Friday, October 17, 2014

NFL Picks Week 7: Chiefs vs Chargers ATS; Friday Five

Record to Date: 17-13 ATS

Last Week: "Humility is the solid foundation of all virtues." - Confucious
Translation: 1-4 ATS, but our #1 Jags pulled a dramatic, come-from-behind-didn't-win-but-back-door-cover for us in the final 30 seconds of our game bringing our top picks to...

Top Confidence Picks: 5-1 ATS

I know The Spread Zone is all about football (and sometimes basketball, hockey, World Cup soccer, Brazilian women's handball, and the occasional college football game - Where are you MaChez?), but as a lifelong and rabid San Francisco Giants baseball fan I would like us all to share a moment of celebratory silence while I scream a humble "F-------------K YEAAAAAAAAH" of gratitude at the top of my lungs.

Since our longtime reader, former hillbilly neighbor, and Los(t) Angeles Dodgers fan Bobby M. affectionately calls San Francisco the Va-Giants, I guess we are in the process of witnessing a genuine Va-Gianasty. Three World Series appearances in her life, and my daughter isn't even five years old yet. Talk about spoiled. As a nice addendum and human interest story, rumor has it Travis Ishikawa (who hit the walk-off homer to send us to the Series) was not only considering retirement earlier this season, but was also considering signing up to be a substitute teacher in Marco's school district. Now he'll never have to sub anywhere ever again, and may even get an ad spot with Sub-way. "You too can walk off the calories if you eat at..."

Coffee Thank You's: Imagine the biggest coffee you could ever order from Starbucks. No, not their chintzy, little Trenta iced beverage cup, but your own 64 ounce travel mug from 7-11 filled to rim with espresso shots, syrups, soy milks, caramel, whipped cream, and anything else they charge an arm and a leg for. Then imagine buying one for your buddy Marco and two decaf versions for your four and two year olds. Then imagine getting a bunch of change back for future purchases. That is the size of the thank you we are extending to Archie G. for his generous caffeine donation to the cause. Too bad we didn't drink those before making our picks last week. Thanks to Archie, however, we believe this week will be our best one yet. If you'd like to contribute to our winning ways or show your appreciation for our picks thus far, just click on Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon. We do this for the love of sports and betting, so no pressure.

NFL Week 7 Friday Five: Every Dog Has His Day

#5. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Houston Texans: The Steelers killed us last week, making it very clear they were not going to show up in Cleveland by the end of the third quarter. Hopefully for Pittsburgh, Morrissey was wrong and every day is not like Sunday - at least not last Sunday. Especially when it's Monday. The Texans come into this match-up as one of the darlings of the league, turning things around from their abysmal 2-14 2013. Their highly touted defense hasn't surrendered many points (20/game), but their pass defense ranks 28th in the league and Pittsburgh should have little trouble covering the small spread at home under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. Besides, they are 13-0 ATS at home off an SUATS division loss in which they allowed 30 plus points.  

#4. Miami Dolphins (+3) over CHICAGO BEARS: Miami seems like a good team to bet on as an underdog as they manage to keep games close. The Bears defense is still banged up, which should allow the Dolphins to work their magic and stick around. They gave the Packers a run for their money and will do the same with the Bears. Compelling and random stat to support our pick: When the Dolphins are playing as an underdog after losing two of their last three games and losing their last game by 3 points or less are 10-1-0 ATS. Now that's random number crunching you can bank on.

#3. Tennessee Titans (+5.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: This Halloween my family is dressing up like Jake and the Neverland Pirates, with yours truly as Captain Hook. I understand the big fuss about getting Washington to lose the mascot, but isn't it interesting that we celebrate/romanticize historic rapers and pillagers and nobody complains about the Bucs or the Raiders. Anyway, this is a match-up of two very average teams with pretty average personnel. The line is probably where it should be, but the compelling stat that supports our pick is the fact that the 12 under .500 teams in the NFL are currently 4-18 ATS as favorites. The Redskins are definitely one of those teams. Couple that with the fact that the Titans have only covered once and we'll grab those points every time.

#2. Kansas City Chiefs (+4) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: San Diego has been awesome at home this year and is heading into Week 7 with a 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS record. A closer look, however, and you'll notice their last three wins have come against the likes of Jacksonville, the NY Jets, and the Oakland Raiders - with combined records of 1-17. Meanwhile, the Chiefs come in rested and having played their last three games against Miami (W),  New England (W), and San Franciso (L). Andy Reid teams with rest are 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS. We like the Chiefs on the ML, but we'll take the points.

#1 Pick: Our top confidence pick has quietly gone 5-1 ATS this season, including a pick last week that no one believed in when we took the Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5. Now we really believe we have something worth trading for a Coffee for Vinny and Marco donation. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on our list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:

1. Click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon to the right and make a donation of your choosing.
2. Send us the confirmation number to along with the e-mail address you'd like your pick sent to.
3. Get our pick and receive all future picks by being added to our mailing list.
4. We will refund coffee donations of more than $25 if our pick does not cover* - that's how confident and fair we are.
*Minus Paypal service charge.

Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.

Vinny and Marco

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