Last Week: 3-2 ATS
Top Picks to Date: 7-2 ATS
The streak is over. Our number one overall pick went down last week for the just the second time all season when the New York Jets failed to cover the double-digit spread against the Kansas City Chiefs. With plenty of opportunities for the back-door cover, the Jets appeared to just mail it in - non-priority, book rate, on an old-school horse-drawn wagon - at the end of the game. Perhaps Rex Ryan was pulling a Pete Rose as a contingency plan for his impending dismissal. Or maybe Michael Vick had a small wager on the Chiefs to cover the expense of his next concussion. Either way it was awful and embarrassing for everyone in the Jets organization (what happened Laura?) and anyone foolish enough to sell the pick for coffee. Fortunately and unfortunately, there were no new customers to disappoint.
"I'm lovin' my new shade of green."
Overall, however, another winning week at The Spread Zone. We loved the idea of going 16-1 ATS with our top picks, but we also remember what happened to the 2011 Green Bay Packers (I'm just going to keep trying to get your attention Nick) when they coasted to a 15-1 record and a first-round playoff exit, so we'll take an early loss and regroup with a big Week 10. With time at as much of a premium as our picks these days, I'm going to skip the foreplay and get straight to Sunday's top plays.
Shamelesss Promotion Section
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2. Coffee Donations: Will work for caffeine. If you feel like sending us a cup of encouragement or a thank you on Monday, just click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and send us a orange mocha frappaccino. We love comments, too - praise, criticism, spam, the works. This community is nothing without you - Mysterio, Dally, Dan, BNB4B, Francis, Jay, Todd, John M., Archie...Veronica, Betty, Jughead, you all know who you are.
NFL Week 10 Friday Five (on Saturday)
#5. Tennessee Titans (+10) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: Yes, the Ravens are great at home. Yes, they are practically unbeatable in November under coach John Harbaugh (12-1 SU). And yes, all five of their wins this season have come by an average of 117.3 (exaggeration alert) points. This, however, is the NFL, which means that when something looks like a sure bet, you'd better think twice while simultaneously Googling images of of fancy hotels in Las Vegas that were built on sure bets. The Titans are coming out of their bye week where bad NFL teams often get better and healthy. Sure their QB and LSU alum Zach Mettenberger will be starting his second career game, but we like the Titans to surprise everyone here and keep this game close. Take the double digits.
#4. Carolina Panthers (+7) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Are the Panthers the same team they were in 2013? No, but what they are and have always been is a terrific live dog to bet. In their last 12 games as a road dog, the Carolina Panthers have gone a cool 9-3 ATS, including SU wins their last two underdog appearances on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are tough on both sides of the ball, but Mark Sanchez is making his first start of the season replacing the injured Nick Foles, and although I picked him up for my fantasy team (shallow FA pool), I expect some struggles and prototypical Sanchezian mistakes to keep this game close. Again with the points.
#3. San Francisco Forty Niners (+6) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The Niners have been very mediocre this year and it appears as though Colin Kaepernick's presumed breakout year is turning into a regression to the mean. There's no doubt he is physically gifted, but there is growing doubt every week (that both SF and KC play) that letting go of Alex Smith was the right thing to do. Similarly, the New Orleans Saints have also struggled this year, and both teams enter this contest par for their courses (4-4). Conversely, however, while the Saints are in first place in their division the Niners will be battling for their playoff lives in this game. Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 in his career against the Saints and we believe the Niners will find a way to not only cover this game, but win it outright. The points are a gift.
#2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over Chicago Bears: Is there any reason to think Aaron Rodgers coming out of a bye week won't score on the Bears defense every single time he has the ball? We can't find one? Is there any reason to think the Bears defense will be slightly better and slightly healthier after their week off? Of course there is, but not enough to give them any less than double digits at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 4-0-1 ATS at home this year while the Bears come into this match-up at 7-15-2 ATS in the Marc Trestman era. It's time to fade the 2014 Bears.
#1. Coffee + e-mail = Our Top Picks for life. Our top confidence pick has now gone 7-2 ATS this season, which we believe is worth a cup of coffee. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on ourTSZ.com list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:
1. Click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon to the right and make a donation of your choosing.
2. Send us the confirmation number to vinnyandmarco@gmail.comalong with the e-mail address you'd like your pick sent to.
3. Get our pick and receive all future picks by being added to our mailing list.
4. We will refund coffee donations of more than $25 if our pick does not cover* - that's how confident and fair we are.
*Minus Paypal service charge.
Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.
Vinny and Marco
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