NFL Picks ATS: Super Bowl XLIX Patriots vs Seahawks

Season to Date: 48-42 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Playoffs: 7-3 ATS


Note: This will be the final post of the season for The Spread Zone.  I use the open-ended "the season" because I've always been more of a "See ya later" guy than a "Goodbye Girl," and I have a feeling - although I don't anticipate returning for next year's regular season - that Marco and I might open to a regular post-season gig. Let's see what happens next. In the meantime, please accept a big thank you to the best readers on the Inter-Web who stuck with the us through all the highs and lows of the past three years. It feels really good to bounce back this year and finish on a high, leaving a wake of yet another dominant post-season. You're the best, guys and girls. 

At long last and with seemingly less hype (probably because I've been watching college and pro basketball rather than ESPN), Super Bowl XYZPDQ has finally arrived. While the Conference Championships left fans of deflation elated and other fans just plain deflated, the Super Bowl match-up is probably the one everyone was hoping to see. The new king of the castle, Russell Wilson, and his historically good defense goes up against former king, Tom Brady, and his historically good hair line.


Honestly, I don't even think I can sugarcoat this bad boy. To Marco and me, this is the biggest "Duh" in Super Bowl history. We are not fans of either team, we really have no horse in the race, which makes us confident that we're going to have our second straight 8-3 ATS post-season and bring The Spread Zone's Super Bowl record to 3-0 ATS. 

Let's just talk about the facts - or as we affectionately call them:

Twelve Reasons to take the 'Hawks

REASON #1: Two weeks ago Seattle had one of its worst fifty-six and half minute stretches they've had in the past two years.

REASON #2: New England is coming off one of the more convincing Conference Championship games in recent history.

REASON #3: The American public has the attention span of a goldfish with 71%+ backing New England in the wake of the Conference Championships. No way Vegas eats that much in losses. Anyone remember how Seattle was giving up 6 points/game prior to their mental lapse against Green Bay?

REASON #4: Favorites of less than 3 points in the Super Bowl are 3-8 ATS. Pats opened at -1.

REASON #5: In Conference Championship and Super Bowl rounds, teams coming off a 38+ point win at home are now 5-18-1 ATS. Again, this applies to New England.

REASON #6: Since 1978, defending champs who return to the Super Bowl are 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS.

REASON #7: Underdogs have covered 6 of the last 7 Super Bowls and won 4 of the last 5 SU.

REASON #8: In their 5 Super Bowl appearances under Belichick, New England is 1-4 ATS, covering only their first.

REASON #9: The Patriots are 1-4 ATS this year against top ten run defenses and 1-6 ATS against top ten run offenses. Guess who falls into both categories.

REASON #10: The Patriots are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on natural grass while the Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13.

REASON #11: If Marco can still play Madden with his recently dislocated shoulder - and boy can he - then you'd better believe Chancelor and Sherman will not be slowed by their injuries.

REASON #12: The 12th man travels.



The way we see it, this has all the makings of a repeat performance. Last year Denver arrived at the Super Bowl calm, cool, collected, convincing the world their offensive prowess would be enough to beat any team. That game ended in the first series. We don't think it will be that quick in Arizona, but rest assured the Seattle Seahawks defense will assert itself early and often into this game and by Sunday night everyone will be asking if this is the best defensive team the NFL has ever seen. It's as simple as Newton's first law of physics: An object in motion tends to stay in motion until it runs into a Seahawk.

PICKS: Seattle and the UNDER 47.5

May the Spread Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco


Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Picks: Conference Championships 2015

Season to Date: 47-41 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Playoffs: 6-2 ATS

So much for parity in the NFL this year. As we enter the Conference Championships we are left with the following:

1. The most storied franchise in football whose legendary coach has his name on the Super Bowl trophy.
2. The current team that not only holds said trophy but looks to be on their way to keeping it.
3. The most consistent team in football since the millennium.
4. The team that missed the playoffs once and received the best quarterback the league has seen #1 and #3 entered the league.

If there is a Cinderella at the ball this year, it's the Indianapolis Colts who entered the playoffs as an offensive powerhouse but have used terrific defensive performances to dismantle the Broncos and the Bengals. The Colts now head to Gillette Stadium to face the Patriots who are playing in their fourth consecutive Conference Championship but remain Super Bowl-less since 2003. In the NFC, we have the Legend of Boom and their pretty amazing big-play offense hosting the Green Bay Packers and their future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Were this game being played in Lambeau, it would be epic. In Seattle, we're not so sure. Let's get to the picks so I can hit the road and spend the weekend at Marco's rooting for the underdogs.

