Last Week: 1-4 ATS
Top Picks to Date: 9-3 ATS (75%)
Happy Turkey Day, everyone. We hope your Thanksgiving was filled with friends, food, football, and most importantly an infinitely long gratitude list. We've appreciated you for three seasons now and our only regret is that we don't have more time to spend waxing philosophical about the ridiculous art/tomfoolery of gambling. For a while now I've been meaning to apologize for the quickly declining lengths of our posts here at TSZ, but what we've sacrificed in circumlocution we've more than made up for with...well, fancy words like circumlocution. Oh, and winning. Unfortunately, our #1 pick went down last week when Tampa Bay quarterback, Josh McCown, threw back to back complete lasers to the Chicago Bears defense, flipping a Buccaneers lead into a huge third quarter deficit. Fortunately, however, we've already clinched a winning season with our top confidence picks which are now sitting at a respectable 9-3 ATS.
NFL Week 13 Friday Five
#5. Oakland Raiders (+7) over ST. LOUIS RAMS: The Raiders got a confidence boosting win last week and had an extra three days off to recover. Although they are 1-10 SU on the season, they are now 4-1 ATS on the road covering larger lines. The Rams, on the other hand, are the a roller coaster - they've won every other week since mid-October, but with the exception of their 22-7 pounding of the Broncos, their average margin of victory is 2.3 points. We'll happily take the TD and a quickly improving Derek Carr.
#4. Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: The AFC North is stacked this year and although the Browns are in last place again, they're also in second place sitting at 7-4 and tied with the Steelers and the Ravens. Do we pick the Browns every week? Almost, and so far that has paid off to the tune of 6-3-2 ATS, 3-1-1 ATS on the road, and 4-0-1 as an underdog. The Bills were dominant in a make-shift prime time game which is why 72% of the public is backing them, but that was against the Jets, people. We'll take the field goal plus in a game that has field goal win written all over it.
#3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5) over Denver Broncos: The Chiefs have been great at home this year (4-1 ATS) including wins over playoff-bound New England and Seattle, while the Broncos have had their ups and downs on the road (2-3 SU/ATS) with their wins coming against the Oakland Raiders and the New York Jets. Since joining the Broncos, Peyton Manning is now 2-4 ATS after Week 8 against teams that allow less than 21 ppg. How awesomely specific is that? Looks like easy money taking a home dog in KC this weekend.
#2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) over New England Patriots: The Packers are 4-0-1 at home this year, winning games by an average of...TWENTY NINE POINTS PER GAME. That's ridiculous. I don't care how well New England is playing. Both of the Patriots losses have come on the road this year and when you have an unstoppable force going up against an unstoppable force, I'll take the home field advantage. This figures to be a potential Super Bowl preview and with 75% of the public backing New England, we like the Packers in a rout.
#1. Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: Why on earth wouldn't we bet on a team whose only two losses this year have come at the hands of last year's Super Bowl teams - on the road. With the exception of falling to the Broncos and the Seahawks, the Arizona Cardinals have won their other three road games by exactly 11 points each (NYG, DAL, OAK). The once home-dominant Falcons haven't won on their turf since Week 3 and they haven't beaten anyone outside their crappy division at all this year. Why this line is so low, who knows? We'll gladly give up the 2.5 and likely get a double-digit win.
May the Spreads Be with You,
Vinny and Marco
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