Saturday, November 22, 2014

NFL Picks Week 12: Broncos vs Dolphins ATS - Friday Five

Season to Date: 32-23 ATS (58%)

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 9-2 ATS (82%)

The unbelievable run of #1 picks continues at TSZ. Once again, gambling is akin to dating. When you're in a relationship, it's easy to flirt and get phone numbers because there's nothing to lose. In fact, in some demographics, married makes you even more attractive because there's nothing to lose on the other side. When you're single, however, and forced to play the game, take risks, and get rejected it's a whole other ballgame. Similarly, when Marco and I were in the game last season, "investing" money for our friends, we were broke by Week 9. This year, however, when we're just picking games with nothing at stake, we can apparently get whatever we want. Favorite, dog, home, away, hot, ugly, our number one picks keep on hitting. It's another classic "If Only..." tale of a degenerate gambler. 

This week Marco and I tried a new "system." Most of our systems are the same and have nothing to do with those fancy things called "computer programs" (whatever that is), and most hinge of efficiency, dialogue, and a rudimentary knowledge of sports, psychology, and the gambling industry. This week, the summation of that was a game we call "Like, Love, or Pass." We just went down the list and said one of those words. When we had a like or love in common, that became a game for discussion. The rest went by the wayside. Here are this week's Friday Five

Friday Five Week 12 

#5. Cleveland Browns (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS: That's right, we're going back to the brown water well. What? Against the first place Atlanta Falcons? Yes, against the first place 4-6 Atlanta Falcons. They will have no answer for the return of Josh Gordon which will open up the field for Cleveland. Take the points. 

#4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5) over St. Louis Rams: Over-hyped versus Over-due. The Rams defense looks great, but there has to be a letdown after what equated to the Ram's Super Bowl last week when they knocked off the Broncos at home. The Rams are over-valued in this spot. Give up the points and take the UNDER, too if you're a totals bettor.

#3. Tennessee Titans (+11) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Could this be an over-valued Monday Night team versus an undervalued blown-out team? It certainly could, but we've seen enough of the Titans defense and enough of Zack Mettenberger to believe this game will stay within a touchdown. Take eleven and get some change. 

#2. DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5) over Miami Dolphins: Not enough points to back the Dolphins against what will be an angry. Peyton Manning is 7-1 with the Broncos after a loss and they've covered six of those games. That's enough for us. 

#1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) over CHICAGO BEARS: The return of Lovie is all we need to take the Bucs to cover here. The Bears should not be favored by this many over anyone, especially when the Bucs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Chicago, while the Bears are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. The weather will be terrible, points will be at a premium, so we'll take almost a touchdown all day long.

Sorry so short, but family obligations.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco#5. 


  1. I will be giving 1 guaranteed lock for the rest of the season. So if you want to win money, bet the farm on my locks. Dallas Cowboys -3.5 @N.Y. Giants. Seriously, I will give you gamblers free money!

  2. Dallas by at least 10!

  3. I just pulled out another mortgage....cowboys giving the points....thanks for the guarentee


  4. Nice to see some action at TSZ again. Mysterio, Potski - thanks for stopping by.


  5. V & M,

    Long time since I posted....been the craziest year of my life but I'm still checking on y'all's picks and reading your posts. Y'all are doing well this rid of the pressure...LOL

    Mysterio's pick isn't looking too good at half...Beckmann's catch was sick!!!!! Incredible.

    Go Broncos!
    Texas Todd

    1. Hey Todd,

      The gang's all here. Now we just need to get Nick, Laura, and Kyle, and we'll have a reunion. Great to hear from you. Terrible week, but great year. As for Mysterio - that's football. When things look great, pick the other team. Let's catch up via e-mail soon.