Elite Eight: Kentucky vs Michigan Pick ATS

This afternoon the clock struck midnight on yet another NCAA March Madness Cinderella story. The carriage became a pumpkin, the horses morphed back into mice, and the Dayton Flyers - in the face of the faster, stronger, better, and more experienced Florida Gators - turned back into a respectable mid-major that will ultimately never win a national championship - unless it's the NIT or the Insider Invitational or one of the other eight tournaments everyone else gets invited to for the sake of revenue.

It's a little sad to see that final real underdog leave the tournament, but the more painful truth might be that even fairy tales don't have fairy tale endings. All we know for sure is that the stories end when the couples - often young, naive adolescents who barely know each other - fall in love much too quickly and the credits roll with the promise of exciting futures and certain happiness. Three kids and thirty pounds later, there's no guarantee that glass slipper is going to fit Cinderella anymore, nor is it a lock that the prince is still charming his way through his forties. So long Dayton Flyers, you're better off anyway.


               "Goddamit. Not again."

Wisconsin pulled out both the cover and the upset win for us, proving once again that we are far better at picking winners than totals. Thanks to an Elite Eight split today, our records for The Madness stand at:

Team Picks: 14-5 ATS

Totals: 1-3

Sunday's action pits another two teams from The Big Ten and - spoiler alert - we like them both.

Michigan Wolverines (+2.5) over Kentucky Wildcats: The Wildcats have a huge advantage on the glass, but that will only help if Michigan misses their shots and so far the shots have been falling. Experience will prevail as the youth and inexperience finally catch up with the Wildcats in this one. Take the points, they're a gift.



Michigan State Spartans (-5.5) over Connecticut Huskies: This line looks to be inviting us to back the Huskies which is why we're rolling with MSU. The game will be close throughout, but it has a feel of one that will be just out of the Huskies grasp up until the end when free throws help the Spartans win by seven.



Good luck all. Enjoy the games - they should be good one.

Vinny and Marco

Elite Eight: Dayton vs Florida, Wisconsin vs Arizona Picks ATS

Well, well, well - now that was some serious, awe-inspiring, blood-pressuring raising, ignore your wife and kids until the final seconds ticked away March Madness. Four games decided by a total of 14 points, and all four underdogs coming away with the covers - two with the straight up wins. Had it not been for the free-throw-a-thon at the end of the UConn-Iowa State game killing the Under, our picks would have enjoyed a perfect sweep on the evening. As it was, we'll take the 3-1 record on the night and add it to our tournament totals, bringing us to:

Picks: 13-5 ATS

Totals: 1-2 

No time for small talk tonight, gotta rest up after five straight hours of mid-level anxiety so I can get up tomorrow and do it all over again. We're down to eight teams now, which means only two games on the schedule. Let's get to it.

Dayton Flyers/Florida Gators OVER 133: I'd love to take the Dayton Flyers almost as much as I'd love to be at the Miller household next Christmas when Sean (Arizona head coach) and Archie (Dayton head coach) get to regale each other with Sweet Sixteen victory stories. These two have become the Mannings or Harbaughs of college basketball. Actually, Sean's really more established, so they're more like the equivalent of baseball's legendary hitter George Brett (Hall of Famer) and less memorable brother Ken (.500 pitcher). 

  "A Flyer could totally beat a Wildcat." 

As I was saying, the Flyers are getting 10 points which seems like a lot, but I believe that Florida will take care of business and get to the Final Four in a comfortable rout. I just hate them too much to make it an official pick. So, I'm recommending the OVER 133. 

"Yeah, we covered the spread guys."

Wisconsin Badgers (+3) over Arizona Wildcats: There's something about these games between solid, disciplined teams in single-elimination, post-season battles where the prize is just within reach that seems to keep things close. This game will be no exception. In fact, whether you're taking the points or giving them up, the game will be in the balance until the final seconds. 

Best of luck as always,

Vinny and Marco

Sweet 16: Louisville vs Kentucky Pick ATS and Those Other Games

Let's make this quick, I'm busy drowning my sorrows in a cup of fresh Bruin pee. Damn Gators. I will forever loathe Florida and will do everything from this point on to demonstrate my hatred. In fact, as of today I am no longer going to watch CSI Miami, nor will you catch me drinking Gatorade, and never, ever again will I listen to a Donavan song while crocheting yamakas for Passover. Oh, and I already hated this guy.



Seriously, if my daughter turns to me in 14 years and says, "Dad, I'm going to the U of F," I'll invert those letters, say them right back in her face, and dump her college fund into my next football pool. Or dump her college fund on the Flordia Gators provided Billy Donovan is still coaching and is still using his template of giant, Cross Fit centers, lights out three point shooters, and the stingiest defense you'll find east of San Diego. F U U of F. I hope Dayton Crushes you...against the spread.



Thanks to not leaving out my heart pick, but including the Over in the UCLA/Florida game, our totals for the day were: 3-2 bringing our March Madness run down a bit but still at a respectable 11-6 ATS and O/Us. The breakdown is as follows:

10-5 ATS
1-1 O/U

Day two of the Sweet Sixteen has some intriguing match-ups, and once again Marco and I will endeavor to keep my heart out of it by taking a total along with a few ATS picks. If you want to hear our ATS picks on the other games, buy us a cup of coffee with the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button to the right and send us an e-mail at: vinnyandmarco@gmail.com. Or, and this is probably just as good an idea, you could buy yourself a cup of coffee, and when you get the change flip a coin and go with the team it tells you to take. We look out for our readers at The Spread Zone. Let's get to work.

