NFL Picks ATS: Super Bowl XLIX Patriots vs Seahawks

Season to Date: 48-42 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Playoffs: 7-3 ATS


Note: This will be the final post of the season for The Spread Zone.  I use the open-ended "the season" because I've always been more of a "See ya later" guy than a "Goodbye Girl," and I have a feeling - although I don't anticipate returning for next year's regular season - that Marco and I might open to a regular post-season gig. Let's see what happens next. In the meantime, please accept a big thank you to the best readers on the Inter-Web who stuck with the us through all the highs and lows of the past three years. It feels really good to bounce back this year and finish on a high, leaving a wake of yet another dominant post-season. You're the best, guys and girls. 

At long last and with seemingly less hype (probably because I've been watching college and pro basketball rather than ESPN), Super Bowl XYZPDQ has finally arrived. While the Conference Championships left fans of deflation elated and other fans just plain deflated, the Super Bowl match-up is probably the one everyone was hoping to see. The new king of the castle, Russell Wilson, and his historically good defense goes up against former king, Tom Brady, and his historically good hair line.


Honestly, I don't even think I can sugarcoat this bad boy. To Marco and me, this is the biggest "Duh" in Super Bowl history. We are not fans of either team, we really have no horse in the race, which makes us confident that we're going to have our second straight 8-3 ATS post-season and bring The Spread Zone's Super Bowl record to 3-0 ATS. 

Let's just talk about the facts - or as we affectionately call them:

Twelve Reasons to take the 'Hawks

REASON #1: Two weeks ago Seattle had one of its worst fifty-six and half minute stretches they've had in the past two years.

REASON #2: New England is coming off one of the more convincing Conference Championship games in recent history.

REASON #3: The American public has the attention span of a goldfish with 71%+ backing New England in the wake of the Conference Championships. No way Vegas eats that much in losses. Anyone remember how Seattle was giving up 6 points/game prior to their mental lapse against Green Bay?

REASON #4: Favorites of less than 3 points in the Super Bowl are 3-8 ATS. Pats opened at -1.

REASON #5: In Conference Championship and Super Bowl rounds, teams coming off a 38+ point win at home are now 5-18-1 ATS. Again, this applies to New England.

REASON #6: Since 1978, defending champs who return to the Super Bowl are 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS.

REASON #7: Underdogs have covered 6 of the last 7 Super Bowls and won 4 of the last 5 SU.

REASON #8: In their 5 Super Bowl appearances under Belichick, New England is 1-4 ATS, covering only their first.

REASON #9: The Patriots are 1-4 ATS this year against top ten run defenses and 1-6 ATS against top ten run offenses. Guess who falls into both categories.

REASON #10: The Patriots are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on natural grass while the Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13.

REASON #11: If Marco can still play Madden with his recently dislocated shoulder - and boy can he - then you'd better believe Chancelor and Sherman will not be slowed by their injuries.

REASON #12: The 12th man travels.



The way we see it, this has all the makings of a repeat performance. Last year Denver arrived at the Super Bowl calm, cool, collected, convincing the world their offensive prowess would be enough to beat any team. That game ended in the first series. We don't think it will be that quick in Arizona, but rest assured the Seattle Seahawks defense will assert itself early and often into this game and by Sunday night everyone will be asking if this is the best defensive team the NFL has ever seen. It's as simple as Newton's first law of physics: An object in motion tends to stay in motion until it runs into a Seahawk.

PICKS: Seattle and the UNDER 47.5

May the Spread Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco


Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Picks: Conference Championships 2015

Season to Date: 47-41 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Playoffs: 6-2 ATS

So much for parity in the NFL this year. As we enter the Conference Championships we are left with the following:

1. The most storied franchise in football whose legendary coach has his name on the Super Bowl trophy.
2. The current team that not only holds said trophy but looks to be on their way to keeping it.
3. The most consistent team in football since the millennium.
4. The team that missed the playoffs once and received the best quarterback the league has seen #1 and #3 entered the league.

If there is a Cinderella at the ball this year, it's the Indianapolis Colts who entered the playoffs as an offensive powerhouse but have used terrific defensive performances to dismantle the Broncos and the Bengals. The Colts now head to Gillette Stadium to face the Patriots who are playing in their fourth consecutive Conference Championship but remain Super Bowl-less since 2003. In the NFC, we have the Legend of Boom and their pretty amazing big-play offense hosting the Green Bay Packers and their future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Were this game being played in Lambeau, it would be epic. In Seattle, we're not so sure. Let's get to the picks so I can hit the road and spend the weekend at Marco's rooting for the underdogs.

Conference Championship Picks 

So far Marco and I have picked 7 underdogs and 1 favorite. Dogs are 5-3 ATS, and since we nailed all five and the one fav, we're 6-2 ATS. Our strategy is not changing this week. If you're not sure which dog is going to cover, take both.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Bill Bellichick is 5-3 SU in championship games, but 3-5 ATS - keep in mind he's 0-5 ATS since his last Super Bowl. The Pats are also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24+ in the divisional round. This is looking great for Indy. Want some more confidence boosting stats? Conference championship teams off road wins preceded by home wins (Indy) are 8-4 SU/10-2 ATS since 1998, including 4-0 ATS as an underdog. PLUS - Andrew Luck is 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750. That's enough for us to say - Go Indy. Take the points, bet the money line, and watch a new era of QB take the reigns of the NFL. We also expect Indy's defense to earn another UNDER for totals bettors. Colts +7 and the UNDER.



Green Bay Packers (+7.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Every now and again Marco and I go with a heart pick over a head pick. There are really no good reasons to take Green Bay except - they're Green Bay, c'mon man, 60% of Aaron Rodgers is like 500% of 70% Cam Newton. Unfortunately, the Packers defense is like 30% of Carolina's. But let's ignore that. Green Bay has offensive weapons, and while the Panthers stayed in last week's game with their defense, the Packers should be able to put more points on the board. On a neutral field, Seattle's probably only 2 points better than GB. Five and half for home field advantage gives us some value on the dog. Let's not get into the fact that Seattle is undefeated against Super Bowl winning QBs since Carrol took the reins or the fact that they're the only team left in the playoffs to keep teams under 100 yards rushing/game or the fact that Russell Wilson is like 6,000 and 3 at home since arriving in the league. Let's just enjoy an instant classic as these two teams provide more points than anyone expected. Take Green Bay and the Over (as 10 of 15 championship games with a total set at 46+ have gone over). 




Good luck and May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Divisional Round Picks ATS: All Dogs All Day

Season to Date: 44-40 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

(Not So) Wild Card Weekend: 3-1 ATS

Oh the irony of sports gambling. If you look at last week's picks I believe my direct quote for the Arizona (+5.5) pick was "If we were ranking, this would be our number one pick." As it turns out, it was our only pick that went down in a blaze of the most un-glorious quarterback play I've ever seen. It's a good thing Ryan Lindley studied "back-up plans" at San Diego State.


...I'm better at than playing football. Oh good, sounds like he has options.

This week we hope to continue our historic post-season success with some intriguing divisional round match-ups. As mentioned, the Panthers won in dominant fashion and now head to Seattle with a five-game winning streak against a Seattle team on a six game win streak. Similarly, Sunday's NFC match-up boasts an undefeated road team in the Cowboys against an undefeated home team in the Packers. Awesome, right? And still no comments from our old friend MaChez. Where for art thou buddy? Meanwhile, over in the AFC we have a rivalry game between Joe Cool and just plain Cool along with a battle between former Colts vs future Colts legends. What a weekend. Let's get pickin'. For our good friend John M. and his pool, we're projecting the O/U's, too.

Saturday's Games

Baltimore Ravens (+7) over the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Talk about your definition of road warriors. Time and time again we've seen the Baltimore Ravens enter the playoffs as a lower seed and time and time again they find ways to get the W's. As the only road team to escape the Wild Card round, the Ravens now take their show to Gilette stadium where they face the New England Patriots. No doubt the Pats will be rested and ready, but if you watched Joe Flacco - with all the time in the world - throwing pretty spirals down the field against the Steelers, you can't pass up an entire touchdown. New England might advance, but we're predicting a score somewhere around 24-21. Take the RAVENS and the UNDER.