Conference Championship Picks 

So far Marco and I have picked 7 underdogs and 1 favorite. Dogs are 5-3 ATS, and since we nailed all five and the one fav, we're 6-2 ATS. Our strategy is not changing this week. If you're not sure which dog is going to cover, take both.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Bill Bellichick is 5-3 SU in championship games, but 3-5 ATS - keep in mind he's 0-5 ATS since his last Super Bowl. The Pats are also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24+ in the divisional round. This is looking great for Indy. Want some more confidence boosting stats? Conference championship teams off road wins preceded by home wins (Indy) are 8-4 SU/10-2 ATS since 1998, including 4-0 ATS as an underdog. PLUS - Andrew Luck is 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750. That's enough for us to say - Go Indy. Take the points, bet the money line, and watch a new era of QB take the reigns of the NFL. We also expect Indy's defense to earn another UNDER for totals bettors. Colts +7 and the UNDER.



Green Bay Packers (+7.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Every now and again Marco and I go with a heart pick over a head pick. There are really no good reasons to take Green Bay except - they're Green Bay, c'mon man, 60% of Aaron Rodgers is like 500% of 70% Cam Newton. Unfortunately, the Packers defense is like 30% of Carolina's. But let's ignore that. Green Bay has offensive weapons, and while the Panthers stayed in last week's game with their defense, the Packers should be able to put more points on the board. On a neutral field, Seattle's probably only 2 points better than GB. Five and half for home field advantage gives us some value on the dog. Let's not get into the fact that Seattle is undefeated against Super Bowl winning QBs since Carrol took the reins or the fact that they're the only team left in the playoffs to keep teams under 100 yards rushing/game or the fact that Russell Wilson is like 6,000 and 3 at home since arriving in the league. Let's just enjoy an instant classic as these two teams provide more points than anyone expected. Take Green Bay and the Over (as 10 of 15 championship games with a total set at 46+ have gone over). 




Good luck and May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Divisional Round Picks ATS: All Dogs All Day

Season to Date: 44-40 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

(Not So) Wild Card Weekend: 3-1 ATS

Oh the irony of sports gambling. If you look at last week's picks I believe my direct quote for the Arizona (+5.5) pick was "If we were ranking, this would be our number one pick." As it turns out, it was our only pick that went down in a blaze of the most un-glorious quarterback play I've ever seen. It's a good thing Ryan Lindley studied "back-up plans" at San Diego State.


...I'm better at than playing football. Oh good, sounds like he has options.

This week we hope to continue our historic post-season success with some intriguing divisional round match-ups. As mentioned, the Panthers won in dominant fashion and now head to Seattle with a five-game winning streak against a Seattle team on a six game win streak. Similarly, Sunday's NFC match-up boasts an undefeated road team in the Cowboys against an undefeated home team in the Packers. Awesome, right? And still no comments from our old friend MaChez. Where for art thou buddy? Meanwhile, over in the AFC we have a rivalry game between Joe Cool and just plain Cool along with a battle between former Colts vs future Colts legends. What a weekend. Let's get pickin'. For our good friend John M. and his pool, we're projecting the O/U's, too.

Saturday's Games

Baltimore Ravens (+7) over the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Talk about your definition of road warriors. Time and time again we've seen the Baltimore Ravens enter the playoffs as a lower seed and time and time again they find ways to get the W's. As the only road team to escape the Wild Card round, the Ravens now take their show to Gilette stadium where they face the New England Patriots. No doubt the Pats will be rested and ready, but if you watched Joe Flacco - with all the time in the world - throwing pretty spirals down the field against the Steelers, you can't pass up an entire touchdown. New England might advance, but we're predicting a score somewhere around 24-21. Take the RAVENS and the UNDER.



STAT BACKER: Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff road games while New England is 0-3 ATS in their last three playoff games against the Ravens, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games, and even 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games at home. So much for home field advantage.

