NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 11: What's the Big Deal About Jason Collins Being Happy?

                                 

I'm confused. What's all the hoopla about? Today, aging Washington Wizards veteran and former Stanford University All-American Jason Collins announced to the world that he is indeed happy, that he has always been happy, and that when he was younger being happy made him feel very uncomfortable. "I wish I wasn't the kid in the classroom raising his hand and saying 'I'm different,'" Collins explained, "If I had may way, someone else would have already done this. Nobody has, which is why I'm raising my hand."

While Kobe Bryant and many have been very supportive of Collins desire to be openly happy, some fellow athletes published tweets that took on a more dissenting tone such as, "I'm not saying it's right or wrong, I just don't understand happiness," or "Me personally, I'd be very uncomfortable with a happy teammate in the locker room."

                                
"He's so happy he makes me look sad," sad the usually smiling Dwight Howard

I think the real story here is that Jason Collins still plays for an NBA team. Raise your uncomfortable hand if you knew that?

All kidding aside, this is an historic moment in sports. While other active and retired athletes such as Greg Louganis, Martina Navratilova, and Sherryl Swoops have openly acknowledged their sexuality, Jason Collins became the first active player in the four major American sports to come out as gay, writing a first-person account on the Sports Illustrated website. It's bigger than any of us heterosexual sports fans, analysts, bloggers, or gamblers will ever comprehend. In a short amount of time, reactions to Collins coming out covered the spectrum.

                                          

ESPN analyst and resident douche bag (my opinion) Chris Broussard chimed in saying, "Personally, I don't believe that you can live an openly homosexual lifestyle, or like, premarital sex between heterosexuals … it says that that's a sin … I believe that's walking in open rebellion to God and to Jesus Christ," he said on the show. "So, I would not characterize that person as a Christian, because I don't think the Bible would characterize that person as a Christian."

                                          

Shut up Chris! Your face is a sin no religion should accept. Sounds a little like repressed, self-hating happiness to me. It's people like you who serve as a reminder that fear rather than hate is the opposite of love. You put the fuck in fuck off. Seriously.

On the other hand, as usual Metta World Peace was unusual saying, "Whether it's a free country or not, you should be free to act as you want to do as long as it's not violent. No matter what it is. I came here in a Cookie Monster shirt because I wanted to, and I was going to wear the pants and hat, to but I thought you guys would judge me. I didn't want Mitch [Kupchack] to judge me. So that's why I didn't wear it. But I should've wore it. You should be free to do and act how you want to act."

Way to go MWP.

                          

The truth is, Jason Collins should be applauded for his courage and willingness to pioneer where others have been prevented by the realities of fear and ignorance from experiencing the freedoms to which we are all entitled - to be ourselves and to openly express who we are to the world.

Good for Jason. I feel gay as hell that he had the courage to come out. And I'm also feeling pretty darn gay about our current stats through 10 days of NBA playoff picks.

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 22-11 ATS (4-0 ATS today)

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 49/73 or .67

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 10: 8-2 ATS 

Let's get to the Day 11 NBA Playoff Picks ATS.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (-5.5) over Memphis Grizzlies: Although Memphis boasts one of the best road ATS records in the NBA at 24-16-1, the Clippers have the identical home record. We believe this series will likely go the distance, which is why we're taking the home team to hold serve. In addition, L.A. was 32-9 at home this year and only one of those wins was decided by less than six points. We're rooting for the Grizz but we're take the Clipps in this one. Confidence Rating: 2

                           

Golden State Warriors (-7.5) over DENVER NUGGETS: If this line were lower, we might set our hearts aside and take Denver, but 7.5 points feels disrespectful to a team who has shot 53% from the field and played well in altitude twice already in this series.Denver did have the best home ATS record in the NBA this year at 28-13, but the Warriors have Mark Jackson who has more playoff experience than anyone on the floor and knows the importance of Game 5 when you're up 3-1. Even if the Warriors lose, they will not let Denver back into the series psychologically by getting blown out. Our deciding factor was the Game 5 result of the Dallas-Golden State game back in 2007 when the Warriors only lost by 6 then closed the series out two days later in Oracle. Take the points and watch the Curry magic carpet ride continue. Confidence Rating: 1

                 

Good luck, home fries. Be happy, be kind, and be free.

Vinny and Marco

NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 10: The Award for Handsomest Couple in the NBA Goes to...

My three year-old daughter and I like to play a game called Opposite World, a wonderful place where we would stay up all night and sleep all day, read books from the back to the front, unbrush our teeth (which is an effective trick), or only get dinner if we eat all of our dessert first. For some reason she thinks this is the hilarious. To be fair, however, she's a pretty easy crowd, laughing endlessly when I say things like "poopsicle" or when I mute the TV and pretend the basketball players can't hear each other. Today, the Lakers and Bucks often played the part perfectly.

                      

In Opposite World, the Miami Heat need all of their players to close out a series and they have to play hard in the beginning and the middle of games. In Opposite World, Milwaukee doesn't "match up well" with the Heat because apparently that doesn't mean anything there either. And in Opposite World, said Bucks get to wear shirts like this

                           

instead of the ones they received in the locker room this afternoon.

                       

In Opposite World, Dwight Howard makes 90% of his free throws and Kobe Bryant never got injured because bad things never happen there. In Opposite World, however, the Lakers still get swept by the Spurs because Steve Nash only makes 40% of his free throws and Metta World Peace is completely sane and very timid defensively.

                         
       "In Opposite World, I'm Kobe's favorite coach, too." 

In Opposite World tall men rule the NBA playoffs rather than the likes of Nate Robinson (34 points), Raymond Felton (27 points), and Ty Lawson (61 points over two games). In Opposite World Kevin Garnett is a deaf mute and Avery Bradley is a skilled decision-maker. Interestingly, in Opposite World Paul Pierce is exactly the same. And if you saw him play this afternoon you'll agree he always has been. No highs, no lows, just Paul. And that was enough, along with Jason Terry's 18 points on 7 for 10 shooting, to force Game 5.

                      
                        "Man, I've been tired for twenty years."

As for the Golden State-Denver series, I'm not usually one to kick a team while they're down, so I'm actually going to give an award to Denver Nuggets post player, Kosta Koufos, for being a member of the NBA's hands-down winner of Handsomest Couple in the NBA...



do I need to say in which world?

And finally, in Opposite World, Marco and I are terrible at handicapping NBA playoff basketball and aren't inspiring the admiration of readers near and far. In the real world, however, through nine days our stats would make members of Tim Donaghy's gambling ring green like a Celtic.

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 20-10 ATS (4-0 ATS today)

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING (CER): 45/67 or .67

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 9: 7-2 ATS 

This might be the hardest slate of games to handicap so far this post-season, but like we said yesterday, at this point in the first round it's important to take into consideration how you believe the series you are betting on is going to end. By seeing the finish line, you can better predict the path of games between now and then. For example,

BROOKLYN NETS (-5.5) over Chicago Bulls: Marco and I don't see this series ending in Brooklyn. We see that happening Wednesday in Chicago. The Nets did suffer a devastating loss on Saturday, but Deron Williams is still the best player in the series and the Nets still have more offensive weapons than Chicago. What they need to do and what they will do with their backs against the wall is match Chicago's intensity for four full quarters. This game might be close towards the end, but free throws down the stretch will cover the spread for the Nets. Confidence Rating: 3 (Most confident)

                               

Indiana Pacers (+1.5) over ATLANTA HAWKS: We missed this pick in Game 3 because we didn't have all the information. We didn't know Indiana hadn't won in Atlanta in eleven tries, and we didn't know that Vegas clearly hinted at that with the small line after two blowouts in Indy. This is our real gamble of the day. If Indiana really wants to be considered an eastern threat, they need to find a way to win this game. We believe they will and will close out the series back at home. Confidence Rating: 2

                             

HOUSTON ROCKETS (+2) over Oklahoma City Thunder: This series could easily be 2-1 Rockets the way the last two games have gone. Although Houston only managed to sneak into the playoffs, their home record throughout the season was a very respectable 29-12, including 24-17 ATS. The Thunder, on the other hand, hovered around .500 ATS on the road this year. I doubt Houston will fall behind by 27 points this time, which means they won't have to expend all their energy trying to climb back over the hill. Take the points and the series back to OKC where the Thunder will close it out in 5. Confidence Rating: 1

                              

May the spread be with us all,

Vinny and Maro

NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 9: The Black Leprechaun Appears and Grants the Bulls Three Overtimes

Frosted lucky Bulls. That game was magically delicious.

No amount of pink hearts, yellow moons, orange stars, blue diamonds, OR even purple horseshoes can explain how Chicago managed to come from behind to defeat the Brooklyn Nets in Game 4 this afternoon to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Trailing the Nets by twelve points with less than four minutes left in regulation, I was ready to begin drafting my Eating Crow afternoon edition of TSZ for both picking the Bulls and predicting a a low-scoring affair. Not only had Chicago's defense had been sub-par up to that point, but the Nets were extending and finishing plays with offensive boards, 50-50 plays, and shot-clock-expiring-three-point-prayers-by-seven-footers. The series appeared destined to head back east knotted at two until...

The notorious former Huskie, Knick, Celtic, Thunder, and Warrior Nate "The Black Leprechaun" Robinson appeared out of nowhere and said, "Did I hear somebody's trying to steal me lucky charms?

                    

Say whaaaaaat?

He then proceeded to rip off his old Celtics jersey and score 12 of the Bulls final 16 points in the quarter, firing up the United Center crowd, and helping Chicago send the game into overtime

               
                      "Suck my blarney stones, bitches."

And then another overtime...

                             
"O' be jaysus - someone put on the Cranberries because this loss is gonna linger." 

And another overtime - although he was technically fouled out by then - and the Bulls finally closed the deal with a spread covering 142-134 victory.

The next two games weren't nearly as interesting, with Memphis closing and covering late against the Clippers and the Pacers handing us our first Top Confident Pick loss in several days. The finale, however, turned today's schedule into a crap sandwich on an amazing, rustic, 9-grain, artisan bread when the Rockets came back from 27 down, almost won, but still managed to cover the three and a half point line. Thanks to said 3-1 ATS sandwich, our current stats are as follows:

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 16-10 ATS

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING: 35/57 or .61

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 8: 6-2 ATS 

At this point in the first round series, Marco and I begin to look at which team we think is going to win, when we think they're going to do it, and we work backwards from there. 

Miami Heat (-8.5) over MILWAUKEE BUCKS: From the outset we believed Miami would sweep this series. After that it became a matter of which games they would and would not cover - and while they've managed to cover two of three, we've managed to correctly predict all three outcomes. As hard as Milwaukee fights, Miami we defend harder. This game comes down to experience, and the defending champs know the advantage of extended rest this time of year and will do everything it takes to earn it. 
Confidence Rating: 4

                           
"C'mon Monta - we don't play defense in the woods either."

San Antonio Spurs (-10.5) over LOS ANGELES LAKERS: We did not think this series was going to be a sweep, but now we do. This double digit plus line is begging us to believe the Lakers somehow have one last stand in them. Too much offense versus not enough defense equals and early vacation in La La Land.

                                

The only question that remains is will this be Dwight Howard's last game as a Laker? Confidence Rating: 3

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (+1.5) over Denver Nuggets: This line worries us, but you all know we can't start picking against the Warriors now. Why are the Nuggets favored? Will their intensity be even greater than it was in Game 3 because their backs are against the wall? Does Vegas think Denver self-destructed more than Golden State earned the victory? We don't care. We're taking the Oracle crowd to deliver yet another devastating loss to the pedestrian post-season career of George Karl. What's up with that? He has thousands of regular season wins, but loses 65% in the playoffs. Does he exclusively coach over-achieving regular season teams? Confidence Rating: 2

                       

BOSTON CELTICS (+2.5) over New York Knicks: We might regret this one, too, but we want to believe - although it may need a triple bypass, several stints, or a full-fledged transplant - that Boston still has the heart of a champion. Does that mean this series isn't a foregone conclusion? No, it just means the Celtics like to party in the Big Apple when their season ends on Tuesday. Confidence Rating: 1

                  

Happy Betting, everyone.

Vinny and Marco

NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 8: I'll Have Some Spicy Curry With a Shot of Jack, Please

And bring my a Draymond Green Salad to start with one of those crunchy, Australian Bogettes.

After last night's gutsy, exhilarating, come-from-behind, spread-covering win, which was happening concurrently with the "Lost" Angeles Lakers embarrassing home loss, I was ready to trade in my purple and gold and pledge my undying loyalty to the Mark Jackson culture in Oak Town. Unfortunately, I tweeted Kobe a promise last week that I wouldn't make the full conversion until he retires. He tweeted back, "Post, post, post. Gasol, Gasol, Gasol. Jesus DH - make your f-ing free throws." It's kind of a code we have. I knew what he meant.

                          

Nonetheless, the conversion is imminent and my daughter will be spared the trans-generational sports brainwash inflicted upon me, and she will love all teams Northern Californian Bay Area. Or at least that's my trans-generational brainwash plan. She may hate sports all together, but I don't really see how that's possible when the San Francisco Giants pitching rotation is going to keep on winning World Series until she's in sixth grade. As for the Warriors, I want her to see Hold Everyone Else on Bench Back When Curry Makes a Shot Guy blossom into solid seventh or eighth man.

                    

Does it look like a precarious time to jump ship on the Lakers? Sure. When you're pre-game focuses on how you're going to make up for the loss of the injured Steve Blake, your season has gone terribly, terribly wrong. For the record, however, this has been a process and will continue to be a process until the Black Mamba slithers in to his cave once and for all. I needed a point of closure and if Dwight Howard is going to stick around and be the next franchise player, I will have no problem saying good-bye.

But enough about me, how about those Warriors? How about Jarrett Jack going from First Half Turnover Goat to Second Half Scoring Hero. How about Steph Curry's ability to shake the cloak-like defense and traps, pick his spots, still shoot almost 50%, and dole out 11 dimes. And how about North Carolina head coach Roy Williams standing on the sidelines of his home basketball court (complete with paintings of fans on all four walls) saying "Well, gosh, that's the guy I thought I'd recruited," every time Harrison Barnes scored.

                       

Oh, and how about those Knicks and Spurs. I guess. More importantly, how about the fact that we have four games on the schedule today, and Marco and I haven't had a losing day since the opening night. Not bad for a couple of football pseudo-gurus. Let's get to today's action.

POST-SEASON RECORD TO DATE: 13-9 ATS

CONFIDENCE EFFICIENCY RATING: 29/47 or .62

TOP CONFIDENCE PICKS THROUGH DAY 7: 6-1 ATS 

Indiana Pacers (-2) over ATLANTA HAWKS: I think my analysis could best be summed up with the word "Duh." Why would the Hawks, with the vacation light at the end of the tunnel blinding them in both eyes, want to take this series back to Indy? Confidence Rating: 4

                     
                                  See you later, Josh.

CHICAGO BULLS (-2.5) over Brooklyn Nets: Sorry B-town - you might be up-scaling your residents, but you still have a long way to go to match the basketball caliber that is the Chicago Bulls. There will be no blown 12-point first quarter lead nor will there be a late back door cover. The only certainty I see is a Chicago win and quite possibly the lowest scoring game in NBA playoff history. Confidence Rating: 3

                    


MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (-3.5) over Los Angeles Clippers: This series is going seven games, so until then we're probably sticking with the home team. This isn't about players or coaching, it's about the team psychology of being down 2-1. I don't think the Clippers have the step-on-their-throats championship mentality (yet), and Memphis knows what it means to go down 3-1. The Grizz will defend serve and send this back to L.A. knotted at 2. Confidence Rating: 2

                     



HOUSTON ROCKETS (+3.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder: Unless Derick Fisher has been visiting the fountain of youth, the loss of Russell Westbrook has to impact at least one game. Houston gained confidence in Game 2, challenging the Thunder at home. Watch McHale's coaching genius and the three-point shooting of the Rockets light up their crowd. It will be come throw-back, "Oh What a Feeling," commercial night at the Toyota Center.

                 
                            "Gooooooooooooo Rockets!" 

Happy weekend, everyone. Enjoy your friends, your family, and our basketball playoffs.

Vinny and Marco

NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 7: The Way of the Pessimistic Warrior

Poor Marco.

He's a life long Golden State Warriors fan who is so unfamiliar with success that he actually organized a funeral for the team when it was announced that David Lee was out for the series. As a relatively new Golden State convert/bandwagon jumper, I tried to infuse Marco with some of my optimism the day before the Warriors shocked the NBA world in Denver, but it was no use. It was like talking to a Cubs fan, and 1975 may as well have been 1908 because in either case Marco wasn't born yet.

Now, in the wake of a shooting performance so stellar analysts are drawing comparisons between Curry/Thompson and the legendary New York Knicks "Rolls Royce Backcourt" of Earl Monroe and Walt Frazier, Marco is still reluctant pick his Warriors...at home...with a crowd so intoxicating they inspired the early exit of a one-seed who dared enter Oracle back in '07. In fact, Marco is watching Game 3 with his fellow pessimists, and I'm pretty sure they not only dress in anticipatory black suits, but they also bring flasks of tears (no crying in front of each other) from previous gut-wrenching losses and covertly splash some into their beers if things look as though they're going to turn out "like they usually do."

                

Here's the reality of your half empty cup, Marco. NBA playoff series more often than not come down to the team with the best player or players on it. Although Denver's Andre Iguadala is an impressive athlete, Stephen Curry is the best player on the floor at any given time. Iguadala can jump higher, reach farther, and bench press more, but he can't seem to make free throws. Meanwhile, Curry can not only make any shot on the floor he can make opposing guards get lost in those...

                           

Sorry, I forgot what I was saying. What color are those eyes anyway?

Don't worry Marco, it's time to break out your old "Believe" shirt, because the Warriors will be playing in San Antonio by the middle end of next week.

Post-Season Record to Date: 11-8 ATS

Confidence Efficiency Rating (CER): 24/41 or .59

Top Confidence Picks Through Day 6: 5-1 ATS (AKA Money)

San Antonio Spurs (-4.5) over LOS ANGELES LAKERS: Steve Blake out indefinitely. Steve Nash doubtful. Steve Fisher moustachioed. And Steve Martin hilarious. I don't think this game merits a whole lot of analysis anymore. In lieu of the Darius Morris era starting tomorrow, I say the Lakers should bring the Fab Five back for one more start - make a little history.

                      

Oh wait, Juwan is still collecting rings in Miami. Never mind. Confidence Rating: 3 (most confident)

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-1) over Denver Nuggets: Well, they're aren't going to lose by half a point, so we'll take the push if we have to. Please see all the reasons above in addition to the surprising emergence of Harrison Barnes soft shooting touch. The Warriors will win so big, the league is going to give them a bye to the conference finals.