STAT BACKER: Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff road games while New England is 0-3 ATS in their last three playoff games against the Ravens, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games, and even 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games at home. So much for home field advantage.

Carolina Panthers (+11.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: A closer look at the Panthers recent win streak shows that they did it against teams with a combined 33-47 record while Seattle compiled theirs against almost all winning teams. Couple that with the fact that Cam Newton has only led one touchdown drive in his last against the 'Hawks and their defense (which has only given up 39 points in their past 6 games), and our Panthrers pick looks as bold as my aging head. Oh wait, that's bald. Nonetheless, eleven plus points in a playoff game between two teams that play tight defense and close games is too much to pass up. An early mistake or a well-designed opening drive (you know Seattle will defer if they win the toss) and we're looking at 18+. Take CAROLINA but fade the public, John M., and back the OVER. Seattle wins 28-17.



STAT BACKER: The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road playoff games. Who cares because this probably dates back to the Delhomme era. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games. We'll call that a wash and not remind you that the last six teams to finish the year under .500 and win a Wild Card game then lost in the divisional round by double digits. We think the trend continues, but we'll still win by half a point.

Sunday's Games

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Dallas Cowboys got that first round monkey off their backs thanks to their defense and a very questionable non-call by the referees. Nonetheless, they now pack that defense and hit the road where they haven't lost since last year. The Packers are a seemingly unstoppable force at home, but we think Dallas can keep up with them offensively and slow them down on offense. Back DALLAS and the UNDER here.



STAT BACKER: The Pack are always a big pubic play and this game is no exception. With 60% of the bets on Green Bay, the line has still dropped. We're rollin' with the sharps and the Cowboys 7-1 ATS road record.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over DENVER BRONCOS: That's right - all dogs this weekend. It's the football fans in us. We want close games and we believe we're going to get them. There is no quit in the Indy team, so at the very least we see this game being covered with a late back-door touchdown. Take the COLTS and the OVER (the public has this one right).



STAT BACKER: Peyton Manning is just 10-10 ATS in his last 20 post-season games and Denver is a paltry 1-4 ATS in their last 5.

Good luck and May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders
1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend Picks ATS

Man, how the mighty have fallen the past few weeks. After jumping out to an entirely unrealistic 9-2 ATS start with our number one picks along with a sizable cushion on our overall numbers, our final stats on our final season are as follows:

Season to Date: 41-39 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Fortunately, the post-season has always been kind to us here at TSZ. In fact, prior to our first season with TSZ, we rolled through the playoffs and into a New York Giants Super Bowl with a pool-winning 9-2 ATS record. It was the inspiration for the The Spread Zone and the beginning of a beautiful and bouncy three year relationship with blogging, betting, and bridging connections between gambler's around the world. During the past two post-seasons we were unable to match our initial success, but have yet to have a losing second season.

Wild Card Weekend Picks ATS

Truth be told, we've been watching so much college football I haven't had much chance to research picks or follow NFL story lines. What college ball has taught us, however, is that it's a great year to bet the underdogs and a better year to just watch some terrific football games. Let's hope the NFL matches up.

SATURDAY

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: Wow - talk about an overreaction to last week's drubbing of the Atlanta Falcons. This line is ridiculous. That was the Atlanta Falcons. They are the equivalent of a defensive sieve. The Cards defense will not only keep them in this game, but will remind Cam Newton that he's injured with an early sack or two. Don't be surprised if Superman sits out the second half out while the Cards win this one straight up. If we were ranking picks - this would be #1.



Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The history between these two teams has not been kind to the Ravens in the post-season, but if you look at the trends overall, they play close games. Granted the Steelers are now a pass-first team, but the injury of Le'Veon Bell will be just enough to keep the Ravens close. We'll take the points and won't be surprised if Joe Flacco has one of those games he's known for in the post-season.



SUNDAY

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals probably feel like they lucked out not having to play the Steelers again, but Luck will have something to say about that this weekend. This game will be over by halftime. Lay the points and watch the Bengals lay another post-season egg.



Detroit Lions (+7) over DALLAS COWBOYS: The 'Boys are going to make some noise this post-season, but the ghosts of Christmas past will haunt their nerves early and a couple of turnovers will allow the Lions to build a bit of a lead before Dallas comes back and wins and nail-biter in dramatic fashion. Take the points but don't bet the ML.



May the Spreads be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Picks Week 17: Packers vs Lions ATS & More

Season to Date: 38-36 ATS 

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 
Top Picks to Date: 10-5 ATS 

It's Vin-mania 2014 as my extended family has descended upon us, stretching Christmas and Boxing Day into the New Year. The resulting lack of time has me posting a Friday Five on Saturday morning while praying that Week 17 hurtles us into the post-season (where we've always thrived) with some momentum.

It's definitely garbage time in the NFL with only a handful of meaningful games left on the schedule. As Marco and I are wont to do, we're passing on the potential money-making games between off-season bound squads and bringing you our thoughts on the games that matter most.

In the beginning of the season, picking NFL games is like shooting fish in an ocean. Generally you aim at the big ones and hope for the best. By the middle of the NFL season, the ocean shrinks and Marco and the fish that have failed to cover the spread become our #1 targets. At the end of the year, however, the fish are who they are, they've established their patterns and the question becomes whether to Back the trend or Buck It. Sometimes we just say, "Buck it."

Week 17 Friday Five - Backing or Bucking

#5. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1) over San Diego Chargers: Meaningful game for both teams. The Chiefs are 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS against the AFC West but we're Bucking rather than Backing this trend. The home field advantage will be just enough for Kansas City to win. This is our least confident play, but sometimes that should be your most confident. Take the Chiefs.

#4. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over the PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers and their much improved offense has gone 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS against the AFC North in their last 6 home games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has quietly won their past four road games and their only blemish in the past five weeks was a home trouncing to the Steelers. This line is inflated. Buck the Steelers and Back the Bengals.

#3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+4) over New Orleans Saints: 91% of the public is backing the Saints in the most meaningless game they've ever played under Sean Peyton. Lovie Smith has more experience this year with meaningless games. The Saints are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 as favorites. We'll take the team that has known for weeks they weren't headed to the post-season over the team that just blew it last week.

#2. Detroit Lions (+7.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Lions are 0-4 ATS as a dog of 7+ with Matthew Stafford at the helm. Aaron Rodgers is a bit banged up. This is the game of the century for the Lions and we believe they will be ready. We might be influenced by our desire to see a close game, but we'll Buck the Lambeau magic and back the Lions.

#1. ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers: We'll back the trend that the home team in this series is 4-0 ATS. They also have the better/healthier/more experienced quarterback. Take the Falcons.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 16: Bengals vs Broncos ATS & So Much More

Season to Date: 37-33 ATS 

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 10-4 ATS 

When I was growing up, I divided my time between the north coast of California and the west coast of India. During my stints in the latter, until the age of six years old, we lived in a fishing village without electricity, running water, or the subsequent gluttony that comes with having those amenities. Kerosene lamps flickered in the houses after sundown as we read, played, ate, and without the constant hum of some sort of technology or appliance in the background. No television, no stereos, no refrigerator, and also nothing taken for granted.

 

Each morning, the Ice Man (this is way before Top Gun) would push his bike through the thick sand to our house and deliver a block of solid water which we would place inside our Styrofoam box/fridge. After that, the Veggy Lady, the Fruit Merchant, and the Fish Walla (no not the nineties band) would cruise the neighborhood selling their wares and we'd purchase what we needed for the day, or at the very most the weekend. There was no stock-piling or hoarding of food, just a simple day-to-day life of appreciation and serenity. 

Last week, I got to revisit those memories with my five year-old daughter when a tree on our property took out a power line, a phone line, and left us without Internet for a week even after the other two were restored. School was cancelled in our district, and we got to have an extra family day as we watched the rain come down and the PG & E trucks drive by. That, dear readers, is why there was no Friday Five last week. I suppose I could driven to town, but I didn't feel like trying to crank out a post in the bustle of a one-Starbucks town environment. Not my bag, baby. We'll try to make it up to you with our Week 16 picks.

Football is getting exciting. Playoff births are up in the air across the board are up for grabs and while the usual suspects in the AFC (Pats, Broncos, Colts) have punched their tickets, but only the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC have secured a spot in the second season. Does this mean teams with added motivation are guaranteed to win this weekend? Or are teams like the Niners finally going to relax and cut loose a bit in hopes for inviting the Chargers to join them for an off-season fishing trip? Let's take a look. 

