Friday, October 31, 2014

NFL Picks Week 9: Patriots vs Broncos ATS; Friday Five

Season to Date: 23-17 ATS or 58%

Top Picks to Date: 7-1 ATS or 88%

Once again, the minute the lines begin to look transparent, they become clouded by what we gamblers call Caninophilia - a deep and unrequited love with all things underdog. And by we gamblers I mean I just made that up and it's pretty dumb. Nonetheless, four such dogs led us to an inspired 5-0 ATS Week 7, which - being convinced that every dog has its day - led to us backing a whole pack of them last week. Sadly, it appears that we should have let sleeping dogs lie because they ended up biting the hand that fed them in the form of a 0-4 ATS Sunday. Fortunately, however, there's nothing like the hair of the dog that bit you, and we drank it up on Monday when our #1 pick - the Washington Redskins - not only covered the double digit spread but won the game in overtime. 

With Week 9 approaching, the dog days of autumn are upon us. Halloween is in our rear view mirror, Thanksgiving is on the horizon, and while we may not be the top dogs, our top picks certainly have Marco and I feeling like a couple of handicapping hot dogs. I'd write more on this ridiculous theme, but unfortunately I have an appointment to see a man about a dog. 

Forgive me. It's Halloween, it's been a long day, and this pirate and his whole pirate family are experiencing a collective sugar crash. Don't worry, glucose is an acceptable performance enhancing drug. Let's roll.

NFL Week 9 Friday Five Top Confidence Picks

#5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: Although the Bucs have been terrible, a closer look at their 1-6 record will reveal that 4 of their 6 losses have come by 6 points or less. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been better than usual overall and pretty darn good at home going 3-1 ATS this season. Conversely, Tampa Bay is on a 2-8 ATS run in their last 10, but the selling point here is their two covers came as road dogs. It's just too many points and we'll take e'm.  

"No silly, ATS covers are not wins." 

#4. MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5) over San Diego Chargers: After jumping out to an impressive ATS start, the Chargers and their leaky defense have come back down to earth losing their last three games against the number. Although they've proven to be an effective road team, going 6-2 ATS in their last 8, the Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. In a pick 'em of talent, we'll take the home field advantage and an overtime win by a field goal. Dolphins 20, Chargers 17.

#3. Saint Louis Rams (+10) over SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS: The NFL is so damn unpredictable. One minute the Rams are getting destroyed at home by the Niners, then  they're beating the Super Bowl champs, and a week after that they get trounced in Kansas City. Two things, however, remain the same - A) the Ram's show up to play every week and B) the Forty Niners suck coming out of the bye under Jim Harbaugh losing 3 of their last 4 with two of those losses coming against the Rams. Looks like easy money to us. 

#2. Denver Broncos (-3) over New England Patriots: Someone has to win this game, right? Why not the team with the better offense and defense? We think the line should be a little higher, but because of the Patriots historic home dominance and public backing it's only a field goal. The trend that matters in this game - Peyton Manning is 10-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3 or less since joining the Broncos.

#1 Pick: Our top confidence pick has quietly gone 7-1 ATS this season, which we believe is worth a cup of coffee. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:

1. Click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon to the right and make a donation of your choosing.
2. Send us the confirmation number to vinnyandmarco@gmail.comalong with the e-mail address you'd like your pick sent to.
3. Get our pick and receive all future picks by being added to our mailing list.
4. We will refund coffee donations of more than $25 if our pick does not cover* - that's how confident and fair we are.
*Minus Paypal service charge.

Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.

Vinny and Marco

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