NFL Picks Week 17: Packers vs Lions ATS & More

Season to Date: 38-36 ATS 

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 
Top Picks to Date: 10-5 ATS 

It's Vin-mania 2014 as my extended family has descended upon us, stretching Christmas and Boxing Day into the New Year. The resulting lack of time has me posting a Friday Five on Saturday morning while praying that Week 17 hurtles us into the post-season (where we've always thrived) with some momentum.

It's definitely garbage time in the NFL with only a handful of meaningful games left on the schedule. As Marco and I are wont to do, we're passing on the potential money-making games between off-season bound squads and bringing you our thoughts on the games that matter most.

In the beginning of the season, picking NFL games is like shooting fish in an ocean. Generally you aim at the big ones and hope for the best. By the middle of the NFL season, the ocean shrinks and Marco and the fish that have failed to cover the spread become our #1 targets. At the end of the year, however, the fish are who they are, they've established their patterns and the question becomes whether to Back the trend or Buck It. Sometimes we just say, "Buck it."

Week 17 Friday Five - Backing or Bucking

#5. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1) over San Diego Chargers: Meaningful game for both teams. The Chiefs are 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS against the AFC West but we're Bucking rather than Backing this trend. The home field advantage will be just enough for Kansas City to win. This is our least confident play, but sometimes that should be your most confident. Take the Chiefs.

#4. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over the PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers and their much improved offense has gone 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS against the AFC North in their last 6 home games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has quietly won their past four road games and their only blemish in the past five weeks was a home trouncing to the Steelers. This line is inflated. Buck the Steelers and Back the Bengals.

#3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+4) over New Orleans Saints: 91% of the public is backing the Saints in the most meaningless game they've ever played under Sean Peyton. Lovie Smith has more experience this year with meaningless games. The Saints are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 as favorites. We'll take the team that has known for weeks they weren't headed to the post-season over the team that just blew it last week.

#2. Detroit Lions (+7.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Lions are 0-4 ATS as a dog of 7+ with Matthew Stafford at the helm. Aaron Rodgers is a bit banged up. This is the game of the century for the Lions and we believe they will be ready. We might be influenced by our desire to see a close game, but we'll Buck the Lambeau magic and back the Lions.

#1. ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers: We'll back the trend that the home team in this series is 4-0 ATS. They also have the better/healthier/more experienced quarterback. Take the Falcons.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 10: Packers vs Bears ATS, Friday Five Confidence Picks

Season to Date: 26-19 ATS 

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 7-2 ATS

The streak is over. Our number one overall pick went down last week for the just the second time all season when the New York Jets failed to cover the double-digit spread against the Kansas City Chiefs. With plenty of opportunities for the back-door cover, the Jets appeared to just mail it in - non-priority, book rate, on an old-school horse-drawn wagon - at the end of the game. Perhaps Rex Ryan was pulling a Pete Rose as a contingency plan for his impending dismissal. Or maybe Michael Vick had a small wager on the Chiefs to cover the expense of his next concussion. Either way it was awful and embarrassing for everyone in the Jets organization (what happened Laura?) and anyone foolish enough to sell the pick for coffee. Fortunately and unfortunately, there were no new customers to disappoint. 


      "I'm lovin' my new shade of green."

Overall, however, another winning week at The Spread Zone. We loved the idea of going 16-1 ATS with our top picks, but we also remember what happened to the 2011 Green Bay Packers (I'm just going to keep trying to get your attention Nick) when they coasted to a 15-1 record and a first-round playoff exit, so we'll take an early loss and regroup with a big Week 10. With time at as much of a premium as our picks these days, I'm going to skip the foreplay and get straight to Sunday's top plays. 

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2. Coffee Donations: Will work for caffeine. If you feel like sending us a cup of encouragement or a thank you on Monday, just click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and send us a orange mocha frappaccino. We love comments, too - praise, criticism, spam, the works. This community is nothing without you - Mysterio, Dally, Dan, BNB4B, Francis, Jay, Todd, John M., Archie...Veronica, Betty, Jughead, you all know who you are. 

NFL Week 10 Friday Five (on Saturday)

#5. Tennessee Titans (+10) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: Yes, the Ravens are great at home. Yes, they are practically unbeatable in November under coach John Harbaugh (12-1 SU). And yes, all five of their wins this season have come by an average of 117.3 (exaggeration alert) points. This, however, is the NFL, which means that when something looks like a sure bet, you'd better think twice while simultaneously Googling images of of fancy hotels in Las Vegas that were built on sure bets. The Titans are coming out of their bye week where bad NFL teams often get better and healthy. Sure their QB and LSU alum Zach Mettenberger will be starting his second career game, but we like the Titans to surprise everyone here and keep this game close. Take the double digits.



#4. Carolina Panthers (+7) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Are the Panthers the same team they were in 2013? No, but what they are and have always been is a terrific live dog to bet. In their last 12 games as a road dog, the Carolina Panthers have gone a cool 9-3 ATS, including SU wins their last two underdog appearances on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are tough on both sides of the ball, but Mark Sanchez is making his first start of the season replacing the injured Nick Foles, and although I picked him up for my fantasy team (shallow FA pool), I expect some struggles and prototypical Sanchezian mistakes to keep this game close. Again with the points. 


#3. San Francisco Forty Niners (+6) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The Niners have been very mediocre this year and it appears as though Colin Kaepernick's presumed breakout year is turning into a regression to the mean. There's no doubt he is physically gifted, but there is growing doubt every week (that both SF and KC play) that letting go of Alex Smith was the right thing to do. Similarly, the New Orleans Saints have also struggled this year, and both teams enter this contest par for their courses (4-4). Conversely, however, while the Saints are in first place in their division the Niners will be battling for their playoff lives in this game. Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 in his career against the Saints and we believe the Niners will find a way to not only cover this game, but win it outright. The points are a gift. 



#2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over Chicago Bears: Is there any reason to think Aaron Rodgers coming out of a bye week won't score on the Bears defense every single time he has the ball? We can't find one? Is there any reason to think the Bears defense will be slightly better and slightly healthier after their week off? Of course there is, but not enough to give them any less than double digits at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 4-0-1 ATS at home this year while the Bears come into this match-up at 7-15-2 ATS in the Marc Trestman era. It's time to fade the 2014 Bears.


#1. Coffee + e-mail = Our Top Picks for life. Our top confidence pick has now gone 7-2 ATS this season, which we believe is worth a cup of coffee. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on ourTSZ.com list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:

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Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.

Vinny and Marco