NFL Week 16 Friday Five

#5. Denver Broncos (-3) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Bengals have a terrific home field advantage, but unfortunately they have a quarterback who can't win prime time games. Andy Dalton is 2-9 ATS under the lights which, coupled with the fact that Denver is still fighting for the number one seed (although I think Manning would be thrilled if the Colts got it and he could play indoors in the championship), and we're giving up the small chalk on the road.

#4. Detroit Lions (-9) over CHICAGO BEARS: This will feel like a home game to the Lions. They are giving up about 17 points/game on the season and will be facing a Jimmy Clausen who is 1-9 SU/3-7 ATS in his professional career. We don't roll with big lines very often, but the Lions are on their way to an NFC North title and they will be making a statement in that regard on Sunday.

#3. Indianapolis Colts (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS: From Week 13 on, the Cowboys are 3-19-1 ATS in their last 24 games. Couple that with the injury to DeMarco Murray and this is easy money.

#2. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns: Even an injured Cam Newton is better than an inexperienced Johnny Football. The Panthers could still win their division by winning out and having the Falcons and the Saints lose just once. Amazing.

#1. SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-1) over San Diego Chargers: The seventy-two percent of the public backing the Chargers obviously thinks that motivation will play a role in this game. But this is the NFL, a league full of players and coaches who have worked their asses off to survive the competition for as long as they have because even when they're not playing for the playoffs they're still playing for their futures. As unappealing as Jim Harbaugh is as a human being, he is a motivator of men. We think he will promise one million dollars of his exit contract to Michigan to anyone on the Niners who scores a touchdown. Take the Niners this evening at #1. 

Go Wolverines and May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marcox

NFL Picks Week 14: Ravens vs Dolpins ATS; Friday Five

Season to Date: 34-31 ATS 

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 9-4 ATS 

This morning I had to disappoint my five year-old daughter with news of a cancelled play date. As I was delivering the news I decided to present it as a good news bad news scenario and suddenly found myself riveted as she paused before making her choice. Personally, I've always been one to choose the bad news first so I have something to look forward to. I'd much rather get hit with the hard stuff and have a soft place to land than find out something exciting only to have it diminished by something god-awful. 

In what felt like a monumental, personality-defining moment, it took all of two seconds for my daughter to say, "Good news." Well, when you get home you get to watch Snow Days with Granny C. "Awesome," she replied. She didn't even remember there was bad news. I delivered it anyway - Sorry, sweetie, Lily's sick and can't play after school. "I don't mind," she said, clearly happy enough about Snow Days. Maybe I've had it all wrong. Maybe Good news would have cushioned the blows all these years. Let's experiment.

The good news, dear readers, is we're 9-4 ATS with our #1 picks and still hovering above .500 13 weeks into the NFL season. The bad news is we're 2-8 ATS (0-2 ATS on our #1's) over the past 2 weeks.

VS

The bad news is the losing streak here at TSZ continues as we've gone 2-8 ATS in our last 10 but the good news is our #1's are still 9-4 ATS on the year and we're hovering above .500 overall.. 

I think my daughter might be on to something. Let's get to the picks.

NFL Week 14 Friday Five Top Confidence Picks

#5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, I know - we should change our name to The Brownzone with the number of times we've taken Cleveland. I still argue that they've been good to us, but I don't know if I can back that with facts or numbers anymore. Here's the thing - nobody likes Johnny Manziel except for Johnny Manziel. Brian Hoyer's teammates are going to play their tails off for his job and Josh Gordon is going to have a field day with Colts top corner being questionable for Sunday's match-up. We like the Browns to frustrate Luck all afternoon and not only cover but win. Stat of the day: Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 off an SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.



#4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6) over New York Jets: The Vikings may be bad, but the Jets are awful. New York is 1-6-1 ATS following an ATS cover (very general useful stat) while the Vikings are 1-5 ATS after an ATS cover of more than 14 points (very specific not very useful stat). What compels us to take Minny is Jeff Grant tweeting that the Vikes are now 10-0 ATS in their last 10 home games in the second half of seasons. Team on the rise people. Well, against the Jets that is. 



