Monday, April 22, 2013

Which Lopez Brother Would You Bang and Other Trick Questions: NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 4

Playoffs to Date: 5-5 ATS (after a 1-3 start)

Confidence Efficiency Rating (CER): 11/23 or .48

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I'm starting to feel like an old, 1970's telethon worker raising money for some random cause or a congressional filibuster, grasping at the next straw to keep myself talking and  my audience bored silly. NBA Basketball is nothing like the NFL - resources are more sparse, ATS stats less predictive, and there aren't nearly as many impressively mobile fat guys. Kendrick Perkins and Zach Randolph both lost their football bodies a la Charles Barkley. Thanks a lot Weight Watchers.  

Nonetheless, my fellow congress people, there are still bridges between the sports, even if it takes a few beers to make them magically appear. Yesterday afternoon, my buddies and I were talking about where Manti T'eo would fall in the draft, which naturally led to an extended discussion of why a star football player at a prestigious Division I program doesn't have multiple real girlfriends and explicit examples of how differently we'd be living his dream.

The bridge: the Lopez Brothers, Brook and Robin, of course. After talking Manti into the ground, someone posed the question, "Which Lopez brother do you think got more action in college?" Important question, right? Was it the more talented and NBA-ready Brook? 


Or was it his long-haired, fun-loving, Side Show Bob look-alike of a younger twin, Robin? 


The arguments went something like this:

"Dude, it's totally Brook. He's was the more talented player and the star of those Stanford teams. Who bangs the back-up when there's a guy heading to the NBA to make millions of dollars?"

"First of all, we're not drafting teams. Secondly, the exact same women who bang the drummers in bands. And finally, doesn't it stand to reason that Robin knew his ceiling was lower back then, probably didn't practice as much, wasn't nearly as driven, and had much more time on his hands. Plus, smart Stanford women understand economics - the guy that's in less demand is going to be more accessible. I say Robin all the way."

So now we ask you, TSZers. Which Lopez do you think scored more off the court? Which one would you bang? 

Never mind that they both have girls names and that Robin is now playing for the much heralded New Orleans Pelicans, the correct answer was C) Jennifer Lopez. 


Not ever, EVER to be confused with stand up comedian George's ex-wife Ann Serrano-Lopez

           Yikes - how excited was George to get those papers? 

We would, however, have also accepted Javier Lopez, because let's face it - he's a handsome man with one hell of a slider.


Now let's pick some freakin' basketball already. After digging through the ATS records of every team in the NBA, I discovered that - with the exception of Pacific Division teams which all had losing road ATS records - 17 of the remaining 25 teams played .500 or better ATS on the road during the 2012-13 season. That being said, we're still taking two homers and one roadie tomorrow. Here's how Day 4 shapes up.

NEW YORK KNICKS (-6.5) over Boston Celtics: This just feels like one of those series where analysts will write a team off because they were beaten badly twice on the road. Then said team, performs well enough at home to bring the series back to New York knotted up. New York was an outstanding ATS team at home this year and the Celtics were dismal against the line on the road. This will be the rout that has people talking sweep...until Game 3 in Boston. 

Confidence Rating: 3


Milwaukee Bucks (+14) over MIAMI HEAT: Although Miami won 27 in a row and had a league best 66 wins this season, their home ATS record hovers at 23-19 including Sunday's win. Meanwhile, like much of the rest of the league, Milwaukee owns a 21-20 road ATS record. In their four meetings this season, Miami only beat the Bucks by more than 10 points on one occasion. Even if the Heat build a substantial lead, the reserves will likely give it back towards the end of the fourth allowing the Bucks to cover. Sadly, losing by less than two touchdowns is as good as it gets for Bucks fans.

Confidence Rating: 2


DENVER NUGGETS (-7.5) over Golden State Warriors: I don't want to admit it, but the loss of David Lee is pretty. It's no accident he's been the best white fantasy basketball player in the league for the past decade. He does a little bit of everything and enough of everything else to make all of his teammates better. Although Jarrett Jack joked that strong forward is in his repetoire, I think it will take a game and a half plus home court advantage to adjust to Lee's absence. The Nuggets god-awful uniforms will be just enough to throw off the three-point shooting of Curry and Co. and allow Denver to cover at home. Boooooo.

Confidence Rating: 1


That's all for tonight, home fries. Hope this helps, or at the very least entertains.

Vinny and Marco

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