Carolina Panthers (+11.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: A closer look at the Panthers recent win streak shows that they did it against teams with a combined 33-47 record while Seattle compiled theirs against almost all winning teams. Couple that with the fact that Cam Newton has only led one touchdown drive in his last against the 'Hawks and their defense (which has only given up 39 points in their past 6 games), and our Panthrers pick looks as bold as my aging head. Oh wait, that's bald. Nonetheless, eleven plus points in a playoff game between two teams that play tight defense and close games is too much to pass up. An early mistake or a well-designed opening drive (you know Seattle will defer if they win the toss) and we're looking at 18+. Take CAROLINA but fade the public, John M., and back the OVER. Seattle wins 28-17.



STAT BACKER: The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road playoff games. Who cares because this probably dates back to the Delhomme era. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games. We'll call that a wash and not remind you that the last six teams to finish the year under .500 and win a Wild Card game then lost in the divisional round by double digits. We think the trend continues, but we'll still win by half a point.

Sunday's Games

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Dallas Cowboys got that first round monkey off their backs thanks to their defense and a very questionable non-call by the referees. Nonetheless, they now pack that defense and hit the road where they haven't lost since last year. The Packers are a seemingly unstoppable force at home, but we think Dallas can keep up with them offensively and slow them down on offense. Back DALLAS and the UNDER here.



STAT BACKER: The Pack are always a big pubic play and this game is no exception. With 60% of the bets on Green Bay, the line has still dropped. We're rollin' with the sharps and the Cowboys 7-1 ATS road record.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over DENVER BRONCOS: That's right - all dogs this weekend. It's the football fans in us. We want close games and we believe we're going to get them. There is no quit in the Indy team, so at the very least we see this game being covered with a late back-door touchdown. Take the COLTS and the OVER (the public has this one right).



STAT BACKER: Peyton Manning is just 10-10 ATS in his last 20 post-season games and Denver is a paltry 1-4 ATS in their last 5.

Good luck and May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders
1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.

NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend Picks ATS

Man, how the mighty have fallen the past few weeks. After jumping out to an entirely unrealistic 9-2 ATS start with our number one picks along with a sizable cushion on our overall numbers, our final stats on our final season are as follows:

Season to Date: 41-39 ATS

Top Picks: 10-6 ATS

Fortunately, the post-season has always been kind to us here at TSZ. In fact, prior to our first season with TSZ, we rolled through the playoffs and into a New York Giants Super Bowl with a pool-winning 9-2 ATS record. It was the inspiration for the The Spread Zone and the beginning of a beautiful and bouncy three year relationship with blogging, betting, and bridging connections between gambler's around the world. During the past two post-seasons we were unable to match our initial success, but have yet to have a losing second season.

Wild Card Weekend Picks ATS

Truth be told, we've been watching so much college football I haven't had much chance to research picks or follow NFL story lines. What college ball has taught us, however, is that it's a great year to bet the underdogs and a better year to just watch some terrific football games. Let's hope the NFL matches up.

SATURDAY

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: Wow - talk about an overreaction to last week's drubbing of the Atlanta Falcons. This line is ridiculous. That was the Atlanta Falcons. They are the equivalent of a defensive sieve. The Cards defense will not only keep them in this game, but will remind Cam Newton that he's injured with an early sack or two. Don't be surprised if Superman sits out the second half out while the Cards win this one straight up. If we were ranking picks - this would be #1.



Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The history between these two teams has not been kind to the Ravens in the post-season, but if you look at the trends overall, they play close games. Granted the Steelers are now a pass-first team, but the injury of Le'Veon Bell will be just enough to keep the Ravens close. We'll take the points and won't be surprised if Joe Flacco has one of those games he's known for in the post-season.



SUNDAY

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals probably feel like they lucked out not having to play the Steelers again, but Luck will have something to say about that this weekend. This game will be over by halftime. Lay the points and watch the Bengals lay another post-season egg.



Detroit Lions (+7) over DALLAS COWBOYS: The 'Boys are going to make some noise this post-season, but the ghosts of Christmas past will haunt their nerves early and a couple of turnovers will allow the Lions to build a bit of a lead before Dallas comes back and wins and nail-biter in dramatic fashion. Take the points but don't bet the ML.



May the Spreads be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

Reminders

1. Check out our friends at 1Vice. Click on the icon to the right and tell them Vinny and Marco sent you. They have terrific bonuses, fast payouts, and excellent customer service.

2. It's not too late to send us coffee. We'll need caffeine for the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. It might even be a tax write off. Just click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and tell us you love us. We love you.