NFL Picks Week 17: Packers vs Lions ATS & More

Season to Date: 38-36 ATS 

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 
Top Picks to Date: 10-5 ATS 

It's Vin-mania 2014 as my extended family has descended upon us, stretching Christmas and Boxing Day into the New Year. The resulting lack of time has me posting a Friday Five on Saturday morning while praying that Week 17 hurtles us into the post-season (where we've always thrived) with some momentum.

It's definitely garbage time in the NFL with only a handful of meaningful games left on the schedule. As Marco and I are wont to do, we're passing on the potential money-making games between off-season bound squads and bringing you our thoughts on the games that matter most.

In the beginning of the season, picking NFL games is like shooting fish in an ocean. Generally you aim at the big ones and hope for the best. By the middle of the NFL season, the ocean shrinks and Marco and the fish that have failed to cover the spread become our #1 targets. At the end of the year, however, the fish are who they are, they've established their patterns and the question becomes whether to Back the trend or Buck It. Sometimes we just say, "Buck it."

Week 17 Friday Five - Backing or Bucking

#5. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1) over San Diego Chargers: Meaningful game for both teams. The Chiefs are 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS against the AFC West but we're Bucking rather than Backing this trend. The home field advantage will be just enough for Kansas City to win. This is our least confident play, but sometimes that should be your most confident. Take the Chiefs.

#4. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over the PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers and their much improved offense has gone 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS against the AFC North in their last 6 home games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has quietly won their past four road games and their only blemish in the past five weeks was a home trouncing to the Steelers. This line is inflated. Buck the Steelers and Back the Bengals.

#3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+4) over New Orleans Saints: 91% of the public is backing the Saints in the most meaningless game they've ever played under Sean Peyton. Lovie Smith has more experience this year with meaningless games. The Saints are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 as favorites. We'll take the team that has known for weeks they weren't headed to the post-season over the team that just blew it last week.

#2. Detroit Lions (+7.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Lions are 0-4 ATS as a dog of 7+ with Matthew Stafford at the helm. Aaron Rodgers is a bit banged up. This is the game of the century for the Lions and we believe they will be ready. We might be influenced by our desire to see a close game, but we'll Buck the Lambeau magic and back the Lions.

#1. ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers: We'll back the trend that the home team in this series is 4-0 ATS. They also have the better/healthier/more experienced quarterback. Take the Falcons.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco