NFL Picks Week 3: Packers vs Lions ATS

As many of you know, for the past three years I've enjoyed a luxurious sabbatical from education as a stay-at-home parent. Early on there were times, sleep-deprived, decorated in spit-up and urine, that the honor felt a dubious one, but as the weeks and months passed, I quickly grew to appreciate the serenity of having only one child to worry about. Would it surprise anyone to know that I loved her so much I blogged about her?



That's right, before The Spread Zone took the Internet by light drizzle, there was a parenting blog that - although almost as much fun to write - never garnered quite the same attention because:

A) new parents don't have time to read.
B) once you become a parent, you no longer give a crap about other people's kids.
C) who cares about anything when the game's on.
D) all of the above.



Instead of the encouraging e-mails we get from readers today complimenting our style and asking for more picks, I got ones that read, "Hey Vinny, I'd really like to read your blog but your posts are so freakin' long. Maybe you could make them shorter and more to the point. Or add more pictures. Love, Dad."

Then there was the picture issue. When my wife found out I was posting photos on the Internet, I received a lecture about pedophiles in Texas, blah, blah, blah. I'm not sure why she chose Texas, but the more I tell this part of my story, the larger the imaginary population of pedophiles in Texas becomes. Ignoring my dad but accommodating my wife, I began to have even more fun with the blog, writing even longer posts about my beloved 2010 San Francisco Giants and their first World Series run.

I guess I'm just reminiscing a bit this morning because the stay-at-home dad party is over. Sorry Texas, you'll have to get your Jonothan Sanchez/baby hybrid photos elsewhere. As of a month ago, I'm back the crazy world of education with a whole bunch of other people's kids to worry about, and a whole bunch of other people's parents to be annoyed with. The emotional learning curve of returning to this world has been a steep one (stories coming soon), and although I was reticent to start up TSZ again, I'm grateful I did because it's like a mini-vacation every time I sit down at the keyboard.



Help Vinny and Marco Out By:

A) Placing your wagers with 1Vice. Click on the link to the right and give them your due diligence. If you sign up right now they're offering 150% free play bonus, a free $50 wager on tonight's NCAA UConn Huskies/South Florida game, and 40% gambler's insurance on your net losses during the month of September. How does that help us? We're not sure yet because nobody has done it, but we'll let you know.

B) Old school, straight-up coffee donations by clicking the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button. We don't expect fronts, but if you like what we're doing or you do well with our picks this Sunday, come on back and say thanks in the form of caffeine.

C) Comments, comments, comments. Let's help each other out. Post the picks you like below and tell us why you like them. Now let's get to the Friday Five

NFL Week 3 Friday Five

Last Week's Record: 2-3 ATS (boo)

Season to Date: 5-5 ATS (too early to cheer or boo)

Top Confidence Picks: 2-0 ATS (thank you Dolphins and Texans)

5. Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over DETROIT LIONS: Could be a bit of a trap line, but there's no good reason not to take the road dogs here. The only time the Packers didn't cover in their last 6 trips to the Motor City was when Aaron Rodgers was on the sideline last Thanksgiving. That's the type of ownage we'd back if they were favorites, so take the gift of points and sprinkle a little green (bay) on the money line, too.



4. Chicago Bears (+3) over NEW YORK JETS: The Chicago Bears shocked the Forty Niners in their new stadium/home opener last week while the Jets gave the Packers a run for their money at Lambeau. Although we have concerns about the Bears run defense and the fact that the Jets are tough match-up at home, we like Gino Smith to keep Chicago in the game with some untimely INTs. Take the road dog again.



3. San Diego Chargers (+2.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: I know, I know - why don't we take a home team already. Here's why. The Buffalo Bills are an astonishing 2-22 ATS in their last 24 games after playing Miami. Couple that with the fact that the San Diego Chargers have proven they can play in hostile road environments, and we'll take our chances with another dog.



2. Dallas Cowboys (-1) over ST LOUIS RAMS: If it weren't for the fact that I don't give a crap, I might actually feel sorry for the Rams. This was supposed to be the Sam Bradford and the Rams breakthrough year where they put the pieces together and make a run at the playoffs. Instead, it's Sam Bradford's surgeons who get to do that (again) sans aforementioned post-season play. It's too bad, really. I like Jeff Fisher (Rams coach), I like my brother Jacob (Rams fan), and I like most Aries (Rams astrologically), but what I don't like are low-scoring games (Rams offense) or Dodge (Ram) trucks. Although the Cowboys have been a paltry 8-18 SU in their last 26 following a straight-up win, we'll take this Dallas team to buck that trend and come out of STL with a win and a cover. Dallas is the play.



1. CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Tennessee Titans: Finally, our first home team in two weeks. The Cincinnati Bengals have quietly rattled off 10 of 11 ATS covers at home dating back to the beginning of last season. Even if A.J. Green doesn't play this weekend, there is value on the Bengals to cover the spread. We look to go 3-0 ATS with our number one picks. Take the Bengals to continue their home field dominance.



Time to head back to the mines (of education). Good luck as always and...

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

PS A parting shot of my daughter AmarI dunking on the other most famous Amar'E:



PSS I might find the time to write a bonus post tomorrow, but if I don't and you're interested in some compelling stats re the games in New England, Cleveland, and Seattle, shoot us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com and join our community. I'll send the stats out to the regular readers tomorrow.