NFL Picks Week 17: Packers vs Bears ATS, Predictions, and More

NFL Picks Week 17: Packers vs Bears ATS, Predictions, and More

The Packers are 3-point road favorites against their division rival Chicago Bears.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Possibly the most enticing matchup of this week’s lineup, we have the 7-7-1 Packers traveling to take on the 8-7 Chicago Bears in a winner-take-all NFC North Championship Game.  Literally everything has gone the Packers way to keep them in the playoff race, and with Rodgers returning we should have a hell of a game this weekend.  I bet NBC is wishing they hadn’t jumped the gun and flexed the Romo-less Cowboys into the night game…

The Spread

The linemakers see the Packers as three point road favorites with Rodgers returning and expect a high scoring affair.  The total is set at 53.

Green Bay Packers

The wait is over! After seven weeks of the Packers proving they learned nothing from the Favre fiasco in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has finally been cleared to play. The Packers went 2-5-1 without Rodgers and those two wins were comeback wins of 1 point.  Somehow, thanks to Jim Schwartz and Mathew Stafford, the Packers have only won two games since October by a total point differential of 2 points yet can still make the playoffs and host a home game.  The NFL really is the best reality show.

Rodgers is returning at a perfect time and might just get lucky enough to get his most versatile weapon, Randall Cobb, back in the mix as well.  Rodgers’ absence has allowed rookie RB Eddie Lacey and the Packers to move up to seventh in the league in rushing, but the defense is the real issue.  Dom Capers’ D has tanked since Rodgers went out and just lost star OLB Clay Matthews (likely for the season).  His loss won’t be as bad as people think, but the secondary will need to learn how to tackle and stop big plays quickly with Chicago’s dangerous trio of receivers on the plate for Sunday.

Chicago Bears

The Bears weren’t immune to their own QB issues this year and have themselves quite the dilemma.  Playing in relief of Jay Cutler, backup QB Josh McCown played admirably but was replaced once Cutler was healthy.  Cutler played well the first game but the Bears offense was atrocious against the Eagles last week, scoring a measly 11  points while the D gave up 54.  The Packers’ D isn’t as good as the Eagles’ but there will be some uproar if receivers Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall are shut down again with Cutler at the helm.  If they can figure things out Cutler could have a huge day and make himself a lot of money.

Like the Packers, the Bears D is playing absolutely terrible as well, especially against the run where they rank dead last.  They gave up almost 200 yards to the Packers last time out but will fortunately have Lance Briggs back in the mix to slow things down.  Injuries have really ravaged the Bears on the defensive side of the ball and with Rodgers back behind center they will need to hope Cutler can keep pace.

Prediction

Although Rodgers is returning and should provide a boost to this team, both mentally and physically, the real important factors here are Eddie Lacey, James Starks, and Randall Cobb. The first two have developed in to one of the best 1-2 punches in the league over the last month and if Lacey can deal well with his ankle injury they will have a field day against Chicago’s D.  Randall Cobb, who has been out even longer than Rodgers with a broken leg, is that speedy x-factor that can be a RB or WR, taking handoffs, dump-offs or deep crosses over the middle.  If he is close to full speed he gives the ailing Bears D one more weapon to try and account for.

Cutler has also been historically bad against the Packers, going 1-8 against them, including the final game and NFC championship in the 2010 season.  Against Green Bay, Packers cornerbacks and safeties become Bears receivers and that won’t work well against a potentially lethal Packers offense.  He will need to hope Mike Neal doesn’t play well in place of Matthews so he has some time to find the actual Bears receivers.

Packers win 41-34.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears
OVER 53