#3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) over DETROIT LIONS: The Bucs have been bringing in the bucks as road dogs this season. Lovie Smith has his guys playing their hearts out despite their losing record and no hopes of a post-season birth. Couple the fact that Tampa Bays is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games (all as +6.5 dogs) with the fact that Detroit is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after an ATS win and you've got yourself a recipe for risk-free betting. That's an oxymoron. Take the points.



#2. HOUSTON TEXANS (-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Mark our words, JJ Watt will not only swat a potential touchdown on defense, he will also catch a touchdown which he will be asked to throw to himself. The kid can do it all. Give up the points and watch JJ pick the six right back for you. The Texans will be 6-1 ATS as favorites after this game.




#1. Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: This game has the smell of a 17-16 barn burner. Not sure who wins, but well take the points no matter who's getting them. In this case it's the road challenged Ravens, but guess what - the Ravens are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS after their last 7 SU losses. Meanwhile, Miami is a paltry 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sundays after a Monday Night Football appearance. Take the points. 



Five Bonus Picks: Why not? A full schedule of games again. Lots to choose from. Besides, we're kind of in the twilight of our careers with TSZ's final season coming to a close. Let's try to pad the stats where we can. Here are the five that didn't make the cut this week and why we like them:

* WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3) over St. Louis Rams: Home dog + the fact that the Rams are 1-12 ATS as road favorites playing against a team with revenge motive.

* DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over Buffalo Bills: When the Broncos are favored big, they respond. They are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 7 as 9+ point favorites.

* GREEN BAY PACKERS (-12.5) over Atlanta Falcons: Battle of division leaders? Sort of. Only GB comes in with a 9-3 record (undefeated at home) while ATL boasts a 5-7 (2-4 road) record. The Packers look unbeatable when they play at Lambeau while the Falcons are now 3-13 ATS in their last 16 upset wins as a home dog. 

* OAKLAND RAIDERS (+8) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Kaepernick's indecision + continued in-fighting in SF + Raiders 5-1 ATS record as 7+ point dogs = WIN.

* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+3.5) over New England Patriots: Philip Rivers plays his best football under pressure. New England plays their only bad football on the road. The Pats are now 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 2-6 ATS over the past two seasons as road favorites.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks ATS Week 13: Packers vs Patriots & More

Season to Date: 33-27 ATS (55%)

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 9-3 ATS (75%)

Happy Turkey Day, everyone. We hope your Thanksgiving was filled with friends, food, football, and most importantly an infinitely long gratitude list. We've appreciated you for three seasons now and our only regret is that we don't have more time to spend waxing philosophical about the ridiculous art/tomfoolery of gambling. For a while now I've been meaning to apologize for the quickly declining lengths of our posts here at TSZ, but what we've sacrificed in circumlocution we've more than made up for with...well, fancy words like circumlocution. Oh, and winning. Unfortunately, our #1 pick went down last week when Tampa Bay quarterback, Josh McCown, threw back to back complete lasers to the Chicago Bears defense, flipping a Buccaneers lead into a huge third quarter deficit. Fortunately, however, we've already clinched a winning season with our top confidence picks which are now sitting at a respectable 9-3 ATS. 

NFL Week 13 Friday Five

#5. Oakland Raiders (+7) over ST. LOUIS RAMS: The Raiders got a confidence boosting win last week and had an extra three days off to recover. Although they are 1-10 SU on the season, they are now 4-1 ATS on the road covering larger lines. The Rams, on the other hand, are the a roller coaster - they've won every other week since mid-October, but with the exception of their 22-7 pounding of the Broncos, their average margin of victory is 2.3 points. We'll happily take the TD and a quickly improving Derek Carr.

#4. Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: The AFC North is stacked this year and although the Browns are in last place again, they're also in second place sitting at 7-4 and tied with the Steelers and the Ravens. Do we pick the Browns every week? Almost, and so far that has paid off to the tune of 6-3-2 ATS, 3-1-1 ATS on the road, and 4-0-1 as an underdog. The Bills were dominant in a make-shift prime time game which is why 72% of the public is backing them, but that was against the Jets, people. We'll take the field goal plus in a game that has field goal win written all over it. 

