Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Sweet 16 Picks: UCLA Florida Pick ATS and Oh So Much More

Four days into The Madness, and Marco and I are marching (see what I did there) into the Sweet Sixteen with an 8-4 ATS record. The breakdown of our One Tall (favorite) One Small (dog) One Bell of the Ball (Cinderella Candidate) was as follows:

Tall Picks: 3-1 ATS

Small Picks: 3-1 ATS

Ball Picks: 2-2 ATS

Not too shabby if I may say so myself. Unfortunately, our TSZ Bracket looks more like this:

BracketRankScoreBest Possible
N Machesney14679
Cam Potter34492
Todd Schneider34495
archibald glover54390
Vinny and Marco64091
Laura Zvaleuskas73773

"Don't worry dear, there's always the Sweet 16."
With only four games a day on the slate Thursday and Friday, we're going all in with either an ATS or an O/U pick for each game. Why the options? Because unlike any other sporting event, my giant love of the underdog interferes with my giant love of offering solid handicapping advice. Having the O/U gives my biased heart an out when it comes to picking some of the games. For example, my head says Florida Gators and their manly defense, but my lifelong UCLA-loving aorta says "Go Bruins." It could happen.

Here are our official picks for Thursday's action:

Dayton Flyers (+3) over Stanford Cardinal: I'm a Bay Area guy and at the very least a peripheral fan of almost all our local teams. I also dated a girl who went to Stanford and although things didn't end well, it's her who probably wouldn't bet on UC Davis rather than the other way around. While Dayton beat two solid/inconsistent teams in Ohio State and Syracuse, Stanford's road to the Sweet Sixteen was slightly more impressive as they knocked off the hot New Mexico Lobos and the championship contending Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, this game pits two teams playing with house money, and we have a feeling the Flyers will come out looser and force Stanford to play catch-up early. Take the points in the battle of Cinderellas.

Baylor Bears/Wisconsin Badgers Over 136.5: I'm not sure why, but I think I have something against Wisconsin. Maybe it's because it feels like Bo Ryan has been coaching them forever and that makes me feel old. Maybe I feel that way because he used to coach Milwaukee-Wisconsin, which sounds like it should be the same thing. Maybe it's because I confuse him with Buddy Ryan and that makes me think of Rex and Rob and I just get really annoyed by all of it. That being said, it felt too easy to take the Baylor Bears here. Wisconsin finds ways to win ball games, and when teams do that it generally means lots of free throws at the end. The Bears might cover, but these teams will definitely hit the OVER late.

UCLA  Bruins (+5.5) over Florida Gators AND the OVER 137: Screw it. I'm all in. I don't care if the ghosts of Al Horford, Taurean Green, Corey Brewer, and Joakim Noah suit up, I'm backing the Bruins to stun...and I mean STUN the Gators tonight by only losing by a shootout. That's as confident as I can get about this game. My real advice here - pass or roll with the OVER only.

San Diego State Aztecs (+7.5) over Arizona Wildcats: I'm a little nervous about this pick because the Aztecs can struggle offensively at times, which means they can't afford to dig an early hole. I do, however, believe in Steve Fisher's defense and combined with Arizona's the UNDER 122 is also an attractive bet. Generally when you see a total that low, they're baiting you to take the OVER. Statistically these teams are similar with SDST scoring 70 and holding their opposition to 56 and the Wildcats scoring and allowing a couple more (73/58). In a defensive battle like the one we'll see tomorrow, 7.5 points is like 20. Take 'em and run.

"What??? 122?? We can't score that many." 

Good luck as always, everyone.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

1 comment:

  1. You guys have been on a great run lately - I'll tail these picks. Let's keep the streak alive!!!