
The miracle on ice that happened to me last night was getting home at almost 10 o'clock on the West Coast, marveling that the game was still going, turning on the T.V., and - I kid you not - eleven seconds later watching the game winning goal. It was the perfect amount of hockey viewing, and for the gamblers who actually had some action on the game, I can't imagine how many ulcers, alcoholic relapses, forgotten dates, and dissolution of marriages took place between the end of regulation and Andre Shaw's deflection two and a half periods later. Brutal.
As for the NBA, it turns out that the Kool Aid in San Antonio tastes an awful lot like the stuff they were serving Sunday night in Miami. Although I jokingly said 33-5 runs are just a ho-hum part of most basketball games, in this series - judging by the Spurs 63-33 second half run in Game 3 - they just might be. I realized as I was writing my post a couple of days ago that I've been using the Kool Aid reference a lot to describe blindly following what appears on the surface to be a good idea.
"Take the Spurs in Game 4. Beverage?"
The origins of what has become a phrase common to sports lie in one of the most horrific mass suicides in history when a charismatic leader by the name of Jim Jones started a cult known as the Peoples Temple and ultimately murdered 303 of his followers, including 200 children, by persuading them to ingest cyanide. When I did a little reading and saw some pictures of Jonestown, I decided I would retire this phrase from my writing repertoire. Pretty F-ed up S-word.
Instead, let's talk about being a prisoner of the moment - believing that what is right now or what was most recently will always be. In this case, the easy pick for Game 4 becomes the San Antonio Spurs because of their convincing blowout victory on Tuesday. Nothing worth having, however, is easy.
MIAMI HEAT (+1) over San Antonio Spurs: Judging by the line movement towards the Miami Heat since Game 3 when they were getting a hefty 2 plus, the odds makers are well aware of their recent history of rebounding convincingly from post-season losses. The Heat have lost five times this post-season - once against the Bulls, three times to the Pacers, and Game 1 of this Finals - and they are 5-0 SU/ATS following those games, winning by an average margin of 22 points. TWENTY-TWO POINTS!
Do we really think they're going to do that against an experienced San Antonio Spurs team in their building? Of course not, but this is the closest thing to a must-win game the Miami Heat have experienced since 2011. Lose Game 4, and they face the improbable task of winning three in a row against a dynastic squad of veteran players. Win, and it's a three game series with two at home.
If you'd like a side of stats with your entree, I'd encourage you to start with the fact that the Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 NBA championship games, or perhaps try their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 following a straight up win with some 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall. For dessert, however, I'd recommend the specialty which is the Heat's 20-7 ATS record in their last 27 road games with a sprinkle of 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games all topped off with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
It all sounds good, so something's got to give and we think it already did in the form of Tony Parker's hammy. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Coach Pop saves Parker for the three game series that kicks off in the Alamo Dome this Sunday. In the meantime, take the points and the Heat.
Vinny and Marco
PS Kyle's Corner will return this weekend with a full report on the upcoming UFC event. Stay tuned.
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