Tennessee Volunteers (+3) over Michigan Wolverines: Here's the deal with this game. Marco hates Michigan and my late mother was born and raised in Knoxville Tennessee. That system is both untested and as a result undefeated, so we're rolling with the Vols. Actually, Tennessee is just plain hot, athletic, and a scary match-up for anyone. Do we think they get the straight up money line win? We do, but we'll take the points.



Kentucky Wildcats (+4) over Louisville Cardinals: The once dominant Louisville Cardinal squad has looked a bit vulnerable thus far in the tournament while the young upstarts from Kentucky are hitting their stride at the right time. I'm not a Calipari fan and I will be rooting for Louisville, but now I'll be rooting for them to win by 3. Chances are, this is the game of the day with Louisville's always impressive 40 minutes of hell defense against a Kentucky squad chalk full of kids who are probably going to be playing on Sundays next year. And Mondays, and whatever other days the NBA schedules games. Once again, take the points in what will undoubtedly be a buzzer-beater.



Virginia Caveliers (+2.5) over Michigan State Spartans: Yes, we know - another underdog, but this Virginia squad is for real. They can play with anyone defensively, and unlike the SD State Aztecs who lost this evening to Arizona, their offense is less anemic. Look for the Cavs to come out and stifle the Spartans, slow the game down, and wear them down over the course of the game.



UConn Huskies/Iowa State Cyclones UNDER 147: The Huskies play Under games and we believe in a game that might start out with some nerves, those first ten minutes will slow the scoring pace enough to keep this game under. We also believe it will be close enough at the end that the score won't get run up by additional free throws. Consider the Under.



I don't know if these guys still play for these teams, but imagine something very similar, and as always - best of luck today.

Vinny and Marco

Sweet 16 Picks: UCLA Florida Pick ATS and Oh So Much More

Four days into The Madness, and Marco and I are marching (see what I did there) into the Sweet Sixteen with an 8-4 ATS record. The breakdown of our One Tall (favorite) One Small (dog) One Bell of the Ball (Cinderella Candidate) was as follows:

Tall Picks: 3-1 ATS

Small Picks: 3-1 ATS

Ball Picks: 2-2 ATS

Not too shabby if I may say so myself. Unfortunately, our TSZ Bracket looks more like this:

Bracket	Rank	Score	Best Possible
Manny	1	46	103
N Machesney	1	46	79
Cam Potter	3	44	92
Todd Schneider	3	44	95
archibald glover	5	43	90
Vinny and Marco	6	40	91
Laura Zvaleuskas	7	37	73

  

"Don't worry dear, there's always the Sweet 16."
With only four games a day on the slate Thursday and Friday, we're going all in with either an ATS or an O/U pick for each game. Why the options? Because unlike any other sporting event, my giant love of the underdog interferes with my giant love of offering solid handicapping advice. Having the O/U gives my biased heart an out when it comes to picking some of the games. For example, my head says Florida Gators and their manly defense, but my lifelong UCLA-loving aorta says "Go Bruins." It could happen.

Here are our official picks for Thursday's action:

Dayton Flyers (+3) over Stanford Cardinal: I'm a Bay Area guy and at the very least a peripheral fan of almost all our local teams. I also dated a girl who went to Stanford and although things didn't end well, it's her who probably wouldn't bet on UC Davis rather than the other way around. While Dayton beat two solid/inconsistent teams in Ohio State and Syracuse, Stanford's road to the Sweet Sixteen was slightly more impressive as they knocked off the hot New Mexico Lobos and the championship contending Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, this game pits two teams playing with house money, and we have a feeling the Flyers will come out looser and force Stanford to play catch-up early. Take the points in the battle of Cinderellas.



Baylor Bears/Wisconsin Badgers Over 136.5: I'm not sure why, but I think I have something against Wisconsin. Maybe it's because it feels like Bo Ryan has been coaching them forever and that makes me feel old. Maybe I feel that way because he used to coach Milwaukee-Wisconsin, which sounds like it should be the same thing. Maybe it's because I confuse him with Buddy Ryan and that makes me think of Rex and Rob and I just get really annoyed by all of it. That being said, it felt too easy to take the Baylor Bears here. Wisconsin finds ways to win ball games, and when teams do that it generally means lots of free throws at the end. The Bears might cover, but these teams will definitely hit the OVER late.



UCLA  Bruins (+5.5) over Florida Gators AND the OVER 137: Screw it. I'm all in. I don't care if the ghosts of Al Horford, Taurean Green, Corey Brewer, and Joakim Noah suit up, I'm backing the Bruins to stun...and I mean STUN the Gators tonight by only losing by 3...in a shootout. That's as confident as I can get about this game. My real advice here - pass or roll with the OVER only.



San Diego State Aztecs (+7.5) over Arizona Wildcats: I'm a little nervous about this pick because the Aztecs can struggle offensively at times, which means they can't afford to dig an early hole. I do, however, believe in Steve Fisher's defense and combined with Arizona's the UNDER 122 is also an attractive bet. Generally when you see a total that low, they're baiting you to take the OVER. Statistically these teams are similar with SDST scoring 70 and holding their opposition to 56 and the Wildcats scoring and allowing a couple more (73/58). In a defensive battle like the one we'll see tomorrow, 7.5 points is like 20. Take 'em and run.


"What??? 122?? We can't score that many." 

Good luck as always, everyone.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco