NFL Picks Week 14: Seahawks vs Niners Pick ATS, Predictions for All Sixteen Games

I don't know about you, but I've been dragging my feet this week. December is upon us, my real job has picked up immensely, plus with Thanksgiving break behind us I'm back to solo parenting by day and working by night. There is nothing, however, like a 27 point come-from-behind victory to light a fire under my ass and get me in front of a keyboard.



Two nights ago (when I started this post), my recently beloved Golden State Warriors trailed the Toronto Raptors by seventeen points after one quarter of play, seventeen at halftime, and 27 three minutes into the third quarter. That's when the Warriors - who were favored by 7.5 points - started to chip away, chip away, play defense, sink a three, grab a rebound, play some more defense. By the fourth quarter the lead was down to 18 and with three minutes to go the Warriors took their first lead of the game 101-99. After that, they not only won the game but covered the line in a 112-103 victory. Fortunately for me, I had the OVER 201 and could relax and enjoy what turned out to be the 7th largest comeback in NBA history. Pretty cool stuff, Marco. Thanks for converting me. I seriously hope you didn't turn off the TV at halftime because you needed "sleep" for your "job."

Now let's get back to Football with our Week 14 Picks Against the Spread. Last week we managed to eke out our fourth consecutive +.500 week and Marco and I are feeling the momentum as we had towards the playoffs. Here's what recent history looks like at The Spread Zone.

Last Week: 8-7-1 ATS; Over/Under also 9-7 ATS

Since Week 10: 34-20-4 ATS

2013 Over/Under Record: 110-81 or 58% - Not great, but we'll take it. 



Because there are some exciting, playoff-defining games on the schedule this week, Marco and I would like to take a moment to remind you all that NFL handicapping and fantasy football playoffs do not mix. If you do end up making your picks with any consideration for you how you hope your fantasy team performs this week and it all blows up in your face, fear not there is a support group for that - it's called EVERYONE and they meet at the bar. Never more than this time of year do I adhere to TSZ's Gambling Tip #1 that friends don't let friends gamble alone. Marco and I know each other's blind spots, we've seen each other's fantasy rosters, and we don't let each other get away with anything. That being said, if you need more of a reason that the Saints are going to dominate the Panthers this weekend than Brees and Graham being top three picks on our respective teams, then you'll have to look elsewhere.

As always, we love our picks bold and our HOMERs in CAPS. Here are our Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread for every game.

Thursday Night Football

Houston Texans (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Two weeks ago week took the Houston Texans to cover a double digit line at home against this very same Jaguars team. Jacksonville embarrassed the Texans 13-7 and are now on a two-game winning streak heading into this match-up. Meanwhile, after competing with (and losing to) the Patriots last weekend, Houston has now lost 10 in a row. We still don't think enough has changed in two weeks to change our minds about these two teams to switch sides. Nobody wants the Sacko trophy, so this game suddenly has added meaning with the winner taking pole position for third place in the AFC South. Also, couple the fact that the Jags are 0-4 SU/ATS at home this season (averaging 7 points/game) with the fact that teams with sub-.250 winning percentages who are favored on the road after Week 9 are 6-2 SU/ATS and we like our chances with the all of the Texans playing for both revenge and their future jobs. Although MaChez makes some excellent points in his preview of this game, we're giving you the complete opposite option here. We'll take the field goal and because he's been great of late we'll take Joe Duffy of Offshore Insider's advice and roll with the OVER.


Sunday Morning Football

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: How tired RG3 must be of post-game comments like, "I love my teammates because they never give up..." and "we just have to keep practicing and getting better..." and "I don't see us as a 3-6 (insert 3-7, 3-8, 3-9) team..." Well, hopefully he can muster up one more "3-10, still fighting, God something, what  the F do you want me to say up here" soundbite, because the losing will continue this weekend when Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs look to improve to 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS this season against his former division. The Chiefs need a win. The Redskins need a lottery linebacker. End of story. We'll take the Chiefs and the UNDER 45. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7) over Minnesota Vikings: Unless it's against the AFC East (or Green Bay with a healthy Aaron Rodgers), Baltimore not only wins their home games but they do it convincingly. If you can get your hands on their defense in fantasy football, do it. This is a much more important game to the Ravens who put themselves back in the playoff picture with a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. The Vikings are in such bad shape, their fans have been starting rumors that the reason Josh Freeman isn't starting is because he looks so good in practice, the Vikings don't want the rest of the NFL to find out for fear it will drive his off-season price up. Look for Baltimore to take control defensively early and for Flacco and Co. to do more than enough to cover the touchdown in another ugly UNDER 42.5.



NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13) over Cleveland Browns: As long as Brandon Weeden is still the quarterback for the Browns, I'm putting money on the O/U interceptions. As for the game, we think Belichick will have a plan for Josh Gordon, so if it looks like you'll be playing against me in the fantasy championship game three weeks from now - Jim Muto - you might want to shut him down for the season. Seriously, though - New England is a team that has gotten better every week. Back in their cozy, home fines, we see a dominating performance on both sides of the ball. The final score of 45-17 will more than cover the spread and give us the OVER. 

Oakland Raiders (+3) over NEW YORK JETS: Oh how quickly the Jets have fallen from the graces of handicappers, loyal fans, and people who enjoy watching good football. Maybe Laura's Over/Under 5 wins was more accurate than we thought 3 weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Oakland Raiders continue to be a cellar dwelling/ATS Covering Juggernaut. I believe they are now 8-4 ATS, and although many of those were larger lines earlier this year, the play of their defense and their back-up to the back-up QB Matt McGloin has them heading towards the non-existent ATS playoffs. Take the points and watch the Raiders pull out the road win and the UNDER 40.5.



Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: This was our stretch of the week game. The Colts are the new Falcons and Texans and Redskins where every week we say, "They're better than that." Last week, at least defensively, they showed us that they were. Remember when Indy shut down the passing attack of the Broncos and gave them their first loss? And by shut down I mean gave up 33 points and 450 yards of offense en route to victory. Look for a similar result in Cincinnati but probably a three-point loss this team. Take the points and the OVER 43.

Detroit Lions (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Here's the pre-game conversation between Nick Foles and Matthew Stafford.

Matthew: Seriously? Nineteen touchdowns and no interceptions?
Nick: Yep. I've tried - I just don't know how to throw interceptions.
Matthew: Ohhhh, it's really easy. I'll show you how.

During the game, Matthew proceeds to throw three interceptions from different angled arm slots and spots the Eagles a couple of touchdowns before he and Calvin Johnson go nuts and remind us all that bad defense is the main reason the Philly Kool Aid isn't ready for consumption. As the game winds down, Nick finally understands how Matthew does it and although he has broken Petyon Mannning's consecutive TDs without an INT to start the season record by then, his first interception proves to be enough to get the Lions the cover and the win. Take the field goal, the life lessons, and the OVER 54. 


     "Intercept this Philadelphia."


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Miami Dolphins: When I'm at work all day like I was yesterday, I have the good/misfortune of listening to sports radio for several consecutive hours. Yesterday that meant hearing the numbers 153 million dollars ad nauseum with regards to the Ellsbury Doughboy signing by the New York Yankees. Apparently Boston fans have affectionately nicknamed hime Jacoby DLsbury, so they probably don't care, and by the end of the day neither did I. The other thing I had to hear that was almost as insane as that seven-year contract was a Pittsburgh fan (who sounded pretty drunk) arguing that his Steelers are the only team in the NFL that could stop the Seahawks from winning the Super Bowl. We'll never know, unless we pretend the Dolphins are the Seahawks and watch the Steelers beat them by 10 this weekend. Give up the field goal and take the OVER 41. 

TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills: Over the course of the second half of the season, the Tampa Bay Bucs have to receive consideration for most improved team in the league. Sure they got routed by Carolina last weekend, but up until the unfortunate Mike Glennon pump fake/fumble in the red zone, Tampa Bay was competing in that game. Buffalo on the other hand should have won their game three or four times before eventually handing it to the visiting Atlanta Falcons. We'll back the Bucs and we anticipate the OVER 43 as both young QBs have been consistently putting up solid numbers. 

Atlanta Falcons (PK) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: There is no line out for this game, so we're going to play it safe and assume that Aaron Rodgers will not be starting on Sunday. We know the Atlanta Falcons defense is as porous as the bad guy from Grease's face, but Matt Flynn just might be the worst quarterback to ever play for four different teams simultaneously. If you can't beat out rookies in training camp, you can't beat Matt Ryan in an off year. I think it's about time Matt "Flynn" decides whether he wants to be an actor or a football player, because acting like a football player just isn't cutting it. Do what you will, but we'll take the Falcons and the OVER. 



Sunday Afternoon Football

Tennessee Titans (+12.5) over DENVER BRONCOS: Mile High letdown coming up on Sunday in Denver. Even after their loss to the Indianapolis Colts last weekend, the 5-7 Tennessee Titans are still on the cusp of the AFC playoff race, while the 10-2 Denver Broncos are coming off of three high-intensity, division determining, playoff-shaping games with the Chiefs, Patriots, and Chiefs. We're going to take the almost two touchdowns, reminding readers that the Titans were able to cover a very similar spread in Seattle a few weeks back. Take the points and always the OVER when it comes to the Broncos.



St. Louis Rams (+6.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: Last week I boasted that Fisher was 7-2 ATS against the NFC West since arriving in St. Louis. After losing SU/ATS to San Francisco last weekend, I'd now like to boast Fisher's still excellent and much easier to convert into a percentage 7-3 ATS record against his division foe's since the beginning of last season. The Cardinal defense has been a pleasant surprise to Arizona fans, and overall they are a terrific home team. We just think that playing them after playing the Niners will feel like a breath of just enough fresh air to lose by six. Take the points and the OVER. 

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) over New York Giants: Just so you know, Marco has Victor Cruz, I have Hakeem Nicks, and we're still going with the Chargers this weekend. Let's face it, the AFC is like basketball's Eastern Conference. Good effort will probably get you into the playoffs. Much like the Titans and nine other teams, San Diego is right there. The Giants will put up a good fight, but mostly they'll be practicing their upcoming vacation on the warm beaches of southern California. Chargers win a defensive battle 21-17, UNDER the total.


         "Mr. December is back, baby."

Seattle Seahawks (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS: If you're a fan of football and heated rivalries, clear your schedules Sunday afternoon because this should be a good one. I'm not sure how this isn't more of a pick'em considering the Seahawks recent domination of the Niners. Granted the past two games were in Seattle, but prior to that it was Alex Smith who beat Seattle three straight times before losing his job to Kaepernick who hasn't looked good against the 'Hawks at all. If San Francisco finds a way to win this game it will probably be 12-10 or 16-14 or 3-2, so we'll take the field goal and the UNDER.



NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers: If you're a fan of football and heated rivalries...oh wait, I already used that lead in. Seriously, though, nice to have back-to-back stellar games on the schedule. This one is even more important that the Niners-Seahawks because the winner will take a solid one-game/tie-breaker lead in the NFC South. The Panthers have looked amazing this year, and as their eight-game winning streak has stretched into this week, their offense is finally catching up with their defense. The Saints, however, even in the wake of the Monday Night meltdown against the Seahawks, are not a team we will bet against at home. If it's close late, we just count on one of the gambling refs to call a ridiculous roughing the quarterback penalty on the Panthers. We like the Saints and the Prime Time Drew Brees/Cam Newton OVER 45.5.



CHICAGO BEARS (-1) over Dallas Cowboys: This game is no Sunday afternoon/evening game, but it's important nonetheless. With playoff implications on the line and little to no line depending on when you check vegasinsider.com, we'll take the home team against Tony NoMo (wins now that it's December). We're making this pick in part expecting the Eagles to lose, removing the must-win pressure that might swing our vote here. Instead, the Bears will be the ones playing for their playoff lives, so we'll roll with the under-valued home team and a slight lean towards the UNDER 49.5.



Those, my friends, are our stories and we're sticking to them. Unless of course Aaron Rodgers plays, and then we'd like you to give us a pass on the Atlanta Falcons pick.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

PS Expert Grid will be posted soon.