                               

Remember that? Me neither, but it's the only Google image out there left from the 1975 championship game. Side bet - they'll have more pictures when the Warriors win their next one. Confidence Rating: 2

BOSTON CELTICS (-3) over New York Knicks: As a rule, if a line is ever smaller than the average number of times Kevin Garnett says mother fucker in a game (which is 4.3), then I take the Celtics and lay the points. This is a game where most of the action will be on the New York Knicks because of their convincing wins at home. The problem is, teams with their backs against the wall, especially experienced ones coached by Doc Rivers and led by Paul Pierce will play much harder than relaxed teams from the Big Apple that have a stranglehold on the series. I have no doubt the Knicks win this series, just not this game. Confidence Rating: 1

                      

See you tomorrow, fellow gamblers. May the spread be with us all.

Vinny and Marco

NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 6: Tim Donaghy Blows Whistle on Gambling Ring

Then starts his own Internet gambling site. No joke. It's called Refpicks.com, it boasts a 64% success rate, and it's comprised of 10 other handicappers/former refs I can only imagine Donaghy met while serving his 11 month prison sentence in Pensacolo Florida for his role in fixing NBA basketball games ten years ago. Or at the Special Prison Olympics - not sure which.

                            
                              Me Like-y Bet-y

Anyone who reads TSZ knows that I love to make shit up as much as the next guy. Love it! If I knew I could recruit enough writers, I would happily morph this site into a sports-only Onion, which would continue to include our gambling advice because, truth be told, it's only a smidgen above fiction. This, I kid you not, is real. Click on the link - maybe you'll get better picks. Maybe Donaghy still has some boys on the inside. Maybe 64% with the combined efforts of 11 self-proclaimed experts is really worth paying for. Judging by the way they spell LABRON James, however, I'd think twice about that last maybe.

          
      Maybe she (LaBron) did influence Game 2

Well, Tim, I guess the 12-Step meetings in prison didn't take. I say as long as he's being an honest degenerate gambler - good for him. At least he's giving advice rather than duping people. If Alex Rodriquez began pioneering a movement for mandatory labeling of "alternative" supplements or Ben Rothlesberger started teaching self-defense classes to young women, I would applaud them too.

Now let's see how our numbers stack up against the refs.

Post-Season to Date: 9-7 ATS (8-4 since Day 2)

Confidence Efficiency Rating: 20/35 or .57

Top Confidence Picks to Date: 4-1 ATS

That last number is not only impressive, but it officially qualifies Marco and ,me to be NBA referees. Unfortunately, after we both aced our Wonderlic's, we made made verbal commitments to NFL teams to be their unpaid, sixth string quarterbacks.

Miami Heat (-7.5) over MILWAUKEE BUCKS: Donaghy's crew was very upset about fellow Irishman, Mike Dunlevy, nailing the three pointer in Miami and giving the Bucks the back door cover as time expired. Rumor has it Tim was sitting on his couch at home, in full uniform, whistle in mouth, blowing it like crazy and calling a foul on Chris Webber. To no avail. There is a psychology to Game 3's, and nobody understands that better than a defending champion and three-time MVP. LEBRON James will not let the Milwaukee Bucks back into the series. Look for Miami to open up a big lead early and never look back. Confidence Rating: 3 (Most Confident)

                          

CHICAGO BULLS (-3.5) over Brooklyn Nets: My favorite part of Game 2 in this series was watching how fired up the Chicago Bulls bench got about defensive stands. I'm pretty sure they just sat their mute and unimpressed when their team scored, but a steal, a shot clock violation, or a Nets turnover, and they went nuts. I don't care if Derick Rose ever comes back - I just want to watch this team stop other teams for as long as possible. Confidence Rating: 2

                 

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (-4.5) over LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: We figure if we keep betting on Memphis, we're bound to win eventually. The Grizzlies are a stellar defensive squad, they have a respectable home record ATS but an even better record as a favorite and 38-28. This series is going to be much longer than Clipper fans would like to think. It's another psychology game. The Grizzlies know they let one slip away and are experienced enough to reclaim it. From the opening tip-off, look for Defensive player of the Year winner, Marc Gasol, to take control of this game and lead the Grizz to victory.

                     

Confidence Rating: 1 (if you couldn't tell by my ambivalence)

Good luck and happy gambling, TSZers.

Vinny and Marco

Top Ten Best Jobs to Get Fired From: NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 5

Forget the other nine, the uncontested winner this year is the Los Angeles Lakers.

                              

In what appears to be a reunion based firmly in mutual heartbreak at the hands NBA superstars LeBron James and Dwight Howard, Mike Brown has quickly landed on his feet (albeit in Cleveland), signing a 20 million dollar contract over five years to build a dynasty around All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving and, of course, his old buddy from L.A. reserve small forward Luke Walton - the real driving force behind the Lakers championships in 2008 and 2010.

             

I sure hope Brown's mega-contract came with a parking spot for his Delorean, because he, Marty McFly, and this guy are going to need it in about three years when Irving gets too big for his frustrated, depressed, smog-filled, Cleveland britches and takes his talents to North Beach - future home of the San Francisco Warriors. Mark my words Mullet Man, I own a Delorean and I know for a fact Mike Brown is your guy. Unfortunately, he's had weapons for the past decade, but he still doesn't know how to use them.

Fortunately for all of us, all we have to do is relish the present and predict tomorrow's future.

Post-Season Record to Date: 7-6 ATS (but 6-3 ATS since Day 1)

Confidence Efficiency Rating: 16/29 or .55

Wednesday's NBA Playoff schedule brings us three more Game 2's, of which we firmly believe all three home teams will win and cover. I know - we're learning fast. Here goes.


INDIANA PACERS (-7.5) over Atlanta Hawks: Are the Hawks still a basketball team? I thought they merged with New Jersey and moved to Brooklyn. I think this series might be the most foregone conclusion of all. I could see Milwaukee stealing a game at home, Houston going Lin-sane for a night, or even the Lakers providing a single Hollywood ending before meeting their maker in a fiery, Shakespearean, Indy film ending. Not the Hawks, not on Indiana's watch. And not with the Pacers drinking the media Kool Aid that they are the only team that has a shot at beating the Heat. The Pacers want to be ready and rested by winning every game until the conference finals. Confidence Rating: 3 (Most Confident)

                           


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-10.5) over Houston Rockets: In Game 1's post-game press conference, former OKC guard James Harden said the Houston Rockets' 29 point loss was a "good thing," clarifying that they now had plenty of tape to figure out what they did wrong. I hope Harden enjoys the occasional deja vu, because in OKC at playoff time, there's no such thing as too much of a "good thing." Much like the Miami Heat, the Thunder have the capability of cranking up their defensive intensity and putting teams away early, late, or in the middle. Couple that with OKC being a top five Home ATS team and you have a recipe for covering. Confidence Rating: 2

                         

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-8.5) over Los Angeles Lakers: The Spurs have almost as many offensive weapons as the Lakers have nagging injuries. Couple that with the Lakers atrocious ATS Road record (15-26) and the fact that D'Antoni has suddenly decided to limit the playing time of his secret weapon, Earl Clark, and you have another 12-15 point win for the home team. Don't worry, Mr. D'Antoni, the Suns will probably rehire you next year. Confidence Rating: 1

                        

So there you have it, ladies and gentlemen. Prone to hyperbole? Perhaps. Or are we just unafraid to put our four day old NBA reputations on the line.

You decide.

Vinny and Marco

Which Lopez Brother Would You Bang and Other Trick Questions: NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 4

Playoffs to Date: 5-5 ATS (after a 1-3 start)

Confidence Efficiency Rating (CER): 11/23 or .48

                      

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I'm starting to feel like an old, 1970's telethon worker raising money for some random cause or a congressional filibuster, grasping at the next straw to keep myself talking and  my audience bored silly. NBA Basketball is nothing like the NFL - resources are more sparse, ATS stats less predictive, and there aren't nearly as many impressively mobile fat guys. Kendrick Perkins and Zach Randolph both lost their football bodies a la Charles Barkley. Thanks a lot Weight Watchers.  

Nonetheless, my fellow congress people, there are still bridges between the sports, even if it takes a few beers to make them magically appear. Yesterday afternoon, my buddies and I were talking about where Manti T'eo would fall in the draft, which naturally led to an extended discussion of why a star football player at a prestigious Division I program doesn't have multiple real girlfriends and explicit examples of how differently we'd be living his dream.

The bridge: the Lopez Brothers, Brook and Robin, of course. After talking Manti into the ground, someone posed the question, "Which Lopez brother do you think got more action in college?" Important question, right? Was it the more talented and NBA-ready Brook? 

                           

Or was it his long-haired, fun-loving, Side Show Bob look-alike of a younger twin, Robin? 

                         

The arguments went something like this:

"Dude, it's totally Brook. He's was the more talented player and the star of those Stanford teams. Who bangs the back-up when there's a guy heading to the NBA to make millions of dollars?"

"First of all, we're not drafting teams. Secondly, the exact same women who bang the drummers in bands. And finally, doesn't it stand to reason that Robin knew his ceiling was lower back then, probably didn't practice as much, wasn't nearly as driven, and had much more time on his hands. Plus, smart Stanford women understand economics - the guy that's in less demand is going to be more accessible. I say Robin all the way."

So now we ask you, TSZers. Which Lopez do you think scored more off the court? Which one would you bang? 

Never mind that they both have girls names and that Robin is now playing for the much heralded New Orleans Pelicans, the correct answer was C) Jennifer Lopez. 

                               

Not ever, EVER to be confused with stand up comedian George's ex-wife Ann Serrano-Lopez

                             

           Yikes - how excited was George to get those papers? 

We would, however, have also accepted Javier Lopez, because let's face it - he's a handsome man with one hell of a slider.

                                      

Now let's pick some freakin' basketball already. After digging through the ATS records of every team in the NBA, I discovered that - with the exception of Pacific Division teams which all had losing road ATS records - 17 of the remaining 25 teams played .500 or better ATS on the road during the 2012-13 season. That being said, we're still taking two homers and one roadie tomorrow. Here's how Day 4 shapes up.

NEW YORK KNICKS (-6.5) over Boston Celtics: This just feels like one of those series where analysts will write a team off because they were beaten badly twice on the road. Then said team, performs well enough at home to bring the series back to New York knotted up. New York was an outstanding ATS team at home this year and the Celtics were dismal against the line on the road. This will be the rout that has people talking sweep...until Game 3 in Boston. 

Confidence Rating: 3

                      

Milwaukee Bucks (+14) over MIAMI HEAT: Although Miami won 27 in a row and had a league best 66 wins this season, their home ATS record hovers at 23-19 including Sunday's win. Meanwhile, like much of the rest of the league, Milwaukee owns a 21-20 road ATS record. In their four meetings this season, Miami only beat the Bucks by more than 10 points on one occasion. Even if the Heat build a substantial lead, the reserves will likely give it back towards the end of the fourth allowing the Bucks to cover. Sadly, losing by less than two touchdowns is as good as it gets for Bucks fans.

Confidence Rating: 2

                 

DENVER NUGGETS (-7.5) over Golden State Warriors: I don't want to admit it, but the loss of David Lee is pretty. It's no accident he's been the best white fantasy basketball player in the league for the past decade. He does a little bit of everything and enough of everything else to make all of his teammates better. Although Jarrett Jack joked that strong forward is in his repetoire, I think it will take a game and a half plus home court advantage to adjust to Lee's absence. The Nuggets god-awful uniforms will be just enough to throw off the three-point shooting of Curry and Co. and allow Denver to cover at home. Boooooo.

Confidence Rating: 1

                       

That's all for tonight, home fries. Hope this helps, or at the very least entertains.

Vinny and Marco