#3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5) over Denver Broncos: The Chiefs have been great at home this year (4-1 ATS) including wins over playoff-bound New England and Seattle, while the Broncos have had their ups and downs on the road (2-3 SU/ATS) with their wins coming against the Oakland Raiders and the New York Jets. Since joining the Broncos, Peyton Manning is now 2-4 ATS after Week 8 against teams that allow less than 21 ppg. How awesomely specific is that? Looks like easy money taking a home dog in KC this weekend. 

#2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) over New England Patriots: The Packers are 4-0-1 at home this year, winning games by an average of...TWENTY NINE POINTS PER GAME. That's ridiculous. I don't care how well New England is playing. Both of the Patriots losses have come on the road this year and when you have an unstoppable force going up against an unstoppable force, I'll take the home field advantage. This figures to be a potential Super Bowl preview and with 75% of the public backing New England, we like the Packers in a rout.

#1. Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: Why on earth wouldn't we bet on a team whose only two losses this year have come at the hands of last year's Super Bowl teams - on the road. With the exception of falling to the Broncos and the Seahawks, the Arizona Cardinals have won their other three road games by exactly 11 points each (NYG, DAL, OAK). The once home-dominant Falcons haven't won on their turf since Week 3 and they haven't beaten anyone outside their crappy division at all this year. Why this line is so low, who knows? We'll gladly give up the 2.5 and likely get a double-digit win.

May the Spreads Be with You, 

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 12: Broncos vs Dolphins ATS - Friday Five

Season to Date: 32-23 ATS (58%)

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 9-2 ATS (82%)

The unbelievable run of #1 picks continues at TSZ. Once again, gambling is akin to dating. When you're in a relationship, it's easy to flirt and get phone numbers because there's nothing to lose. In fact, in some demographics, married makes you even more attractive because there's nothing to lose on the other side. When you're single, however, and forced to play the game, take risks, and get rejected it's a whole other ballgame. Similarly, when Marco and I were in the game last season, "investing" money for our friends, we were broke by Week 9. This year, however, when we're just picking games with nothing at stake, we can apparently get whatever we want. Favorite, dog, home, away, hot, ugly, our number one picks keep on hitting. It's another classic "If Only..." tale of a degenerate gambler. 

This week Marco and I tried a new "system." Most of our systems are the same and have nothing to do with those fancy things called "computer programs" (whatever that is), and most hinge of efficiency, dialogue, and a rudimentary knowledge of sports, psychology, and the gambling industry. This week, the summation of that was a game we call "Like, Love, or Pass." We just went down the list and said one of those words. When we had a like or love in common, that became a game for discussion. The rest went by the wayside. Here are this week's Friday Five

Friday Five Week 12 

#5. Cleveland Browns (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS: That's right, we're going back to the brown water well. What? Against the first place Atlanta Falcons? Yes, against the first place 4-6 Atlanta Falcons. They will have no answer for the return of Josh Gordon which will open up the field for Cleveland. Take the points. 

#4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5) over St. Louis Rams: Over-hyped versus Over-due. The Rams defense looks great, but there has to be a letdown after what equated to the Ram's Super Bowl last week when they knocked off the Broncos at home. The Rams are over-valued in this spot. Give up the points and take the UNDER, too if you're a totals bettor.

#3. Tennessee Titans (+11) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Could this be an over-valued Monday Night team versus an undervalued blown-out team? It certainly could, but we've seen enough of the Titans defense and enough of Zack Mettenberger to believe this game will stay within a touchdown. Take eleven and get some change. 

#2. DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5) over Miami Dolphins: Not enough points to back the Dolphins against what will be an angry. Peyton Manning is 7-1 with the Broncos after a loss and they've covered six of those games. That's enough for us. 

#1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) over CHICAGO BEARS: The return of Lovie is all we need to take the Bucs to cover here. The Bears should not be favored by this many over anyone, especially when the Bucs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Chicago, while the Bears are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. The weather will be terrible, points will be at a premium, so we'll take almost a touchdown all day long.

Sorry so short, but family obligations.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco#5.