NFL Picks Week 14: Ravens vs Dolpins ATS; Friday Five

Season to Date: 34-31 ATS 

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 9-4 ATS 

This morning I had to disappoint my five year-old daughter with news of a cancelled play date. As I was delivering the news I decided to present it as a good news bad news scenario and suddenly found myself riveted as she paused before making her choice. Personally, I've always been one to choose the bad news first so I have something to look forward to. I'd much rather get hit with the hard stuff and have a soft place to land than find out something exciting only to have it diminished by something god-awful. 

In what felt like a monumental, personality-defining moment, it took all of two seconds for my daughter to say, "Good news." Well, when you get home you get to watch Snow Days with Granny C. "Awesome," she replied. She didn't even remember there was bad news. I delivered it anyway - Sorry, sweetie, Lily's sick and can't play after school. "I don't mind," she said, clearly happy enough about Snow Days. Maybe I've had it all wrong. Maybe Good news would have cushioned the blows all these years. Let's experiment.

The good news, dear readers, is we're 9-4 ATS with our #1 picks and still hovering above .500 13 weeks into the NFL season. The bad news is we're 2-8 ATS (0-2 ATS on our #1's) over the past 2 weeks.

VS

The bad news is the losing streak here at TSZ continues as we've gone 2-8 ATS in our last 10 but the good news is our #1's are still 9-4 ATS on the year and we're hovering above .500 overall.. 

I think my daughter might be on to something. Let's get to the picks.

NFL Week 14 Friday Five Top Confidence Picks

#5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, I know - we should change our name to The Brownzone with the number of times we've taken Cleveland. I still argue that they've been good to us, but I don't know if I can back that with facts or numbers anymore. Here's the thing - nobody likes Johnny Manziel except for Johnny Manziel. Brian Hoyer's teammates are going to play their tails off for his job and Josh Gordon is going to have a field day with Colts top corner being questionable for Sunday's match-up. We like the Browns to frustrate Luck all afternoon and not only cover but win. Stat of the day: Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 off an SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.



#4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6) over New York Jets: The Vikings may be bad, but the Jets are awful. New York is 1-6-1 ATS following an ATS cover (very general useful stat) while the Vikings are 1-5 ATS after an ATS cover of more than 14 points (very specific not very useful stat). What compels us to take Minny is Jeff Grant tweeting that the Vikes are now 10-0 ATS in their last 10 home games in the second half of seasons. Team on the rise people. Well, against the Jets that is. 



#3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) over DETROIT LIONS: The Bucs have been bringing in the bucks as road dogs this season. Lovie Smith has his guys playing their hearts out despite their losing record and no hopes of a post-season birth. Couple the fact that Tampa Bays is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games (all as +6.5 dogs) with the fact that Detroit is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after an ATS win and you've got yourself a recipe for risk-free betting. That's an oxymoron. Take the points.



#2. HOUSTON TEXANS (-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Mark our words, JJ Watt will not only swat a potential touchdown on defense, he will also catch a touchdown which he will be asked to throw to himself. The kid can do it all. Give up the points and watch JJ pick the six right back for you. The Texans will be 6-1 ATS as favorites after this game.




#1. Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: This game has the smell of a 17-16 barn burner. Not sure who wins, but well take the points no matter who's getting them. In this case it's the road challenged Ravens, but guess what - the Ravens are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS after their last 7 SU losses. Meanwhile, Miami is a paltry 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sundays after a Monday Night Football appearance. Take the points. 



Five Bonus Picks: Why not? A full schedule of games again. Lots to choose from. Besides, we're kind of in the twilight of our careers with TSZ's final season coming to a close. Let's try to pad the stats where we can. Here are the five that didn't make the cut this week and why we like them:

* WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3) over St. Louis Rams: Home dog + the fact that the Rams are 1-12 ATS as road favorites playing against a team with revenge motive.

* DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over Buffalo Bills: When the Broncos are favored big, they respond. They are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 7 as 9+ point favorites.

* GREEN BAY PACKERS (-12.5) over Atlanta Falcons: Battle of division leaders? Sort of. Only GB comes in with a 9-3 record (undefeated at home) while ATL boasts a 5-7 (2-4 road) record. The Packers look unbeatable when they play at Lambeau while the Falcons are now 3-13 ATS in their last 16 upset wins as a home dog. 

* OAKLAND RAIDERS (+8) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Kaepernick's indecision + continued in-fighting in SF + Raiders 5-1 ATS record as 7+ point dogs = WIN.

* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+3.5) over New England Patriots: Philip Rivers plays his best football under pressure. New England plays their only bad football on the road. The Pats are now 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 2-6 ATS over the past two seasons as road favorites.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco