With the 2013-14 NFL season coming to a climactic end, we have two stellar weeks of playoff-defining, draft pick determining, job securing/shaking football games on the schedule. With only four of twelve playoff spots secured, fourteen teams are still in the post-season hunt, which means there are tons of exciting/ heroic/ disappointing/ unrealistic/ fantastical story lines to follow as the Sunday and Monday games unfold.
Keep in mind, however, that we were probably in the exact same boat last year, and the year before that, and the year before that...so no matter how much you believe your Ravens or Dolphins are a team of destiny or your Cowboys and Lions are teams of history, there are still 120 minutes of football to be played and neither the past nor the future has anything to do with what's going to happen when those strange, misshapen balls hit the turf on Sunday.
Last week Marco and I sized up the Week 15 schedule and said to ourselves and anyone willing to read our nonsense, "Straight Dogs, Homie," which ultimately made us look like temporary geniuses when the Baltimore Ravens covered and won Monday night, elevating our totals to:
Week 15 Record: 10-5-1 ATS; 7-9 O/U
Week 14/15 Friday Five Record: 8-1-1 ATS (Find out how to get this week's picks below)
Record Since Week 10: 51-34-5 ATS
To be honest, Week 16 looks like the polar opposite of last, and although it might be safer to go straight favorites, we think that would be too obvious in the wake of an underdog heavy week. While only 5 home teams covered last week, 4 of them were home dogs, which means only 1 of 7 home favorites covered. That's pretty remarkable. This week, however, we believe there are some strong road dogs and some even stronger home favorites to consider. Let's get to work.
BUFFALO BILLS (+2.5) over Miami Dolphins: Man, what a great story that Miami Dolphins team is - scraping their way back from the oxymoronic Public Incognito scandal and into the playoff mix. But you know what else was a good story? The Sixth Sense, and at the end - much like we'll learn about the Dolphins this weekend - the main character was dead all along. Buffalo plays tough at home, and although EJ Manuel is out for this Sunday's game, the Bills will just run the ball all over Maimi, setting up the play-action for back-up third-year QB Thad Lewis who already beat the Dolphins 23-21 earlier this year. Buffalo is 8-3 ATS as home dogs recently and although Miami is 5-1 ATS the past two Decembers we'll take the points here and the UNDER (43) which has hit in 8 of Miami's last 9 division games.
New Orleans Saints (+3) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: If the Carolina Panthers win the Super Bowl this year I owe my psychic mother-in-law dinner at the fanciest restaurant in town because she predicted it last season when they were mired in a season-ending losing streak. "There's something about that shade of blue, Vinny..." If they just make the playoffs, it's breakfast at Denny's, so this game might be a bit of a blind spot for me. Interestingly, although it's no secret the Saints suck on the road this year, on natural grass away from the Superdome the Saints have actually won their last two games. The stats simply don't support this pick, but sometimes they are so lopsided you have no choice but to oppose them. In this case, Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games, the Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, and the UNDER has gone 6-1 in New Orleans last 7 division games. For all of those reasons, we're taking the points, the Saints, and the OVER 46.5 because that's just way shit works sometimes.
"I prefer my road grass natural if you know what I mean."
Dallas Cowboys (-3) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: I don't know why everyone is making such a big deal about Dez Bryant leaving last week's loss to the Packers a few seconds early when the Cowboys' entire defense left at halftime. This story is almost as redundant as Groundhog's Day, but eventually Bill Murray breaks the spell and finishes the day the way it was intended and we believe this Cowboys team can do just enough to win this division, secure Jason Garrett's job, and continue their pursuit of terminal mediocrity for another half decade. The Redskins have owned the Cowboys of late going 6-1 ATS while the Boys are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Washington. Conversely, the Skins suck as home dogs winning only 3 of their last 13 and Dallas has owned the NFC Least this year with a 4-0 SU/ATS mark. What does it all mean? It means that counting on either one of these defenses is like trying to catch rain with a sieve, so we'll take the more experienced QB to cover the field goal with a last-minute touchdown in an OVER 53 shootout.
Tampa Bay Bucaneers (+5.5) over SAINT LOUIS RAMS: The Rams look like they're making a push for the 2014-15 playoffs by making sure teams know they're capable of defending their home turf. Since their bye week, the Rams haven't just been winning home games, they've been dominating them, taking out the offensive powerhouse Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints. They're no Greatest Show on Turf, but if you like sacks, pick sixes, and enough offense to win and cover games, then St. Louis has been money. Keep in mind, however, that the Bears defense is awful and the Saints can't play on the road. Do you know what can play on the road? The Bucs defense. Sure they lost to Carolina and San Francisco, but those are two playoff-bound teams. The Rams are not and are ripe for a letdown this week. We'll take the points and run with the OVER 43 which has hit in the Rams last 6 home games.
Chicago Bears (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Both of these teams need this game equally to continue their pursuit of their respective division titles, so let's throw out motivation and focus on the what these teams can and cannot do. What they can do is score. What they can't do is stop other teams from scoring. If the Eagles haven't figured it out yet, their defense's worst enemy is its offense. They're just too tired. Sure the Bears can't stop the run, but the faster the Eagles score, the weaker their defense will be and the faster the Bears will match touchdown for touchdown. Couple that with the fact that Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall are playing in my fantasy team's championship game, and you've got yourself a recipe for a wonderfully offensive Chicago Bears OVER 56(thousand) victory.
And yet one of these teams is probably going to the playoffs...
NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) over Cleveland Browns: For all intents and purposes, the season for both of these teams is over. The Browns showed some promise earlier in the year when they jumped out to a 3-2 start before losing 8 of their last 9 games. The Jets, on the other hand, would be in the playoff mix if only their 5-2 home record counted. Unfortunately, they've been 1-6 on the road. That being said, with this being the final home game for the Jets, and with Cleveland's best defensive player Joe Haden likely out for Sunday's match-up, we'll give up the small line, take the home team, and look for an OVER 40.5 much like we saw when the Jets played the Raiders two weeks ago.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5) over Indianapolis Colts: One of these days the Kansas City Chiefs are going to play offense and defense on the same weekend and then watch out world. I guess they did in Washington, but according to recent changes made to the Constitution of NFL bloggers I am no longer allowed to use Redskins games as examples to support or refute anything at all ever. Over the first half of the season, the Chiefs defense held everyone to under seventeen points per game, but since their loss to Denver, their defense has struggled to keep teams under 30. Fortunately, their offense suddenly started averaging 40, so they're still sitting at 11-3 and have a shot at the AFC West title. The Colts on the other hand seem to have wrapped up their division in Week 3 and have been playing hot/cold football ever since losing Reggie Wayne for the season. Yeah, I know - broken record, but the truth is the Colts have been awful on the road, losing their last two by an average of 22 points while allowing 40+ to their opponents. Look for the Chiefs to jump out to a huge lead and the Colts to battle back and miss the backdoor cover but provide enough for the OVER 44.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7) over Minnesota Vikings: The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL this season, but much like the Jets they're predictably so going 6-0 at home and winning games by an average of 16 points/game. The Vikings, on the other hand, have been a huge disappointment and have struggled with injuries and quarterback issues all year. Although they have found some rhythm with Matt Cassel behind center, Minnesota is still winless on the road this season (0-6-1) and 4-3 ATS. They are, however, 10-3-1 on the over/under so we're recommending the Bengals and the OVER 48 this week.
Denver Broncos (-10.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS: At the beginning of the season this looked like a premier late-season match-up. Now it looks like the Texans 13th straight loss. The good news is Matt Schaub is back behind center for the Houston Texans. The bad news is that's only good news for the Denver defense. Do not hesitate to lay the double digit points. Denver will be up by twenty at the half and will return to providing bettors returns on the OVER 51.5
Tennessee Titans (-5.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Neither one of these teams can stop the run, ranking 23rd and 30th respectively. The Titans, however, have a much better pass defense and have been the more consistent team throughout the year. Stats support the Jags who have covered three straight division games, but I'm going to wager that the lines were a little higher than this one which is why we're supporting the Titans and the UNDER 44 which has hit in 5 of these teams last 6 meetings. Besides, with 94% of the public currently backing the Jags, this is all but a lock.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Arizona Cardinals: Awww, wouldn't it be cute of Bruce Arians took the Arizona Cardinals to the playoffs in his first year? And wouldn't it add to the story if he could end the Seahawks ridiculously long home winning streak en route to said post-season. I almost bought into that delightful tale myself until I remembered that A) this line is begging us to take the Cardinals, B) Arizona hasn't beaten anyone with a winning record on the road, and C) It's the Seattle Seahawks who never ever take their foot off the gas pedal. They know the Cardinals need this game and they will match their intensity from the opening kick to the closing ass-kicking. Give up the points and witness greatness as the 'Hawks shutdown Arizona 34-7, just UNDER the 43 total.
DETROIT LIONS (-9) over New York Giants: Victor Cruz is out for Sunday's match-up in Detroit which means no salsa for Eli Manning to dip his football into. Fortunately, there's always the arms of the defense as a back-up plan. If the Lions (-13) weren't playing the only team in the NFC with a worse turnover differential (-17) we might think this line was too high. As it is, although the Lions are taking almost all of the public action this week, we just can't find it in our hearts to back the Giants again. Give up the points and pray that Stafford doesn't try to force the issue like he did on Monday Night. Take the UNDER 49, too, because the Giants aren't going to be scoring much.
Oakland Raiders (+10) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: The Raiders have covered 7 of their last 9 games against the Chargers, including 4 in a row in San Diego, and whenever we're citing recent stats we're always talking about worse teams than the one currently constituted. It's surprising the line is this high, and not surprising at all that 97% of the public is backing the Raiders. This always scares us, but we like the chances of a Chargers letdown after defeating the Broncos in Denver last Thursday. They'll get the win, but the Raiders will get the cover in an UNDER 50.5 heated division game.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (PK) over Pittsburgh Steelers: There is no line available nor has there been confirmation that Aaron Rodgers will be back under center. If there's any chance, we'll get our pick in on the Pack now and forever hold our peace. Under/Over/Whatever - if Rodgers is back you won't care what the score is.
New England Patriots (+2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: Both of these teams are coming off of unlikely endings to their games last week. The Ravens managed to eke out a field goal-a-thon on Monday Night while the Patriots - seemingly for the first time in history - lost a game in which Tom Brady had fifteen shots at the end zone in the final 30 seconds. Now, with neither team having clinched a playoff spot, these two familiar foes face off in the home-friendly confines of M & T Bank Stadium. Normally, we'd back the Ravens in this spot. However, New England is 28-12 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season, 8-1 ATS after playing their last game against a division rival, 35-17-1 ATS following a SU loss and 19-9 in their last 28 after failing to cover the spread. Basically, they rarely have two poor showings in a row. Baltimore is stellar in this spot, too, going 11-2 ATS at home after winning as a road dog and 15-5 ATS in their last twenty against teams with a winning record. When it's too good to be true on both sides of the ball, we'll take the points and the UNDER 45 as the Ravens win 23-21.
SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-12) over Atlanta Falcons: Let's keep this simple. The Atlanta Falcons are bad. The San Francisco Forty Niners are very good and getting better late. Atlanta has not won a road game all year while San Francisco has not lost a Monday Night Football game ever, going 8-0 ATS. Okay, maybe they lost but covered as dogs, but that's just splitting hairs. This is the last game Candlestick Park will ever host and you better believe the ghosts of Super Bowl pasts will come out and haunt the Falcons pedestrian defense all night long. Lay the big points, and follow the UNDER 45 trend which is 5-1 in SF's last 6 home games.
Good luck and May the Spreads Be With You All,
Vinny and Marco
PS: For those of you who are not TSZ Insiders but would like to see our Friday Five top confidence picks this week - which have gone 8-1-1 ATS the past two weeks and 11-3-1 since Week 13, please click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button, let us know you did at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com and we'll send you our picks. Any donation will be acceptable. Friday Fives will be available this afternoon.
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